Around The Barrel – Crude Oil Draws -10.584Mbbls Erasing US Commercial Crude Storage Gains For 2023

EIA reported a draw of -10.584Mbbls, following on from last week’s -6.134Mbbls. Domestic US oil production figures stayed at their highest since 2020 at 12.8mbpd. The WTI Futures Hub at Cushing had a draw of -1.504Mbbls. U.S. total oil products supplied last 4 weeks averaged 21.2 mln bpd, +6.1% vs year-ago period. Gasoline stocks rose+0.214Mbbls and distillate rose +1.235Mbbls in inventories. Refinery utilization fell -1.20% to 90.2%. All the year-to-date increase in US commercial crude stockpiles has all but gone, inventories 422.9m last week vs 420.6m end of Dec 2022.

Oil Volatility

U.S. WTI crude futures had drifted higher over $81bbl with risk assets fueled by weaker US data (Sentiment and JOLTS) lowering bond yields. API reported a 600kbbl SPR build, gasoline & distillates builds, and 11mbbl plus crude draw heading into refinery maintenance season & Labor Day ending summer drive/vacation time. With winter nearing, good to build diesel Robert Gibbons points out. Last week WTI settled 1% lower at $79.83/bbl for the week, down for a second straight weekly decline, after a seven-week rally.

Last week October Brent crude fell 0.4% this week to $84.48/bbl. Prices saw a late rally however on Friday with a fire shutting down Marathon Petroleum’s (MPC) Garyville plant in Louisiana, the third-largest U.S. oil refinery. Nymex front-month diesel fuel futures surged +4.8% Friday to $3.3075/gal, the highest settlement since January, gasoline prices jumped also with RBOB’s front-month contract closing +3.4% to $2.8764/gal, up 1.9% for the week. Baker Hughes reported the number of active drilling rigs again fell sharply this week.

A factor supporting oil prices has been China, the world’s biggest oil importer is still consuming to the point Chinese product inventories are tight with gasoline stocks lower for 13 consecutive weeks. Operating oil rigs operating in the U.S. fell for the tenth time in 11 weeks to the lowest since March 2022, according to Baker Hughes.

The energy complex closed last week with WTI futures down -0.55% for the week. Gasoline up +1.14% Brent down -0.01%, and heating oil rose +4.98%. (Prices w/w at 16:00 ET close)

The current WTI futures move began when it bounced off its 50-day moving average (71.29) through resistance from near its 200-day moving average (77.18).

The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) closed the w/e 8/25/23 -1.3%.

Top 10 gainers in energy and natural resources during the past 5 days: (ELIQ) +48.4%, (PFIE) +31.4%, (PPTA) +25.7%, (ESTE) +19%, (EOSE) +17.4%, (HMY) +15.4%, (DRD) +12%, (UEC) +11.4%, (UROY) +11.1%, (SBSW) +10.4%.

Top 10 decliners in energy and natural resources during the past 5 days: (FMST) -37.1%, (HE) -29.8%, (BATL) -18.7%, (PBT) -14.5%, (SMR) -12.3%, (BPT) -12.1%, (PVL) -12.1%, (MMLP) -11.8%, (VTNR) -11.7%, (AMRC) -11%.

The key commodities continue to ignore weak data out of China that routinely triggers more calls for more policy stimulus. Concerns on the global economy deepen with the aggressive Central bank hiking as we saw with the weak global PMIs reports.

Around The Barrel Contents

Click on the links below to navigate to the relevant section.

  1. DOE & API Petroleum Storage Forecast Matrix
  2. Crude Oil Quick Summary
  3. Weekly DoE US Petroleum Storage Report Breakdown
  4. API Crude Inventories
  5. Cushing Oil Stocks
  6. Crude Imports
  7. Crude Exports
  8. Gasoline
  9. Rig Watch
  10. Crude Oil Production
  11. Weather
  12. WTI Crude Oil Futures Technical Analysis
  13. DCOT Report
  14. Option Volatility and Gamma
  15. Key EIA and CME Dates

The risks of global recession threaten the demand picture and with higher rates push the likelihood of a meaningful recession higher. In 2023 the market has in the background the obtuse geopolitical framework framed by Russia’s Ukraine invasion, Germany’s inept energy policy, and Iran and China pursuing aggressive directions.


The Week Ahead

DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report Forecast

  • via TradersCommunity.com
  • Report Date 8/16/23
  • Release Date Wednesday August 23, 2023, at 10:30 A.M

Highlights

  • Crude EIA -10.584M Exp -2.191M Prior -5,960M API -11.486M
  • Cushing EIA -1.504M Exp -2.010M Prior -0.837M API -2.23M
  • Gasoline EIA -0.214M Exp -1.250M Prior -0.262M API +1.400M
  • Distillate EIA +1235M Exp -1.000M Prior +0.296 API +2.460M
  • Refinery Utilization -1.20% to 90.2% Exp +0.5%
  • Production +100kbpd to 12,800kbpd (13.10 ATH)
  • SPR adds .594M (Recovering Off Lowest Since Aug 1983)
  • NB: Crude oil supply adjustment 8/18/23 +509 day – EIA
  • US petroleum inventories (crude, SPR, refined products) inventories ffell by 7.436mb w/w to 1,604.291mb last week – EIA

Note in bbls *exp = Reuters poll estimates adjusted for API shift, except Cushing

EIA reported a draw of -10.584Mbbls. following on from last week’s -6.134Mbbls. Domestic US oil production figures held at the highest since 2020 to 12.8mbpd. The WTI Futures Hub at Cushing had a draw of -1.504Mbbls. U.S. total oil products supplied last 4 weeks averaged 21.2 mln bpd, +6.1% vs yr-ago period. Gasoline stocks rose+0.214Mbbls and distillate rose +1.235Mbbls in inventories. Refinery utilization fell -1.20% to 90.2%. All the year-to-date increase in US commercial crude stockpiles has all but gone, inventories 422.9m last week vs 420.6m end of Dec 2022.

Energy Price Matrix

Energy Market Performance

US Crude Oil Quick Look

Oil prices continue to be subject to geopolitical bifurcation dynamics with sudden changes that accompanies the onset of chaos. The unexpected knock-ons continue with imperfect bifurcation with political influence and personal vagaries from world leaders such as Putin, Scholz and Biden in addition to routine crude dynamics.

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via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen
American commercial crude stockpiles plunged a week in August by 17 million barrels — the largest weekly drop in data going back more than 40 years. @JavierBlas

Final 2022 Inventory

  • Commercial crude oil inventories were up ~2.8m bbls
  • SPR inventories were down ~ 221.3m bbls
  • Gasoline inventories were down ~10.1m bbls
  • Distillates were down ~6.5m bbls
  • Jet Fuel inventories were down ~0.9m bbls
  • Propane was up ~14.5m bbls

Weekly DoE US Petroleum Storage Report Breakdown

Weekly Storage via DOE

with RonH Data ‏@Ronh

  Via RonH at Ron H Public Tableau Link

API Crude Oil Inventories

US petroleum (Crude, SPR, oil products) inventories in million barrels (EIA)

Note June 8: US Department of Energy (DoE) plans to issue a new solicitation to purchase an additional 3 million barrels of crude oil for the strategic stockpile. These barrels are scheduled for delivery in September. In August, the DoE awarded contracts for the purchase of 3 million barrels of crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) at an average price of $73 per barrel.

US petroleum (crude, SPR, refined products) inventories fell by 7.436mb w/w to 1,604.291mb last week – EIA

US total crude oil inventories (both commercial and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) have fallen to a 36-year low, dropping below the previous bottom set in 2001 via Bloomberg

Cushing Oil Stocks

Cushing, OK is the hub for the most heavily traded US oil Futures contract – West Intermediate Crude – WTI so for that reason we pay special attention to the storage there.

Cushing Storage Tanks
Cushing Storage Tanks

API Cushing Stocks

API Cushing

Weekly Update via RonH Data ‏@Ronh999

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Cushing OK Crude Oil Storage Stocks

US Oil Import Export

Imports

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US crude imports by origin in kbpd (incl. w/w changes)

  • Canada -427 to 3405
  • Mexico -343 to 437
  • Saudi Arabia +241 to 462
  • Colombia +5 to 295
  • Iraq -51 to 232
  • Ecuador +136 to 328
  • Nigeria +55 to 144
  • Brazil +47 to 245
  • Libya -85 to 0
  • 8/30/23

Exports

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US crude exports surged in March according to US Customs data.

Exports to Asia hit 2MMBD for the first time as China took in almost half of those volumes. Exports to China have been depressed since 2020 and they have surged for the first time since then. @OilyticsData

US exports of crude and refined products in mbpd (EIA) – Record High ~11.776 million b/d.
US crude exports rose to record 4.146mbpd in October – EIA

The Russia, India and China mix

Russia said they would cut production by 500kbbls in March just as Russia launched its heaviest bombardment on southern Ukraine since the start of the war, as officials warned Moscow’s major offensive had ‘definitely’ started. There is a clear use of oil as a weapon by Putin. India and China being Russia’s main customers are not filling the demand void. Not hard to join the dots.

EU’s sanctions on Russian refined products were implemented Feb. 5. The ban follows a similar price cap on crude shipments introduced last year. European countries have pushed to lower the crude price cap ($60) on Moscow even further, but the Biden administration said it was inclined to oppose the move. 

Futures have been ignoring large US builds and have chosen hope with China opening up rather than negative morose from China’s economic implosion and the Central Bank maelstrom. Europe has been addressing energy dependance on Russia since the Ukraine invasion. President Vladimir Putin said Russia would immediately stop oil supply to countries that support the G7 members price cap on exports of Russian oil.

Since the cap, if not before Russian exports have been redirected to India and China in particular. Russian crude exports into India rose by 260kbd m/m in December to a record 1.2mbd. January exports are on-track to nearly 1.3mbd of Russian crude. Russian Exports to China were 70kbd in December, down nearly 27%m/m. We have seen Malaysia increase exports well beyond its own output to China. In turn China has exported products such as distillates back to Europe.

US Gasoline Consumers

Input to Refineries

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Update: PADD 3 Refinery Utilization

7/19/23 @staunovo

US consumers bought 380.9 million gallons of gasoline per day last week. That is +20.0 mil YoY.

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US consumers spent $1,452.2 million dollars per day for gasoline last week. That is $+71.3 mil YoY

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US avg retail price for gasoline was $3.813 last week. That is -0.014 YoY.

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Rig Watch

Baker Hughes Weekly North American Rigs Report

  • US Baker Hughes Rig Count Aug 25: 632 (prev 642)
  • Rotary Oil Rigs Aug 25: 512 (prev 520)
  • Rotary Gas Rigs Aug 25: 112 (prev 117)

US Oil Rigs w/w changes by key shale basins

  • Permian -6 to 317
  • Eagle Ford -1 to 50
  • Williston unchanged at 32
  • Cana Woodford -1 to 16
  • DJ Niobrara unchanged at 14

US oil rigs and frac spread (Baker Hughes/Primary Vision)

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US oil rigs and frac spread (Baker Hughes/Primary Vision)
  • Permian Basin rigs pulled off at the fastest pace in three years amid consolidation and slow return in oil demand.
  • Rigs targeting both crude and natural gas in the West Texas and southeast New Mexico region declined by 7 to 320 this week, according to data released Friday by Baker Hughes Co.
  • It’s the biggest weekly drop in the Permian since June 2020. – Bloomberg

Canada Rigs

  • Canada’s active rig count rose to 188 on August 25, an increase of 7 rigs compared to last Friday.
  • This is the third week of increased rig activity in a row and reflects August activity trends observed in prior years.
  • Alberta’s active rig count increased from 128 on August 18 to 133 this morning, a 3.9% jump
  • Saskatchewan’s rig count grew by 2.
  • BC’s active rig count fell by 1, settling at 18 as of this morning.
  • Oil rigs increased by 2 between August 18 and August 25, reaching 117 active oil rigs.
  • Gas rigs also rose week-over-week, reaching 62 today.
  • The number of rigs classified as “Other” or “Unknown” grew by 2 over the same period, settling at 9 rigs.
  • Today’s rig utilization rate is 43.4%, an slight increase from 43.3% at last week’s end. The total number of rigs rose from 418 to 433, a 3.6% jump. This suggests that, compared to last week, a larger pool of rigs is being more effectively deployed.
  • BOE Report

International oil rigs ex North America

International oil rigs ex North America -13 m/m to 722 in July via Baker Hughes

  • Oman +4
  • Norway, Kuwait +3
  • Turkey, Egypt, Indonesia-2
  • Abu Dhabi -6
  • Mexico -11
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Ministry of Energy: Saudi Arabia will extend the voluntary cut of one million barrels per day for another month to include September that can be extended or extended and deepened.

Riyadh, August 03, 2023, SPA — An official source from the Ministry of Energy announced that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia will extend the voluntary cut of one million barrels per day, which has gone into implementation in July, for another month to include the month of September that can be extended or extended and deepened. In effect, the Kingdom’s production for the month of September 2023 will be approximately 9 million barrels per day. The source also noted that this cut is in addition to the voluntary cut previously announced by the Kingdom in April 2023, which extends until the end of December 2024.
The source confirmed that this additional voluntary cut comes to reinforce the precautionary efforts made by OPEC Plus countries with the aim of supporting the stability and balance of oil markets.
–SPA

KSA Ministry of Energy 15:51 LOCAL TIME 12:51 GMT

US Oil Production

August 9 2023
US crude production forecast of EIA STEO August vs July in mbpd

US Oil Field Production UNCH bpd at 12.80mbpd (New Benchmark adj)

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North Dakota oil production was at 1.134mbpd in May, -0.2% m/m, +6.7% y/y – state

OPEC Crude Oil Production

OPEC+

Ministry of Energy: Saudi Arabia will extend the voluntary cut of one million barrels per day for another month to include September that can be extended or extended and deepened

Riyadh, August 03, 2023, SPA — An official source from the Ministry of Energy announced that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia will extend the voluntary cut of one million barrels per day, which has gone into implementation in July, for another month to include the month of September that can be extended or extended and deepened. In effect, the Kingdom’s production for the month of September 2023 will be approximately 9 million barrels per day. The source also noted that this cut is in addition to the voluntary cut previously announced by the Kingdom in April 2023, which extends until the end of December 2024.
The source confirmed that this additional voluntary cut comes to reinforce the precautionary efforts made by OPEC Plus countries with the aim of supporting the stability and balance of oil markets.
–SPA

KSA Ministry of Energy 15:51 LOCAL TIME 12:51 GMT

June OPEC+ meeting agenda

OPEC+ meeting had some angst early with African nations wanting a change to baseline. The resolution was Saudi Arabia said Sunday it will make an additional voluntary cut of 1Mbbls of crude oil starting in July as a temporary measure initially. That came with the press conference, OPEC+ also said in a statement it will keep official production targets unchanged for the rest of this year and limit combined oil output from January-December 2024 to 40.46M bbl/day. Saudi production would be down to 9Mbbl/day, which would be its lowest output level since June 2021. In 2024 they will change they may lower with KSA taking a voluntary cut depending on baselines

  • Saturday OPEC ministerial meeting starting at 13:00 CET
  • Sunday OPEC+ JMMC starting at 11:00 CET
  • Sunday OPEC+ ministerial meeting starting at 12:00 CET

Weather Watch

Gulf of Mexico


WTI Crude Oil Futures Technical Analysis

via KnovaWave @KnovaWave

US Crude Oil (WTI)

Daily:  WTI Crude Oil tested the 77.50 (near 200dma) and option confluence back through the minor pennant resistance. The move comes after the sharp spillover emotive wave up week creating a clear break over the 50 dma, Kijun and Tenkan kiss of life. The move up came after completing the correction in 3 wave from gap fill and fail of the daily bull flag back in Oct/Nov. For bulls needs to break above those descending levels for higher. We are in a completive mode with this impulse, it’s a question of degree on the topside, use the Murrey math 240/60 grid. From there down in 3 waves, completing a C or IV? Support is previous lows. The bear case is the high was a complete 5.

Weekly: WTI crude Oil futures simply gathered downside momentum since it spat the key 61.8% with impulse, having plunged more than $60 off the June highs. WTI was never able to take on its sphere of influence which is causing resistance now as it has bounced off the double bottom through Kijun. The overhead is 50wma for the upside. Recall WTI completed 3 waves and spat the 50wma after the since filled OPEC+ gap up underscoring its weakness. Recent lows underscore the support, no less than 5 times since April 2021. Risk support is the grid. Long term 61.8% target fueled the spit of a spit by after rebalanced Chikou sated. Resistance 50wma, Support Weekly Kijun, tenkan, cloud and Murrey Math levels and previous breaks (off monthly). Bear case is Wave 5 complete.

The key is crowd behavior to help tell the story which in energy is often around geopolitics. A great example of why we watch ABC corrections and from here we get the energy from the break being balanced. This move that was powered by 50 dma Tenkan spit of a spit – hence the fractal energies reverberations.

These are special times, recall “After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all-time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications.” Above we have Murrey Math time and price

What we broke…….

Crude Oil in the past quarter built a huge bull flag. We watch if the recent break was false, or we fail. Very clear pattern.

The focus remains 85.61-88.01 a region defined by the 2013 low, the 100% extension of the March decline and the 61.8.% retracement of the November advance. A break below opened up the objective 2020 yearly open and 2018 high at 75.35-76.87 which gave away and has held on to attempts to get above. This is an area of interest for downside exhaustion and price inflection potentially.


Crude Oil Futures Commitment of Traders

Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data:

CTFC and ICE open interest:

Money managers reduced their net-length in Brent crude oil futures and options by 12,964 contracts to 217,771 in the week ending August 22 via ICE

  • Long-only positions fell by 11,141
  • Short-only positions rose by 1,823
  • other reportables net-length fell by 18,181 ICE

Money managers reduced their net-length in WTI crude oil futures and options by 16,944 contracts to 161,875 in the week ending August 22 via CFTC

  • Long-only positions fell by 4,155
  • Short-only positions rose by 12,789
  • other reportables net-length rose by 8,683
August 25, 2023

Aug 25 2023

Chart: Crude net-positioning of non-commercial accounts (=managed money and other reportables) in barrels and in US dollars (Brent and WTI futures and options combined) latest value is August 1, 2023

COT on Commodities

COT in Oil Complex week to June 20:  COT showed 19k lots of net crude oil buying led by Brent (16k). The comb. long at 297k lots was within the recent range, but during this time positions have increasingly been moved to Brent (+84k) at the expense of WTI (-53.4k). Gasoil buying lifted the net to a two-month high at 16k lots via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen

Money managers in commodities covering the week to June 20: COT on commodities showed leverage accounts focus their buying interest on grains, copper, crude oil, natgas and sugar  via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen

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via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen

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Understanding DCOT Reports

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports – COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:

1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables


Crude Oil Option Volatility Watch

The sharp move in WTI to $63 in May and then rebound came after ten-day volatility in oil rose the highest level since October as crude sank for a third week. It gives a good indicator of complacency and optionality out there in slow price ranges. API reported big product draws which is supportive for the cracks. The contango structure and inflation having cooled from its recent peak, but remaining stubbornly elevated adds a volatile dynamic around settlements. The US regional banking disaster filtered through to commodities such as oil, copper and natural gas.

Ten-day volatility in oil jumped to the highest level since October as crude sank for a third week.

via commodityvol.com

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NYMEX LO = Crude Oil Options First 3 Months (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO & ICE North Sea Brent BRN Crude Oil Options (Live Link)

NYMEX LO NYMEX OH NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

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Energy Earnings Highlights for Q2 2023

Major oil companies reported Q2 earnings:

Lower earnings have been across the big oil board. Exxon Mobil (XOM) Chevron Corp (CVX), Shell (SHEL) and TotalEnergies (TTEF) have reported profit falls of 56%, 48%, 56% and 49%, respectively.

The three major oil services companies all reported Q2 earnings:


Key EIA and CME Dates for WTI Crude Oil

Key EIA and CME Dates For WTI Crude Oil

From The TradersCommunity US Research Desk