Around The Barrel – Gasoline and Distillate Builds for Year End Crude Tax Assessment

Welcome to 2022, WTI Oil futures have rallied after OPEC+ holds the status quo. We had Gasoline builds on expected year-end inventory release for tax assessment on December 31 on crude barrels. Last week EIA reported US Crude last Week crude drew -2144Kbbl (incl +2577kbbl build at Cushing). Gasoline stocks drew +10128kbbl. Utilization fell +.1% to 89.7%. Production +200k to 11,800 kbpd.

Cushing Storage Tanks
Cushing Storage Tanks

Around The Barrel Contents

Click on the links below to navigate to the relevant section.

  1. DOE & API Petroleum Storage Forecast Matrix
  2. Crude Oil Quick Summary
  3. Weekly DoE US Petroleum Storage Report Breakdown
  4. API Crude Inventories
  5. Cushing Oil Stocks
  6. Crude Imports
  7. Crude Exports
  8. Gasoline
  9. Rig Watch
  10. Crude Oil Production
  11. Weather
  12. WTI Crude Oil Futures Technical Analysis
  13. DCOT Report
  14. Option Volatility and Gamma
  15. Key EIA and CME Dates

DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report Forecast

  • via TradersCommunity.com
  • Report Date 12/31/21
  • Release Time: Wednesday, January 5, 2022, at 10:30 A.M. (ET)

Note in bbls *exp = Reuters poll est  adjusted for API shift, except Cushing

 EIAExpPrior API
Crude-2144k-3400k -3576k -6342k
Cushing+2577k+2367k+1055k +2268k
Gasoline+10128k+1803k-1458k+7061k
Distillate+4418k+1968k-1726k +4340k
Weekly US Crude Oil Storage Report
  • Refinery Utilization +012% to 89.70% Exp +.5%
  • Production  +200 to 11,800 kbpd (13.10 ATH)

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week (Live Link)

US Crude Oil Quick Look

via Giovanni Staunovo? @staunovo

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via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen

Weekly DoE US Petroleum Storage Report Breakdown

Weekly Storage via DOE

with RonH Data ‏@Ronh and The Fundamental Angle ‏@BrynneKKelly

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  Via RonH at Ron H Public Tableau Link

The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

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API Crude Oil Inventories

API Crude Inventories

Cushing Oil Stocks

Cushing, OK is the hub for the most heavily traded US oil Futures contract – West Intermediate Crude – WTI so for that reason we pay special attention to the storage there.

API Cushing

Weekly Update via RonH Data ‏@Ronh999

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Cushing OK Crude Oil Storage Stocks

Closer Look at Cushing with DigStic Data @DigStic

US Oil Import Export

Imports

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US crude imports by origin in kbpd (incl w/w change)

  • Canada -229 to 3803
  • Mexico -422 to 226
  • Saudi Arabia -191 to 418
  • Colombia -120 to 64
  • Iraq -42 to 226
  • Ecuador -213 to 95
  • Brazil +64 to 127
  • Russia +151 to 151
  • Nigeria -5 to 53
  • Trinidad and Tobago +79 to 79

Exports

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US Gasoline Consumers

Input to Refineries

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US consumers bought 343.20 million gallons of gasoline per day last week. +30.70 mil YoY.

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US consumers spent $1,126.1 million dollars per day for gasoline last week, +$423.3 mil YoY

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US avg retail price for gasoline was $3.281 last week. That is +$1.032 YoY.

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Rig Watch

Baker Hughes Weekly North American Rigs Report

  • US Baker Hughes Rig Count 07-Jan: 588 (est 589; prev 586)
  • Rotary Gas Rigs: 107 (est 107; prev 106)
  • Rotary Oil Rigs: 481 (est 484; prev 480)

US Oil Rigs  w/w changes by key shale basins

  • Permian -1 to 292
  • Eagle Ford unchanged at 38
  • Williston unchanged at 27
  • Cana Woodford -2 to 26
  • DJ Niobrara -1 to 12

US oil rigs and frac spread (Baker Hughes/Primary Vision)

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Permian Basin Rigs

International oil rigs ex North America

+12 m/m to 599 in September

  • Saudi Arabia +4
  • Turkey, Brazil +3
  • Iraq, Algeria +2
  • Kuwait, Indonesia -2
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US Oil Production

US Oil Field Production +200k to 11.800 mbpd Off ATH 13.10mpd

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Weather Watch

Gulf of Mexico


WTI Crude Oil Futures Technical Analysis

via KnovaWave @KnovaWave

US Crude Oil (WTI)

The backwardation structure of all crude prices steepened in October and the calendar spread between the nearest futures contracts moved into deeper backwardation. This reflected the market perception of stronger market fundamentals in the near-term and lower global crude oil inventory levels. The prospect of higher oil demand during the winter season due to gas to oil switching, amid soaring gas prices in the main trading hubs, and the forecast of slower non-OPEC oil supply growth, have pushed the near-month contract spreads higher compared to later month contracts.

Daily: On the way up potent WTI price action indicative of 3rd wave energy highlighted by spits of the Tenkan to new highs. The completion in 5 waves saw heavy selling with eventual confluence kiss of death with 50dma at the top of the cloud. From there down in 3 waves, completing a C or a? Support wasn’t found until 0-8. Support Kijun and Tenkan. Closed at 50dma with Cloud above

The key is crowd behavior to help tell the story which in energy is often around geopolitics. A great example of why we watch ABC corrections and from here we get the energy from the break being balanced. This move that was powered by 50 dma Tenkan spit of a spit – hence the fractal energies reverberations. Support is previous lows, Murrey Math levels and Fib cluster. Support is the 50dma, kijun, tenkan and prev high confluence.

Weekly: WTI crude Oil futures continues to correct the sell off after it’s measured move reversed from 7-year highs. Long term 61.8% target fueled by ABC bull flag after rebalanced Chikou sated the 5 waves. Weekly Tenkan & Kijun closed touching to give next impulse clue after closing above 50wma. It must regain energy to resume higher above Tenkan and Kijun.

These are special times, recall “After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all-time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications.” Support is previous channels, Tenkan and Kijun. Above we have Murrey Math time and price

WTI D 11 5 2021 Perspective

WTI W 11 5 2021 Fibs


Crude Oil Futures Commitment of Traders

Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data:

CTFC and ICE open interest:

Money managers increased their net-length in Brent crude oil futures and options by 361 contracts to 154,418 in the week ending December 14 Long-only positions rose by 1,294 Short-only positions rose by 933 other reportables net-length fell by 1,578 – ICE

Money managers reduced their net-length in WTI crude oil futures and options by 14,775 contracts to 245,289 in the week ending December 14 Long-only positions fell by 7,238 Short-only positions rose by 7,537 other reportables net-length fell by 524 – CFTC

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Chart: Crude net-positioning of non-commercial accounts (=managed money and other reportables) in barrels and in US dollars (Brent and WTI futures and options combined) latest value is December 14

COT on energy saw selling of #WTI and #Brent extend to to a 4th week. The comb length dropped by 27k lots to 573k, a two month low. With length in all fuel products also reduced, the total 50k lots reduction 819k was the biggest to hit the sector since August.

via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen

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Understanding DCOT Reports

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports – COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:

1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables


Crude Oil Option Volatility Watch

via commodityvol.com

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NYMEX LO = Crude Oil Options First 3 Months (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO & ICE North Sea Brent BRN Crude Oil Options (Live Link)

NYMEX LO NYMEX OH NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

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Key EIA and CME Dates for WTI Crude Oil

Key EIA and CME Dates For WTI Crude Oil

From The TradersCommunity US Research Desk