WTI Oil futures have rallied back from the recent dump. EIA reporting a crude draw -241Kbbl (incl +2373kbbl build at Cushing). Gasoline stocks grew +3882kbbl, Utilization rose +1.0% to 89.6%. Production rose +100k to 11,700 kbpd.
DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- via TradersCommunity.com
- Report Date 12/1/21
- Release Time: Wednesday, December 8, 2021 at 10:30 A.M. (ET)
Note in bbls *exp = Reuters poll est adjusted for API shift, except Cushing
| EIA | Exp | Prior | API | |
| Crude | -241k | -1677k | -909k | -3089k |
| Cushing | +2373k | +2287k | +1159k | +2395k |
| Gasoline | +3882k | +1803k | +4029k | +3705k |
| Distillate | +2733k | -1968k | +2160k | +1228k |
- Refinery Utilization +1.0% to 89.6% Exp +.5%
- Production +100k to 11,700 kbpd (13.10 ATH)
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week (Live Link)
Rig Watch:
- Total 556 (est 556; prev 550)
- Rotary Oil Rigs: flat at 467 vs 246 year ago
- Rotary Gas Rigs: flat at 102 vs 75 year ago
US Oil Rigs w/w changes by key shale basins
- Permian +3 to 283
- Eagle Ford unchanged at 37
- Williston unchanged at 27
- Cana Woodford -1 to 23
- DJ Niobrara unchanged at 11
Horizontal oil rigs in the Permian +1 to 268
International oil rigs ex North America
+12 m/m to 599 in September
- Saudi Arabia +4
- Turkey, Brazil +3
- Iraq, Algeria +2
- Kuwait, Indonesia -2
Baker Hughes
US Crude Oil Quick Look
via Giovanni Staunovo? @staunovo
Weekly DOE Petroleum Report in Charts
via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen
Weather Watch
Gulf of Mexico
API Crude Inventories
WTI Crude Oil Futures Technical Analysis via KnovaWave
US Crude Oil (WTI)
The backwardation structure of all crude prices steepened in October and the calendar spread between the nearest futures contracts moved into deeper backwardation. This reflected the market perception of stronger market fundamentals in the near-term and lower global crude oil inventory levels. The prospect of higher oil demand during the winter season due to gas to oil switching, amid soaring gas prices in the main trading hubs, and the forecast of slower non-OPEC oil supply growth, have pushed the near-month contract spreads higher compared to later month contracts.
4 Hour:: WTI oil stayed below the 240 cloud after testing the 50 ma (green). This is a market that is reflective of fear and greed, note the reaction when Kijun and Tenkan cross or touch and Murrey Math confluence. Sell off capitulated to -4/8
Daily: On the way up potent WTI price action indicative of 3rd wave energy highlighted by spits of the Tenkan to new highs. The completion in 5 waves saw heavy selling with eventual confluence kiss of death with 50dma at the top of the cloud. From there down in 3 waves, completing a C or iii? Support wasn’t found until 0-8. Resistance the Tenkan
The key is crowd behavior to help tell the story which in energy is often around geopolitics. A great example of why we watch ABC corrections and from here we get the energy from the break being balanced. This move that was powered by 50 dma Tenkan spit of a spit – hence the fractal energies reverberations. Support is previous lows, Murrey Math levels and Fib cluster. Support is the 50dma, kijun, tenkan and prev high confluence.
Weekly: WTI crude Oil futures continued with it’s measured move then reversed from 7-year highs. Long term 61.8% target fueled by ABC bull flag after rebalanced Chikou sated the 5 waves. Weekly Tenkan & Kijun closed touching to give next impulse clue after closing at 50wma. It must regain energy to complete correction
These are special times, recall “After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications.” Support is previous channels, Tenkan and Kijun. Above we have Murrey Math time and price
Crude Oil Futures Commitment of Traders
Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data:
CTFC and ICE open interest:
Money managers reduced their net-length in Brent crude oil futures and options by 44,654 contracts to 167,166 in the week ending November 30 Long-only positions fell by 49,454 Short-only positions fell by 4,800 other reportables net-length rose by 8,398 – ICE
Money managers reduced their net-length in WTI crude oil futures and options by 45,171 contracts to 257,631 in the week ending November 30 Long-only positions fell by 25,905 Short-only positions rose by 19,266 other reportables net-length rose by 20,190 – CFTC
Chart: Crude net-positioning of non-commercial accounts (=managed money and other reportables) in barrels and in US dollars (Brent and WTI futures and options combined)latest value is November 30
COT on energy saw selling of #WTI and #Brent extend to to a 4th week. The comb length dropped by 27k lots to 573k, a two month low. With length in all fuel products also reduced, the total 50k lots reduction 819k was the biggest to hit the sector since August.
via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen
Understanding DCOT Reports
Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports – COT, TFF and DCOT to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications: 1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables
Crude Oil Option Volatility Watch via commodityvol.com
NYMEX LO = Crude Oil Options First 3 Months (Live Link)
NYMEX LO & ICE North Sea Brent BRN Crude Oil Options (Live Link)
NYMEX LO NYMEX OH NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)
NYMEX LO NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)
The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly
Cushing Oil Stocks
Cushing, OK is the hub for the most heavily traded US oil Futures contract – West Intermediate Crude – WTI so for that reason we pay special attention to the storage there.
Weekly Update via RonH Data @Ronh999
Closer Look at Cushing with DigStic Data @DigStic
Weekly DoE US Petroleum Storage Report Breakdown
Weekly Storage via DOE with RonH Data @Ronh999
NB: Check out Ron’s great work at Ron H Public Tableau Link
US Oil Import Export
Imports
US crude imports by origin in kbpd (incl w/w change)
- Canada +201 to 3773
- Mexico +120 to 657
- Saudi Arabia +51 to 475
- Colombia +143 to 214
- Iraq -24 to 221
- Ecuador -172 to 112
- Brazil -102 to 142
- Russia +152 to 189
- Nigeria -137 to 4
- Trinidad and Tobago +72 to 72
Exports
US Gasoline Consumers
Input to Refineries
US consumers bought 369.4 million gallons of gasoline per day last week. That is +28.0 mil YoY
US consumers spent $1,248.7 million dollars per day for gasoline last week. That is +$531.0 mil YoY.
US avg retail price for gasoline was $3.380 last week. That is +$1.260 YoY.
US Crude Oil Production
US Oil Field Production +100k to 11.500 mbpd Off ATH 13.10mpd
Key EIA and CME Dates For WTI Crude Oil
From The TradersCommunity US Research Desk