Oil continues to bustle on geopolitics, the latest the Russian oil cap proposal. Meanwhile in the US SPR sales continues. US crude stocks In SPR fell to lowest since July 1985. Is the Biden administration plan to have the Fed raising rates facilitate demand destruction? What happens if supply doesn’t overwhelm demand? Meanwhile this week the EIA reported US crude exports hit a new record high of 4.548mbpd last week as oil stocks fell -4523kbbls factoring in a SPR crude draw of -5.8 mil bbls. Cushing stocks rose 751Kbbl. Gasoline stocks fell -3304Kbbl. Production rose 200kbpd to 12.2 mil b/d just off the highest since April 2020.
With energy and inflation crisis impacting economies globally demand destruction overhangs the crude oil complex. Eyes will be on whether demand destruction is sustained or temporary.
The crude oil market overhead pressure com3es with the threat of demand destruction with recession fears brought on by rising interest rates. In the past month, the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, ECB, Swiss National Bank, Bank of Canada, RBNZ, RBA, South Korea, Brazil and Mexico Central Banks have all raised interest rates. Furthermore, Russia’s President Putin continues to threaten the world with rants over world energy and food supply as he continues his attack and bombardment of Ukraine. The headline risk around the EU phasing out Russian oil by year end overhangs.
Around The Barrel Contents
Click on the links below to navigate to the relevant section.
- DOE & API Petroleum Storage Forecast Matrix
- Crude Oil Quick Summary
- Weekly DoE US Petroleum Storage Report Breakdown
- API Crude Inventories
- Cushing Oil Stocks
- Crude Imports
- Crude Exports
- Gasoline
- Rig Watch
- Crude Oil Production
- Weather
- WTI Crude Oil Futures Technical Analysis
- DCOT Report
- Option Volatility and Gamma
- Key EIA and CME Dates
DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report Forecast
- via TradersCommunity.com
- Report Date 7/20/21
- Release Time: Wednesday, July 27, 2022, at 10:30 A.M. (ET)
- Crude EIA -4523K Exp +1190k Prior -445K API -4037k
- Cushing EIA +751K Exp +916k Prior +1.143K API +1090k
- Gasoline EIA -3.304K Exp +482k Prior +3.498K API -1060k
- Distillate EIA -784K Exp +1657k Prior -1295K API -550k
- Refinery Utilization -1.50% to 92.20% Exp -1.3%
- Refinery utilization in PADD3 (Gulf Coast) 98.1%, highest since Dec18
- Production +200kbbl to 12,200kbpd (13.10 ATH)
Note in bbls *exp = Reuters poll est adjusted for API shift, except Cushing
Update: PADD 3 Refinery Utilization
US Crude Oil Quick Look
Oil prices continue to be subject to geopolitical bifurcation dynamics with sudden changes that accompanies the onset of chaos. The unexpected knock-ons continue with imperfect bifurcation with political influence and personal vagaries from world leaders such as Putin, Scholz and Biden in addition to routine crude dynamics.
East Coast diesel and heating oil inventories at fresh 32-year low (only data since 1990). The pricing hub of New York Harbor is virtually dry as oil prices continue to fluctuate with geopolitical elements and demand headwinds such as soaring interest rates, China’s COVID lockdowns, SPR releases consequences deepening all in the price matrix.
via Giovanni Staunovo? @staunovo
Rising crude oil AND rising refinery margins pushed gasoline to a record high price and diesel near the late April record
via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen
Weekly DoE US Petroleum Storage Report Breakdown
Weekly Storage via DOE
with RonH Data @Ronh and The Fundamental Angle @BrynneKKelly
Via RonH at Ron H Public Tableau Link
The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly
API Crude Oil Inventories
US petroleum (Crude, SPR, oil products) inventories in million barrels (EIA)
The US continues draining it’s SPR to its lowest level since January 1987. Over the last 2 weeks, the US gov has injected 13.7 million barrels from the SPR into the market. Commercial oil stockpiles still fell 3 million barrels over that period.
If Washington sticks to its current pace, the reserve will shrink to a 40-year low of 358 million barrels by the end of October, when the releases are due to stop Bloomberg reported.
Cushing Oil Stocks
Cushing, OK is the hub for the most heavily traded US oil Futures contract – West Intermediate Crude – WTI so for that reason we pay special attention to the storage there.
API Cushing Stocks
Weekly Update via RonH Data @Ronh999
Closer Look at Cushing with DigStic Data @DigStic
US Oil Import Export
Imports
US crude imports by origin in kbpd (incl w/w change)
- Canada -173 to 3308
- Mexico -238 to 639
- Saudi Arabia +274 to 516
- Colombia -255 to 150
- Iraq -289 to 165
- Ecuador +93 to 150
- Brazil +208 to 278
- Nigeria +7 to 143
Exports
“Oil exports from the US Gulf Coast are set to hit an all-time high of 3.3 million barrels per day Q2 2022, as refining capacity outages limit operators’ ability to meet demand and the US government’s SPR release boosts supply,” says @RystadEnergy
US Gasoline Consumers
Input to Refineries
US consumers bought +388.3 million gallons of gasoline per day last week. That is -3.4 mil YoY.
US consumers spent $1,681.3 million dollars per day for gasoline last week. That is $+453.1 mil YoY.
US avg retail price for gasoline was $4.330 last week. That is +1.194 YoY.
US East coast diesel inventories 32 Year Lows
New York harbor, we have a problem: US East coast diesel inventories are now at the lowest **absolute** level in at least 32 years (not just seasonal), per EIA data released. The Eastern seaboard is running on diesel fumes via. Javier Blas@JavierBlas
Rig Watch
Baker Hughes Weekly North American Rigs Report
- US Baker Hughes Rig Count Jul-29: 767 (prev 758)
- Rotary Gas Rigs Jul-29: 157 (prev 155)
- Rotary Oil Rigs Jul-29: 605 (exp 603; prev 599)
For the month, the oil rig count rose for a record 21 months in a row, while the gas rig count was up for a ninth month in a row, the most since May 2017.
US Oil Rigs w/w changes by key shale basins
- Permian +2 to 348
- Eagle Ford +2 to 63
- Williston unchanged at 37
- Cana Woodford -5 to 24
- DJ Niobrara unchanged at 16
Canada Rigs
- Canada averaged 205 active drilling rigs this week according to data from the Canadian Association of Energy Contractors. Of those rigs, 28% are drilling for natural gas, 57% are drilling for oil, 4% for other (helium, hydrogen, geothermal, or potash), and 11% are moving.
- Drilling activity by province is 70% in Alberta, 20% in Saskatchewan, 3% in BC, and 7% elsewhere. Precision Drilling holds the majority of the Canadian market share with 27%, Ensign Drilling with 22%, Savanna Drilling with 12%, Horizon with 6%, and Stampede Drilling with 6%. via Camtrader
US oil rigs and frac spread (Baker Hughes/Primary Vision)
International oil rigs ex North America
International oil rigs ex North America +6 m/m to 645 in June (Baker Hughes)
- Abu Dhabi -2
- Kuwait, India -4
- Saudi Arabia -6
- Oman, Peru, Malaysia +2
- Colombia, Mexico +3
- Iraq +6
US Oil Production
US crude production changed benchmark May 11, 2022: Domestic crude oil production estimate incorporates a re-benchmarking that affected estimated volumes by less than 50,000 barrels per day, which is about 0.1% of this week’s estimated production total. via EIA
US Oil Field Production +200 kbpd to 12.10 mbpd (New Benchmark adj)
Weather Watch
Gulf of Mexico
WTI Crude Oil Futures Technical Analysis
via KnovaWave @KnovaWave
US Crude Oil (WTI)
Daily:
Another big week for oil, after hitting our initial 8/8 target retest completing either a iii of (5) or (v) of 5 as marked. From there we saw a grinding ABC or 1 of 3 higher and MM recalculation higher to almost +2/8 and 161.8% Fib retest. We are in a completive mode with this impulse, it’s a question of degree on the topside, use the Murrey math 240/60 grid.
On the way up potent WTI price action indicative of 3rd wave energy highlighted by spits of the Tenkan to new highs. Recall prior to this move the completion in 5 waves (iii or i) saw heavy selling with eventual confluence kiss of death with 50dma at the top of the cloud. From there down in 3 waves, completing a C or IV? Support wasn’t found until 0-8. From there we have accelerated higher through the cloud twist. Support Kijun and Tenkan. Closed above 50dma with grid above
The key is crowd behavior to help tell the story which in energy is often around geopolitics. A great example of why we watch ABC corrections and from here we get the energy from the break being balanced. This move that was powered by 50 dma Tenkan spit of a spit – hence the fractal energies reverberations. Support is previous lows, Murrey Math levels and Fib cluster. Support is the 50dma, kijun, tenkan and prev high confluence.
Weekly: WTI crude Oil futures continued higher after corrected the sell off to the Kijun. That was after it’s measured move reversed from 7-year highs and regained them right to the top of the weekly channel with the downside open. Risk support is the grid. Long term 61.8% target fueled the spit of a spit by ABC bull flag after rebalanced Chikou sated the 5 waves. Support previous high and Weekly Tenkan & Kijun which closed turning up under the 100% to give next impulse clue after holding above 50wma after regaining energy above Tenkan and Kijun. Resistance the Murrey Math levels and previous breaks (off monthly)
These are special times, recall “After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all-time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications.” Above we have Murrey Math time and price
What we broke…….
Crude Oil Futures Commitment of Traders
Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data:
CTFC and ICE open interest:
Money managers reduced their net-length in Brent crude oil futures and options by 3,374 contracts to 138,628 in the week ending July 12
- Long-only positions fell by 11,002
- Short-only positions fell by 7,648
- other reportables net-length fell by 19,034
– ICE
Money managers increased their net-length in WTI crude oil futures and options by 14,322 contracts to 215,289 in the week ending July 12
- Long-only positions rose by 3,525
- Short-only positions fell by 10,807
- other reportables net-length fell by 25,942
– CFTC
Chart: Crude net-positioning of non-commercial accounts (=managed money and other reportables) in barrels and in US dollars (Brent and WTI futures and options combined) latest value is May 31
COT on Commodities
COT on commodities covering the week to July 12 saw selling pressure from hedge fund begin to ease. The net long dropped to 900k lots, lowest since June 2020 but the 52k reduction was well below the 190k average seen during the previous four weeks.
Specs turned net buyers of crudeoil, copper and sugar with selling seen in natgas gold soybeans corn wheat and coffee. The gross position (long & short) was cut by 177k reflecting a high degree of uncertainty and vacations lowering exposures
via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen
Understanding DCOT Reports
Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports – COT, TFF and DCOT to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:
1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables
Crude Oil Option Volatility Watch
via commodityvol.com
NYMEX LO = Crude Oil Options First 3 Months (Live Link)
NYMEX LO & ICE North Sea Brent BRN Crude Oil Options (Live Link)
NYMEX LO NYMEX OH NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)
NYMEX LO NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)
Key EIA and CME Dates for WTI Crude Oil
Key EIA and CME Dates For WTI Crude Oil
From The TradersCommunity US Research Desk