Around The Barrel – US Distillate Fuel Oil Stocks at 14yr Lows

The EIA reported distillates stocks are at 14yr low as demand for jet fuel and diesel take off. Padd 1 l diesel inventories at 25-year lows. Oil prices continue to fluctuate with geopolitical elements and demand headwinds such as soaring interest rates, China’s COVID lockdowns, SPR releases consequences deepening all in the price matrix. SPR lowest in 20 years. EIA reported US Crude last week drew -8020bbl (incl: +1298K Build at Cushing). Gasoline stocks drew -1573kbbl. Utilization fell -0.70% to 89.5%. Production UNCH at 11,900 kbpd.

Cushing Storage Tanks
Cushing Storage Tanks

Around The Barrel Contents

Click on the links below to navigate to the relevant section.

  1. DOE & API Petroleum Storage Forecast Matrix
  2. Crude Oil Quick Summary
  3. Weekly DoE US Petroleum Storage Report Breakdown
  4. API Crude Inventories
  5. Cushing Oil Stocks
  6. Crude Imports
  7. Crude Exports
  8. Gasoline
  9. Rig Watch
  10. Crude Oil Production
  11. Weather
  12. WTI Crude Oil Futures Technical Analysis
  13. DCOT Report
  14. Option Volatility and Gamma
  15. Key EIA and CME Dates

DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report Forecast

  • via
  • Report Date 4/20/21
  • Release Time: Wednesday, April 27, 2022, at 9:30 A.M. (ET)
  • Crude EIA +692K Exp +1600k Prior -8020K API +4.784k
  • Cushing EIA +1298K Exp -180k Prior -185K API +1143k
  • Gasoline EIA -1573K Exp -1615k Prior -761K API -3911k
  • Distillate EIA -1449K Exp -606k Prior -2664K API +431k
  • Refinery Utilization -0.70% to 89.50% Exp +0.3%
  • Production UNCH 11,900kbpd (13.10 ATH)

Note in bbls *exp = Reuters poll est  adjusted for API shift, except Cushing

Update: IEA Oil Reserve Release

US Crude Oil Quick Look

On a 4-week avg basis, @EIAgov continues to peg US oil demand at a record high for this time of the year. The latest data puts demand at 21.64m b/d, highest ever for late January, and the highest in absolute terms since Aug 2019 (Chart is 20 years of seasonal data) via @JavierBlas Bloomberg


via Giovanni Staunovo? @staunovo


via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen

Weekly DoE US Petroleum Storage Report Breakdown

Weekly Storage via DOE

with RonH Data ‏@Ronh and The Fundamental Angle ‏@BrynneKKelly

  Via RonH at Ron H Public Tableau Link

The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly


API Crude Oil Inventories

API Crude Inventories

US petroleum (Crude, SPR, oil products) inventories in million barrels (EIA)

Cushing Oil Stocks

Cushing, OK is the hub for the most heavily traded US oil Futures contract – West Intermediate Crude – WTI so for that reason we pay special attention to the storage there.

API Cushing Stocks

API Cushing

Weekly Update via RonH Data ‏@Ronh999

Cushing OK Crude Oil Storage Stocks

Closer Look at Cushing with DigStic Data @DigStic

US Oil Import Export



US crude imports by origin in kbpd (incl w/w change)

  • Canada +45 to 3510
  • Mexico -97 to 391
  • Saudi Arabia +183 to 438
  • Colombia +32 to 364
  • Iraq -24 to 242
  • Ecuador -103 to 108
  • Brazil +48 to 48
  • Russia unchanged at 0
  • Nigeria -191 to 0
  • Trinidad and Tobago -3 to 72
At 1.782 mb/d (+355 kb/d m/m), Russian crude cargoes are increasingly heading to Asia, with loadings for India assessed at 633 kb/d (+310 kb/d) and direct exports to China at 812 kb/d (+129 kb/d) so far in April



US Gasoline Consumers

Input to Refineries


US consumers bought +367.0 million gallons of gasoline per day last week. That is -5.8 mil YoY.


US consumers spent $1,507.4 million dollars per day for #gasoline last week. That is $+436.6 mil YoY.


US avg retail price for #gasoline was $4.107 last week. That is +1.235 YoY.


Rig Watch

Baker Hughes Weekly North American Rigs Report

  • US Baker Hughes Rig Count 29-Apr: 698 (prev 695)
  • – Rotary Gas Rigs: 144 (prev 144)
  • – Rotary Oil Rigs: 552 (est 552; prev 549)

US Oil Rigs w/w changes by key shale basins

  • Permian: +1 to 334
  • Eagle Ford +1 to 52
  • Williston +1 to 36
  • Cana Woodford -1 to 26
  • DJ Niobrara unchanged at 15
US oil rigs and frac spread (Baker Hughes/Primary Vision)
via @staunovo

Canada Rigs

  • Canada averaged 99 active drilling rigs this week according to data from the Canadian Association of Energy Contractors. Of those rigs, 41% are drilling for natural gas, 52% are drilling for oil, 1% for other (helium, hydrogen, geothermal, or potash), and 6% are moving.
  • Drilling activity by province is 86% in Alberta, 1% in Saskatchewan, 6% in BC, and 7% elsewhere.
  • Precision Drilling holds the majority of the Canadian market share with 33%, Ensign Drilling with 25%, Savanna Drilling with 11%, and Akita Drilling with 7%.  via Camtrader

US oil rigs and frac spread (Baker Hughes/Primary Vision)

Permian Basin Rigs

International oil rigs ex North America

International oil rigs ex North America +21 m/m to 648 in March (Baker Hughes)

  • Abu Dhabi +6
  • Colombia +4
  • Brazil +3
  • Turkey, Algeria, Libya, Nigeria, Indonesia +2
  • India, Malaysia -2

US Oil Production

US Oil Field Production UNCH 11.900mbpd Off ATH 13.10mpd


Weather Watch

Gulf of Mexico

WTI Crude Oil Futures Technical Analysis

via KnovaWave @KnovaWave

US Crude Oil (WTI)


Another big week for oil, after hitting our initial 8/8 target completing either a iii of (5) or (v) of 5 as marked. From there we saw a sharp ABC higher and MM recalculation higher to almost +3/8. We are in a completive mode with this impulse, it’s a question of degree on the topside, use the Murrey math 240/60 grid. On the way up potent WTI price action indicative of 3rd wave energy highlighted by spits of the Tenkan to new highs. Recall prior to this move the completion in 5 waves (iii or i) saw heavy selling with eventual confluence kiss of death with 50dma at the top of the cloud. From there down in 3 waves, completing a C or IV? Support wasn’t found until 0-8. From there we have accelerated higher through the cloud twist. Support Kijun and Tenkan. Closed above 50dma with grid above

The key is crowd behavior to help tell the story which in energy is often around geopolitics. A great example of why we watch ABC corrections and from here we get the energy from the break being balanced. This move that was powered by 50 dma Tenkan spit of a spit – hence the fractal energies reverberations. Support is previous lows, Murrey Math levels and Fib cluster. Support is the 50dma, kijun, tenkan and prev high confluence.

Weekly: WTI crude Oil futures continued higher after corrected the sell off after it’s measured move reversed from 7-year highs and regained them right to the top of the weekly channel with the downside open. Support is the median and Tenkan/Kijun. Long term 61.8% target fueled the spit of a spit by ABC bull flag after rebalanced Chikou sated the 5 waves. Support previous high and Weekly Tenkan & Kijun which closed turning up under the 61.8% to give next impulse clue after holding above 50wma after regaining energy above Tenkan and Kijun. Resistance the Murrey Math levels and previous breaks (off monthly)

These are special times, recall “After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all-time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications.” Above we have Murrey Math time and price

What we broke…….

WTI W 11 5 2021 Fibs

Crude Oil Futures Commitment of Traders

Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data:

CTFC and ICE open interest:

Money managers increased their net-length in Brent crude oil futures and options by 7,832 contracts to 160,437 in the week ending March 22 Long-only positions rose by 8,536 Short-only positions rose by 704 other reportables net-length rose by 10,569 – ICE

Money managers increased their net-length in WTI crude oil futures and options by 5,118 contracts to 263,857 in the week ending March 22 Long-only positions rose by 3,276 Short-only positions fell by 1,842 other reportables net-length fell by 1,151 – CFTC


Chart: Crude net-positioning of non-commercial accounts (=managed money and other reportables) in barrels and in US dollars (Brent and WTI futures and options combined) latest value is March 22

COT on energy in wk to Jan 25: Specs cut length in the WTI and Brent crudeoil contracts for the first time in six weeks ahead of $90/b Brent resistance and the FOMC meeting. Overall, the combined net long was cut by 19.5k lots to 540k lots

via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen



Understanding DCOT Reports

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports – COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:

1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables

Crude Oil Option Volatility Watch



NYMEX LO = Crude Oil Options First 3 Months (Live Link)


NYMEX LO & ICE North Sea Brent BRN Crude Oil Options (Live Link)



NYMEX LO NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)


Among the most traded option strikes in this week in WTI and Brent we find an increased demand for > $100 strikes via @Ole_S_Hansen

Key EIA and CME Dates for WTI Crude Oil

Key EIA and CME Dates For WTI Crude Oil

From The TradersCommunity US Research Desk