Around The Barrel – Big Product Build as Demand Dropped in Gasoline 14%, in Distillate fell 24% on Holiday Preloads

WTI Oil prices continue near recent lows after large builds in crude and products, worries about a China lockdown, Europe’s economic demise and a soaring US dollar. After today’s soaring CPI and gas prices it was notable the gasoline build rate is far above the 5-year seasonal average as demand dropped 14%. Caution here though as this is a holiday preload the week before, and the following week drops. Refinery utilization in PADD3 (Gulf Coast) was 98.1%, highest since Dec18. EIA reported oil stocks fell -3.6 mil bbls factoring in a SPR crude draw of -5.8 mil bbls. Cushing stocks rose 316kKbbl. Gasoline stocks grew +5820Kbbl. Production fell 100kbpd to 12.0 mil b/d just off the highest since April 2020.

Cushing Storage Tanks
Cushing Storage Tanks

The crude oil market came under pressure again this week as uncertainty increased with risk assets as the threat of demand destruction with recession fears brought on by rising interest rates. In the past few weeks, the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, ECB, Swiss National Bank, Bank of Canada, RBNZ, RBA, South Korea, Brazil and Mexico Central Banks have all raised interest rates. Furthermore, Russia’s President Putin continues to threaten the world with rants over world energy and food supply as he continues his attack and bombardment of Ukraine. The headline risk around the EU phasing out Russian oil by year end overhangs.

Around The Barrel Contents

Click on the links below to navigate to the relevant section.

  1. DOE & API Petroleum Storage Forecast Matrix
  2. Crude Oil Quick Summary
  3. Weekly DoE US Petroleum Storage Report Breakdown
  4. API Crude Inventories
  5. Cushing Oil Stocks
  6. Crude Imports
  7. Crude Exports
  8. Gasoline
  9. Rig Watch
  10. Crude Oil Production
  11. Weather
  12. WTI Crude Oil Futures Technical Analysis
  13. DCOT Report
  14. Option Volatility and Gamma
  15. Key EIA and CME Dates

DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report Forecast

  • via
  • Report Date 7/6/21
  • Release Time: Wednesday, July 13, 2022, at 10:30 A.M. (ET)
  • Crude EIA +3254K Exp +1190k Prior +8235K API +4762k
  • Cushing EIA +316K Exp +416k Prior +69K API +298k
  • Gasoline EIA +5825K Exp +482k Prior -2497K API +2927k
  • Distillate EIA +2668K Exp +1657k Prior +2559K API +3.262k
  • Refinery Utilization +0.70% to 94.90% Exp +0.3%
  • Refinery utilization in PADD3 (Gulf Coast) 98.1%, highest since Dec18
  • Production -100kbbl to 12,000kbpd (13.10 ATH)

Note in bbls *exp = Reuters poll est  adjusted for API shift, except Cushing

Update: PADD 3 Refinery Utilization

US Crude Oil Quick Look

Oil prices continue to be subject to geopolitical bifurcation dynamics with sudden changes that accompanies the onset of chaos. The unexpected knock-ons continue with imperfect bifurcation with political influence and personal vagaries from world leaders such as Putin, Scholz and Biden in addition to routine crude dynamics.

East Coast diesel and heating oil inventories at fresh 32-year low (only data since 1990). The pricing hub of New York Harbor is virtually dry as oil prices continue to fluctuate with geopolitical elements and demand headwinds such as soaring interest rates, China’s COVID lockdowns, SPR releases consequences deepening all in the price matrix.

via Giovanni Staunovo? @staunovo


Rising crude oil AND rising refinery margins have pushed gasoline to a record high price and diesel near the late April record

via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen

Weekly DoE US Petroleum Storage Report Breakdown

Weekly Storage via DOE

with RonH Data ‏@Ronh and The Fundamental Angle ‏@BrynneKKelly

  Via RonH at Ron H Public Tableau Link

The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly


API Crude Oil Inventories

US petroleum (Crude, SPR, oil products) inventories in million barrels (EIA)

The US continues draining it’s SPR to its lowest level since January 1987. Over the last 2 weeks, the US gov has injected 13.7 million barrels from the SPR into the market. Commercial oil stockpiles still fell 3 million barrels over that period.

If Washington sticks to its current pace, the reserve will shrink to a 40-year low of 358 million barrels by the end of October, when the releases are due to stop Bloomberg reported.

Cushing Oil Stocks

Cushing, OK is the hub for the most heavily traded US oil Futures contract – West Intermediate Crude – WTI so for that reason we pay special attention to the storage there.

API Cushing Stocks

API Cushing

Weekly Update via RonH Data ‏@Ronh999

Cushing OK Crude Oil Storage Stocks

Closer Look at Cushing with DigStic Data @DigStic

US Oil Import Export



US crude imports by origin in kbpd (incl w/w change)

  • Canada +24 to 3827
  • México -92 to 610
  • Saudi Arabia +236 to 634
  • Colombia unchanged at 213
  • Iraq -60 to 302
  • Ecuador +7 to 149
  • Brazil +35 to 143
  • Nigeria -92 to 79
  • Trinidad and Tobago -3 to 0
At 1.782 mb/d (+355 kb/d m/m), Russian crude cargoes are increasingly heading to Asia, with loadings for India assessed at 633 kb/d (+310 kb/d) and direct exports to China at 812 kb/d (+129 kb/d) so far in April


“Oil exports from the US Gulf Coast are set to hit an all-time high of 3.3 million barrels per day Q2 2022, as refining capacity outages limit operators’ ability to meet demand and the US government’s SPR release boosts supply,” says @RystadEnergy

US crude and oil product exports (down by 722kbpd w/w to 8.851mbpd)
Previous Week US exports of refined petroleum products surged last week to an all-time high of 6.96 million barrels per day, per @EIAgov @JavierBlas

US Gasoline Consumers

Input to Refineries


US consumers bought +338.6 million gallons of #gasoline per day last week. That is -51.3 mil YoY


US consumers spent $1,573.2 million dollars per day for #gasoline last week. That is $+351.6 mil YoY


US avg retail price for gasoline was $4.646 last week. That is +1.513 YoY.


US East coast diesel inventories 32 Year Lows

New York harbor, we have a problem: US East coast diesel inventories are now at the lowest **absolute** level in at least 32 years (not just seasonal), per EIA data released. The Eastern seaboard is running on diesel fumes via. Javier Blas@JavierBlas

Rig Watch

Baker Hughes Weekly North American Rigs Report

  • US Baker Hughes Rig Count 15-Jul: 756 (prev 752)
  • – Rotary Gas Rigs: 153 (prev 153)
  • – Rotary Oil Rigs: 599 (est 599; prev 597)

For the month, the oil rig count rose for a record 21 months in a row, while the gas rig count was up for a ninth month in a row, the most since May 2017.

US Oil Rigs w/w changes by key shale basins

  • Permian -1 to 348
  • Eagle Ford unchanged at 60
  • Williston unchanged at 37
  • Cana Woodford unchanged at 27
  • DJ Niobrara unchanged at 16
US oil rigs and frac spread (Baker Hughes/Primary Vision)
via @staunovo

Canada Rigs

  • Canada averaged 95 active drilling rigs this week according to data from the Canadian Association of Energy Contractors. Of those rigs, 39% are drilling for natural gas, 49% are drilling for oil, 2% for other (helium, hydrogen, geothermal, or potash), and 10% are moving.
  • Drilling activity by province is 78% in Alberta, 9% in Saskatchewan, 7% in BC, and 6% elsewhere. Precision Drilling holds the majority of the Canadian market share with 34%, Ensign Drilling with 24%, Savanna Drilling with 12%, and Akita Drilling with 6% via Camtrader

US oil rigs and frac spread (Baker Hughes/Primary Vision)

Permian Basin Rigs

International oil rigs ex North America

International oil rigs ex North America down 4 m/m to 644 in April (Baker Hughes)

  • Abud Dhabi +5
  • Norway, Argentina +3
  • Egypt, Algeria, Brazil -3
  • Libya -8

US Oil Production

US crude production changed benchmark May 11, 2022: Domestic crude oil production estimate incorporates a re-benchmarking that affected estimated volumes by less than 50,000 barrels per day, which is about 0.1% of this week’s estimated production total. via EIA

US Oil Field Production -100 kbpd to 12.00 mbpd (New Benchmark adj)


Weather Watch

Gulf of Mexico

WTI Crude Oil Futures Technical Analysis

via KnovaWave @KnovaWave

US Crude Oil (WTI)


Another big week for oil, after hitting our initial 8/8 target retest completing either a iii of (5) or (v) of 5 as marked. From there we saw a grinding ABC or 1 of 3 higher and MM recalculation higher to almost +2/8 and 161.8% Fib retest. We are in a completive mode with this impulse, it’s a question of degree on the topside, use the Murrey math 240/60 grid.

On the way up potent WTI price action indicative of 3rd wave energy highlighted by spits of the Tenkan to new highs. Recall prior to this move the completion in 5 waves (iii or i) saw heavy selling with eventual confluence kiss of death with 50dma at the top of the cloud. From there down in 3 waves, completing a C or IV? Support wasn’t found until 0-8. From there we have accelerated higher through the cloud twist. Support Kijun and Tenkan. Closed above 50dma with grid above

The key is crowd behavior to help tell the story which in energy is often around geopolitics. A great example of why we watch ABC corrections and from here we get the energy from the break being balanced. This move that was powered by 50 dma Tenkan spit of a spit – hence the fractal energies reverberations. Support is previous lows, Murrey Math levels and Fib cluster. Support is the 50dma, kijun, tenkan and prev high confluence.

Weekly: WTI crude Oil futures continued higher after corrected the sell off to the Kijun. That was after it’s measured move reversed from 7-year highs and regained them right to the top of the weekly channel with the downside open. Risk support is the grid. Long term 61.8% target fueled the spit of a spit by ABC bull flag after rebalanced Chikou sated the 5 waves. Support previous high and Weekly Tenkan & Kijun which closed turning up under the 100% to give next impulse clue after holding above 50wma after regaining energy above Tenkan and Kijun. Resistance the Murrey Math levels and previous breaks (off monthly)

These are special times, recall “After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all-time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications.” Above we have Murrey Math time and price

What we broke…….

Crude Oil Futures Commitment of Traders

Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data:

CTFC and ICE open interest:

Money managers reduced their net-length in Brent crude oil futures and options by 54,197 contracts to 143,002 in the week ending July 5

  • Long-only positions fell by 39,746
  • Short-only positions rose by 14,451
  • other reportables net-length rose by 843


Money managers reduced their net-length in WTI crude oil futures and options by 42,354 contracts to 200,957 in the week ending July 5

  • Long-only positions fell by 21,710
  • Short-only positions rose by 20,644
  • other reportables net-length rose by 22,557



Chart: Crude net-positioning of non-commercial accounts (=managed money and other reportables) in barrels and in US dollars (Brent and WTI futures and options combined) latest value is May 31


via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen


Understanding DCOT Reports

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports – COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:

1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables

Crude Oil Option Volatility Watch



NYMEX LO = Crude Oil Options First 3 Months (Live Link)


NYMEX LO & ICE North Sea Brent BRN Crude Oil Options (Live Link)



NYMEX LO NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)


Among the most traded option strikes in this week in WTI and Brent we find an increased demand for > $100 strikes via @Ole_S_Hansen

Key EIA and CME Dates for WTI Crude Oil

Key EIA and CME Dates For WTI Crude Oil

From The TradersCommunity US Research Desk