Around The Barrel – US Crude Oil Continues to Draw as WTI Trades To $112Bbl 

Oil prices soared over $112 ahead of OPEC and EIA as the Russian situation deepened with added uncertainty with the Iran Nuclear Deal and supply and demand functionality all in the price matrix. Cushing oil inventory at the lowest since 2018. Distillates stocks at 3yr low as demand for jet fuel and diesel taking off. SPR lowest in 20 years. EIA reported US Crude last week crude fell -2597bbl (incl -972kbbl draw at Cushing). Gasoline stocks drew -468kbbl. Utilization rose .30% to 87.7%. Production UNCH at 11,600 kbpd.

Cushing Storage Tanks
Cushing Storage Tanks

Around The Barrel Contents

Click on the links below to navigate to the relevant section.

  1. DOE & API Petroleum Storage Forecast Matrix
  2. Crude Oil Quick Summary
  3. Weekly DoE US Petroleum Storage Report Breakdown
  4. API Crude Inventories
  5. Cushing Oil Stocks
  6. Crude Imports
  7. Crude Exports
  8. Gasoline
  9. Rig Watch
  10. Crude Oil Production
  11. Weather
  12. WTI Crude Oil Futures Technical Analysis
  13. DCOT Report
  14. Option Volatility and Gamma
  15. Key EIA and CME Dates

DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report Forecast

  • via TradersCommunity.com
  • Report Date 2/124/21
  • Release Time: Wednesday, March 2, 2022, at 9:30 A.M. (ET)

Note in bbls *exp = Reuters poll est  adjusted for API shift, except Cushing

 EIAExpPrior API
Crude-2597k-3058k+4514k-6058k
Cushing-972k-1164k-2019k-1018k
Gasoline-468k-803k-582k-2460k
Distillate-574k+168k-584k+392k
Weekly US Crude Oil Storage Report
  • Refinery Utilization +0.3% to 87.70% Exp +0.3%
  • Production  UNCH to 11,600kbpd (13.10 ATH)

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week (Live Link)


Iran Nuclear Talks Update

The United States two week’s ago said they are waiving sanctions on Iran’s civil nuclear program in a desperate attempt for the Biden administration to secure a return to the 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran. The State Department notified Congress of the waiver Friday. The change in policy would allow other countries to cooperate on certain nonproliferation activities necessary to return to the international nuclear agreement.

“This is not a signal that we are about to reach an understanding on a mutual return to full implementation” of the JCPOA, the Obama-era Iran nuclear agreement, a State Department official told NBC News.

Nuclear talks between world powers are entering their final stretch, with negotiators in Vienna hoping to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA. Iran is said to be just weeks away from being able to produce enough weapons grade material for a nuclear bomb.

Iran’s foreign minister quickly rebuked the move. “The lifting of some sanctions can in itself translate into good faith,” Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said, according to Iranian state media. “But it’s not enough.”

“Iran’s legal right to continue research and development and maintain its peaceful nuclear capabilities and achievements, side by side with its security … cannot be curbed by any agreement,” Ali Shamkhani, Iran’s top security official, tweeted.


US Crude Oil Quick Look

On a 4-week avg basis, @EIAgov continues to peg US oil demand at a record high for this time of the year. The latest data puts demand at 21.64m b/d, highest ever for late January, and the highest in absolute terms since Aug 2019 (Chart is 20 years of seasonal data) via @JavierBlas Bloomberg

Image
US oil rigs and frac spread (Baker Hughes/Primary Vision)

via Giovanni Staunovo? @staunovo

Image

via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen

Weekly DoE US Petroleum Storage Report Breakdown

Weekly Storage via DOE

with RonH Data ‏@Ronh and The Fundamental Angle ‏@BrynneKKelly

  Via RonH at Ron H Public Tableau Link

The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

Image
Image

API Crude Oil Inventories

API Crude Inventories

US petroleum (Crude, SPR, oil products) inventories in million barrels (EIA)

Cushing Oil Stocks

Cushing, OK is the hub for the most heavily traded US oil Futures contract – West Intermediate Crude – WTI so for that reason we pay special attention to the storage there.

API Cushing Stocks

API Cushing

Weekly Update via RonH Data ‏@Ronh999

Image
Cushing OK Crude Oil Storage Stocks

Closer Look at Cushing with DigStic Data @DigStic

US Oil Import Export

Imports

Image

US crude imports by origin in kbpd (incl w/w change)

  • Canada +527 to 3869
  • Mexico +258 to 768
  • Saudi Arabia +108 to 358
  • Colombia +8 to 332
  • Iraq +60 to 285
  • Ecuador unchanged at 98 Brazil +68 to 273
  • Russia +13 to 106
  • Nigeria -157 to 25
  • Trinidad and Tobago -71 to 0

Exports

Image

US Gasoline Consumers

Input to Refineries

Image

US consumers bought +367.20 million gallons of gasoline per day last week. That is +25.0 mil YoY.

Image

US consumers spent $1324.9 million dollars per day for gasoline last week. That is +$397.1 mil YoY

Image

US avg retail price for gasoline was $3.608 last week. That is +0897 YoY.

Image

Rig Watch

Baker Hughes Weekly North American Rigs Report

  • US Baker Hughes Rig Count 04-Mar: 650 (est 656; prev 650)
  • Rotary Gas Rigs: 130 (est 128; prev 127)
  • Rotary Oil Rigs: 519 (est 527; prev 522)

US Oil Rigs w/w changes by key shale basins

  • Permian +1 to 310
  • Eagle Ford unchanged at 45
  • Williston unchanged at 33
  • Cana Woodford unchanged at 28
  • DJ Niobrara unchanged at 14
US oil rigs and frac spread (Baker Hughes/Primary Vision)
via @staunovo

Canada Rigs

  • Canada averaged 223 active drilling rigs this week according to data from the Canadian Association of Energy Contractors. Of those rigs, 25% are drilling for natural gas, 60% are drilling for oil, 4% for other (helium, hydrogen, geothermal, or potash), and 11% are moving.
  • Drilling activity by province is 77% in Alberta, 14% in Saskatchewan, 3% in BC, and 6% elsewhere. Precision Drilling holds the majority of the Canadian market share with 31%, Ensign Drilling with 23%, Savanna Drilling with 10%, and Horizon Drilling with 7%. View a full breakdown of Western Canada’s rig activity. via Camtrader

US oil rigs and frac spread (Baker Hughes/Primary Vision)

Image
Permian Basin Rigs

International oil rigs ex North America

International oil rigs ex North America remained unchanged at 642 in January

  • Colombia +4
  • Qatar +3
  • Iraq, Brazil, Indonesia +2
  • Turkey, Mexico-2
  • Oman, Argentina -3 Abu Dhabi -4
Image

US Oil Production

US Oil Field Production UNCH 11.600mbpd Off ATH 13.10mpd

Image

Weather Watch

Gulf of Mexico


WTI Crude Oil Futures Technical Analysis

via KnovaWave @KnovaWave

US Crude Oil (WTI)

The backwardation structure of all crude prices steepened in October and the calendar spread between the nearest futures contracts moved into deeper backwardation. This reflected the market perception of stronger market fundamentals in the near-term and lower global crude oil inventory levels. The prospect of higher oil demand during the winter season due to gas to oil switching, amid soaring gas prices in the main trading hubs, and the forecast of slower non-OPEC oil supply growth, have pushed the near-month contract spreads higher compared to later month contracts.

Daily:

Another big week for oil, after hitting our initial 8/8 target completing either a iii of (5) or (v) of 5 as marked. From there we saw a sharp ABC higher and MM recalculation higher to almost +3/8. We are in a completive mode with this impulse, it’s a question of degree on the topside, use the Murrey math 240/60 grid. On the way up potent WTI price action indicative of 3rd wave energy highlighted by spits of the Tenkan to new highs. Recall prior to this move the completion in 5 waves (iii or i) saw heavy selling with eventual confluence kiss of death with 50dma at the top of the cloud. From there down in 3 waves, completing a C or IV? Support wasn’t found until 0-8. From there we have accelerated higher through the cloud twist. Support Kijun and Tenkan. Closed above 50dma with grid above

The key is crowd behavior to help tell the story which in energy is often around geopolitics. A great example of why we watch ABC corrections and from here we get the energy from the break being balanced. This move that was powered by 50 dma Tenkan spit of a spit – hence the fractal energies reverberations. Support is previous lows, Murrey Math levels and Fib cluster. Support is the 50dma, kijun, tenkan and prev high confluence.

Weekly: WTI crude Oil futures continued higher after corrected the sell off after it’s measured move reversed from 7-year highs and regained them right to the top of the weekly channel with the downside open. Support is the median and Tenkan/Kijun. Long term 61.8% target fueled the spit of a spit by ABC bull flag after rebalanced Chikou sated the 5 waves. Support previous high and Weekly Tenkan & Kijun which closed turning up under the 61.8% to give next impulse clue after holding above 50wma after regaining energy above Tenkan and Kijun. Resistance the Murrey Math levels and previous breaks (off monthly)

These are special times, recall “After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all-time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications.” Above we have Murrey Math time and price

What we broke…….

WTI W 11 5 2021 Fibs


Crude Oil Futures Commitment of Traders

Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data:

CTFC and ICE open interest:

Money managers increased their net-length in Brent crude oil futures and options by 13,394 contracts to 236,747 in the week ending February 22 Long-only positions rose by 10,241 Short-only positions fell by 3,153 other reportables net-length rose by 5,098 – ICE

Money managers reduced their net-length in WTI crude oil futures and options by 19,021 contracts to 272,360 in the week ending February 24 Long-only positions fell by 7,671 Short-only positions rose by 11,350 other reportables net-length fell by 1,168 – CFTC

Image

Chart: Crude net-positioning of non-commercial accounts (=managed money and other reportables) in barrels and in US dollars (Brent and WTI futures and options combined) latest value is February 18

COT on energy in wk to Jan 25: Specs cut length in the WTI and Brent crudeoil contracts for the first time in six weeks ahead of $90/b Brent resistance and the FOMC meeting. Overall, the combined net long was cut by 19.5k lots to 540k lots

via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen

Image

Image
Image

Understanding DCOT Reports

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports – COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:

1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables


Crude Oil Option Volatility Watch

via commodityvol.com

Image

NYMEX LO = Crude Oil Options First 3 Months (Live Link)

Image

NYMEX LO & ICE North Sea Brent BRN Crude Oil Options (Live Link)

NYMEX LO NYMEX OH NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

Image

NYMEX LO NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

Image

Among the most traded option strikes in this week in WTI and Brent we find an increased demand for > $100 strikes via @Ole_S_Hansen

Key EIA and CME Dates for WTI Crude Oil

Key EIA and CME Dates For WTI Crude Oil

From The TradersCommunity US Research Desk