Around The Barrel – US Crude Oil Strategic Reserves Falls at Record Pace to Lowest Since May 2001

Oil prices have continued to chop over $100 WTI as the U.S. continues to drain it’s SPR which have not alleviated product shortages and the headline risk around the EU phasing out Russian oil by year end. East Coast diesel and heating oil inventories at fresh 32-year low (only data since 1990). The pricing hub of New York Harbor is virtually dry.

Oil prices continue to fluctuate with geopolitical elements and demand headwinds such as soaring interest rates, China’s COVID lockdowns, SPR releases consequences deepening all in the price matrix. SPR lowest in 20 years. EIA reported US Crude last week grew +8487kbbl (incl: -587K Draw at Cushing). Gasoline stocks drew -3607kbbl. Utilization fell -1.90% to 87.6%. Production UNCH at 11,900 kbpd.

Cushing Storage Tanks
Cushing Storage Tanks

Around The Barrel Contents

Click on the links below to navigate to the relevant section.

  1. DOE & API Petroleum Storage Forecast Matrix
  2. Crude Oil Quick Summary
  3. Weekly DoE US Petroleum Storage Report Breakdown
  4. API Crude Inventories
  5. Cushing Oil Stocks
  6. Crude Imports
  7. Crude Exports
  8. Gasoline
  9. Rig Watch
  10. Crude Oil Production
  11. Weather
  12. WTI Crude Oil Futures Technical Analysis
  13. DCOT Report
  14. Option Volatility and Gamma
  15. Key EIA and CME Dates

DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report Forecast

  • via TradersCommunity.com
  • Report Date 5/5/21
  • Release Time: Wednesday, May 11, 2022, at 9:30 A.M. (ET)
  • Crude EIA +8487K Exp -1600k Prior +1303K API +1618k
  • Cushing EIA -587K Exp +880k Prior +1379K API +92k
  • Gasoline EIA -3607K Exp -1615k Prior -2230K API +823k
  • Distillate EIA -913K Exp -606k Prior 2344K API +662k
  • Refinery Utilization -1.90% to 87.60% Exp -0.3%
  • Production UNCH 11,900kbpd (13.10 ATH)

Note in bbls *exp = Reuters poll est  adjusted for API shift, except Cushing

Update: IEA Oil Reserve Release



US Crude Oil Quick Look

On a 4-week avg basis, @EIAgov continues to peg US oil demand at a record high for this time of the year. The latest data puts demand at 21.64m b/d, highest ever for late January, and the highest in absolute terms since Aug 2019 (Chart is 20 years of seasonal data) via @JavierBlas Bloomberg

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via Giovanni Staunovo? @staunovo

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via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen

Weekly DoE US Petroleum Storage Report Breakdown

Weekly Storage via DOE

with RonH Data ‏@Ronh and The Fundamental Angle ‏@BrynneKKelly

  Via RonH at Ron H Public Tableau Link

The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

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API Crude Oil Inventories

US petroleum (Crude, SPR, oil products) inventories in million barrels (EIA)

Cushing Oil Stocks

Cushing, OK is the hub for the most heavily traded US oil Futures contract – West Intermediate Crude – WTI so for that reason we pay special attention to the storage there.

API Cushing Stocks

API Cushing

Weekly Update via RonH Data ‏@Ronh999

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Cushing OK Crude Oil Storage Stocks

Closer Look at Cushing with DigStic Data @DigStic

US Oil Import Export

Imports

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US crude imports by origin in kbpd (incl w/w change)

  • Canada -208 to 3284
  • Mexico +124 to 693
  • Saudi Arabia -248 to 306
  • Colombia -37 to 276
  • Iraq +145 to 326
  • Ecuador +285 to 351
  • Brazil +53 to 143
  • Russia unchanged at 0
  • Nigeria +93 to 136
  • Trinidad and Tobago +128 to 128
At 1.782 mb/d (+355 kb/d m/m), Russian crude cargoes are increasingly heading to Asia, with loadings for India assessed at 633 kb/d (+310 kb/d) and direct exports to China at 812 kb/d (+129 kb/d) so far in April

Exports

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US Gasoline Consumers

Input to Refineries

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US consumers bought +365.5 million gallons of gasoline per day last week. That is -4.1 mil YoY..

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US consumers spent $1,581.8 million dollars per day for gasoline last week. That is $+487.4 mil YoY.

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US avg retail price for gasoline was $4.328 last week. That is +1.367 YoY.

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US East coast diesel inventories 32 Year Lows

New York harbor, we have a problem: US East coast diesel inventories are now at the lowest **absolute** level in at least 32 years (not just seasonal), per EIA data released. The Eastern seaboard is running on diesel fumes via. Javier Blas@JavierBlas


Rig Watch

Baker Hughes Weekly North American Rigs Report

  • US Baker Hughes Rig Count 13-May: 714 (est 708; prev 705)
  • Rotary Gas Rigs: 149 (est 147; prev 146)
  • Rotary Oil Rigs: 563 (est 561; prev 557)

US Oil Rigs w/w changes by key shale basins

  • Permian unchanged at 334
  • Eagle Ford +1 to 53
  • Williston +1 to 37
  • Cana Woodford +2 to 27
  • DJ Niobrara unchanged at 15
US oil rigs and frac spread (Baker Hughes/Primary Vision)
via @staunovo

Canada Rigs

  • Canada averaged 92 active drilling rigs this week according to data from the Canadian Association of Energy Contractors. Of those rigs, 43% are drilling for natural gas, 47% are drilling for oil, 1% for other (helium, hydrogen, geothermal, or potash), and 9% are moving.
  • Drilling activity by province is 82% in Alberta, 3% in Saskatchewan, 7% in BC, and 8% elsewhere. Precision Drilling holds the majority of the Canadian market share with 34%, Ensign Drilling with 23%, Savanna Drilling with 11%, and Akita Drilling with 7%. via Camtrader

US oil rigs and frac spread (Baker Hughes/Primary Vision)

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Permian Basin Rigs

International oil rigs ex North America

International oil rigs ex North America down 4 m/m to 644 in April (Baker Hughes)

  • Abud Dhabi +5
  • Norway, Argentina +3
  • Egypt, Algeria, Brazil -3
  • Libya -8
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US Oil Production

US crude production changed benchmark May 11, 2022: Domestic crude oil production estimate incorporates a re-benchmarking that affected estimated volumes by less than 50,000 barrels per day, which is about 0.1% of this week’s estimated production total. via EIA

US Oil Field Production -100 kbpd to 11.80 mbpd (New Benchmark adj)

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Weather Watch

Gulf of Mexico


WTI Crude Oil Futures Technical Analysis

via KnovaWave @KnovaWave

US Crude Oil (WTI)

Daily:

Another big week for oil, after hitting our initial 8/8 target completing either a iii of (5) or (v) of 5 as marked. From there we saw a sharp ABC higher and MM recalculation higher to almost +3/8. We are in a completive mode with this impulse, it’s a question of degree on the topside, use the Murrey math 240/60 grid. On the way up potent WTI price action indicative of 3rd wave energy highlighted by spits of the Tenkan to new highs. Recall prior to this move the completion in 5 waves (iii or i) saw heavy selling with eventual confluence kiss of death with 50dma at the top of the cloud. From there down in 3 waves, completing a C or IV? Support wasn’t found until 0-8. From there we have accelerated higher through the cloud twist. Support Kijun and Tenkan. Closed above 50dma with grid above

The key is crowd behavior to help tell the story which in energy is often around geopolitics. A great example of why we watch ABC corrections and from here we get the energy from the break being balanced. This move that was powered by 50 dma Tenkan spit of a spit – hence the fractal energies reverberations. Support is previous lows, Murrey Math levels and Fib cluster. Support is the 50dma, kijun, tenkan and prev high confluence.

Weekly: WTI crude Oil futures continued higher after corrected the sell off after it’s measured move reversed from 7-year highs and regained them right to the top of the weekly channel with the downside open. Support is the median and Tenkan/Kijun. Long term 61.8% target fueled the spit of a spit by ABC bull flag after rebalanced Chikou sated the 5 waves. Support previous high and Weekly Tenkan & Kijun which closed turning up under the 61.8% to give next impulse clue after holding above 50wma after regaining energy above Tenkan and Kijun. Resistance the Murrey Math levels and previous breaks (off monthly)

These are special times, recall “After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all-time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications.” Above we have Murrey Math time and price

What we broke…….


Crude Oil Futures Commitment of Traders

Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data:

CTFC and ICE open interest:

Money managers increased their net-length in Brent crude oil futures and options by 3,963 contracts to 245,964 in the week ending May 3 Long-only positions fell by 288 Short-only positions fell by 4,251 other reportables net-length fell by 17,861 – ICE

Money managers increased their net-length in WTI crude oil futures and options by 2,054 contracts to 287,826 in the week ending May 3 Long-only positions rose by 3,300 Short-only positions rose by 1,246 other reportables net-length rose by 1,039 – CFTC

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Chart: Crude net-positioning of non-commercial accounts (=managed money and other reportables) in barrels and in US dollars (Brent and WTI futures and options combined) latest value is 22April 26

COT on energy in wk to Jan 25: Specs cut length in the WTI and Brent crudeoil contracts for the first time in six weeks ahead of $90/b Brent resistance and the FOMC meeting. Overall, the combined net long was cut by 19.5k lots to 540k lots

via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen

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The combined net long across 24 major commodity futures has fallen to a four month low at 1.85m lots. From a recent pre-war and pre-China lockdown peak on Feb 22 at 2.23m lots, energy length is down 23%, metals down 67% while the agriculture sector is up 2% led by softs

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Understanding DCOT Reports

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports – COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:

1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables


Crude Oil Option Volatility Watch

via commodityvol.com

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NYMEX LO = Crude Oil Options First 3 Months (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO & ICE North Sea Brent BRN Crude Oil Options (Live Link)

NYMEX LO NYMEX OH NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

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Among the most traded option strikes in this week in WTI and Brent we find an increased demand for > $100 strikes via @Ole_S_Hansen

Key EIA and CME Dates for WTI Crude Oil

Key EIA and CME Dates For WTI Crude Oil

From The TradersCommunity US Research Desk