Around The Barrel – Crude Oil Storage Falls as Products Try and Rebuild with Russian Tensions

Oil prices volatility continues unabated in the last week as the Russian situation deepened as Russia wants to be paid in Rouble. There is added uncertainty with the Iran Nuclear Deal and supply and demand functionality all in the price matrix. Last week Cushing oil inventory fell back towards the lowest since 2018. Distillates stocks near 8yr low as demand for jet fuel and diesel took off. SPR lowest in 20 years. EIA reported US Crude last week crude drew -3499bbl (incl -1009kbbl draw at Cushing). Gasoline stocks grew +785kbbl. Utilization rose 1.00% to 92.3%. Production +100k at 11,700 kbpd.

Cushing Storage Tanks
Cushing Storage Tanks

Around The Barrel Contents

Click on the links below to navigate to the relevant section.

  1. DOE & API Petroleum Storage Forecast Matrix
  2. Crude Oil Quick Summary
  3. Weekly DoE US Petroleum Storage Report Breakdown
  4. API Crude Inventories
  5. Cushing Oil Stocks
  6. Crude Imports
  7. Crude Exports
  8. Gasoline
  9. Rig Watch
  10. Crude Oil Production
  11. Weather
  12. WTI Crude Oil Futures Technical Analysis
  13. DCOT Report
  14. Option Volatility and Gamma
  15. Key EIA and CME Dates

DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report Forecast

  • via TradersCommunity.com
  • Report Date 3/23/21
  • Release Time: Wednesday, March 30, 2022, at 9:30 A.M. (ET)
  • Crude EIA -3449k Exp -2800k Prior -2508k API -3000k
  • Cushing EIA -1009k Exp -1100k Prior +1235k API -1061k
  • Gasoline EIA +785k Exp -1615k Prior –2948k API -1375k
  • Distillate EIA +1395k Exp -606k Prior -2071k API -215k
  • Refinery Utilization +0.7% to 91.30% Exp +0.3%
  • Production +100k to 11,700kbpd (13.10 ATH)

Note in bbls *exp = Reuters poll est  adjusted for API shift, except Cushing



US Crude Oil Quick Look

On a 4-week avg basis, @EIAgov continues to peg US oil demand at a record high for this time of the year. The latest data puts demand at 21.64m b/d, highest ever for late January, and the highest in absolute terms since Aug 2019 (Chart is 20 years of seasonal data) via @JavierBlas Bloomberg

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US oil rigs and frac spread (Baker Hughes/Primary Vision)

via Giovanni Staunovo? @staunovo

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via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen

Weekly DoE US Petroleum Storage Report Breakdown

Weekly Storage via DOE

with RonH Data ‏@Ronh and The Fundamental Angle ‏@BrynneKKelly

  Via RonH at Ron H Public Tableau Link

The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

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API Crude Oil Inventories

API Crude Inventories

US petroleum (Crude, SPR, oil products) inventories in million barrels (EIA)

Cushing Oil Stocks

Cushing, OK is the hub for the most heavily traded US oil Futures contract – West Intermediate Crude – WTI so for that reason we pay special attention to the storage there.

API Cushing Stocks

API Cushing

Weekly Update via RonH Data ‏@Ronh999

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Cushing OK Crude Oil Storage Stocks

Closer Look at Cushing with DigStic Data @DigStic

US Oil Import Export

Imports

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US crude imports by origin in kbpd (incl w/w change)

  • Canada -194 to 3612
  • Mexico +90 to 731
  • Saudi Arabia -201 to 333
  • Colombia +212 to 284
  • Iraq -407 to 82
  • Ecuador -7 to 96
  • Brazil -78 to 72
  • Russia +30 to 100
  • Nigeria +146 to 148
  • Trinidad and Tobago +75 to 75

Exports

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US Gasoline Consumers

Input to Refineries

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US consumers bought +357.0 million gallons of gasoline per day last week. That is -16.5 mil YoY.

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US consumers spent $1,510.3 million dollars per day for gasoline last week. That is $+445.3 mil YoY

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US avg retail price for gasoline was $4.231 last week. That is +1.379 YoY.

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Rig Watch

Baker Hughes Weekly North American Rigs Report

  • US Baker Hughes Rig Count 01-Apr: 673 (est 674; prev 670)
  • – Rotary Gas Rigs: 138 (est 138; prev 137)
  • – Rotary Oil Rigs: 533 (est 535; prev 531)

US Oil Rigs w/w changes by key shale basins

  • Permian +4 to 322
  • Eagle Ford -1 to 47
  • Williston -1 to 32
  • Cana Woodford +1 to 25
  • DJ Niobrara unchanged at 14
US oil rigs and frac spread (Baker Hughes/Primary Vision)
via @staunovo

Canada Rigs

  • Canada averaged 144 active drilling rigs this week according to data from the Canadian Association of Energy Contractors. Of those rigs, 34% are drilling for natural gas, 54% are drilling for oil, 4% for other (helium, hydrogen, geothermal, or potash), and 8% are moving.
  • Drilling activity by province is 88% in Alberta, 3% in Saskatchewan, 4% in BC, and 5% elsewhere. Precision Drilling holds the majority of the Canadian market share with 33%, Ensign Drilling with 24%, Savanna Drilling with 11%, Horizon Drilling with 6%, Akita Drilling with 6%, and Bonanza Drilling with 5%. via Camtrader

US oil rigs and frac spread (Baker Hughes/Primary Vision)

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Permian Basin Rigs

International oil rigs ex North America

International oil rigs ex North America remained unchanged at 642 in January

  • Colombia +4
  • Qatar +3
  • Iraq, Brazil, Indonesia +2
  • Turkey, Mexico-2
  • Oman, Argentina -3 Abu Dhabi -4
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US Oil Production

US Oil Field Production Rose 100k to 11.700mbpd Off ATH 13.10mpd

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Weather Watch

Gulf of Mexico


WTI Crude Oil Futures Technical Analysis

via KnovaWave @KnovaWave

US Crude Oil (WTI)

Daily:

Another big week for oil, after hitting our initial 8/8 target completing either a iii of (5) or (v) of 5 as marked. From there we saw a sharp ABC higher and MM recalculation higher to almost +3/8. We are in a completive mode with this impulse, it’s a question of degree on the topside, use the Murrey math 240/60 grid. On the way up potent WTI price action indicative of 3rd wave energy highlighted by spits of the Tenkan to new highs. Recall prior to this move the completion in 5 waves (iii or i) saw heavy selling with eventual confluence kiss of death with 50dma at the top of the cloud. From there down in 3 waves, completing a C or IV? Support wasn’t found until 0-8. From there we have accelerated higher through the cloud twist. Support Kijun and Tenkan. Closed above 50dma with grid above

The key is crowd behavior to help tell the story which in energy is often around geopolitics. A great example of why we watch ABC corrections and from here we get the energy from the break being balanced. This move that was powered by 50 dma Tenkan spit of a spit – hence the fractal energies reverberations. Support is previous lows, Murrey Math levels and Fib cluster. Support is the 50dma, kijun, tenkan and prev high confluence.

Weekly: WTI crude Oil futures continued higher after corrected the sell off after it’s measured move reversed from 7-year highs and regained them right to the top of the weekly channel with the downside open. Support is the median and Tenkan/Kijun. Long term 61.8% target fueled the spit of a spit by ABC bull flag after rebalanced Chikou sated the 5 waves. Support previous high and Weekly Tenkan & Kijun which closed turning up under the 61.8% to give next impulse clue after holding above 50wma after regaining energy above Tenkan and Kijun. Resistance the Murrey Math levels and previous breaks (off monthly)

These are special times, recall “After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all-time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications.” Above we have Murrey Math time and price

What we broke…….

WTI W 11 5 2021 Fibs


Crude Oil Futures Commitment of Traders

Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data:

CTFC and ICE open interest:

Money managers increased their net-length in Brent crude oil futures and options by 7,832 contracts to 160,437 in the week ending March 22 Long-only positions rose by 8,536 Short-only positions rose by 704 other reportables net-length rose by 10,569 – ICE

Money managers increased their net-length in WTI crude oil futures and options by 5,118 contracts to 263,857 in the week ending March 22 Long-only positions rose by 3,276 Short-only positions fell by 1,842 other reportables net-length fell by 1,151 – CFTC

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Chart: Crude net-positioning of non-commercial accounts (=managed money and other reportables) in barrels and in US dollars (Brent and WTI futures and options combined) latest value is March 22

COT on energy in wk to Jan 25: Specs cut length in the WTI and Brent crudeoil contracts for the first time in six weeks ahead of $90/b Brent resistance and the FOMC meeting. Overall, the combined net long was cut by 19.5k lots to 540k lots

via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen

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Understanding DCOT Reports

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports – COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:

1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables


Crude Oil Option Volatility Watch

via commodityvol.com

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NYMEX LO = Crude Oil Options First 3 Months (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO & ICE North Sea Brent BRN Crude Oil Options (Live Link)

NYMEX LO NYMEX OH NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

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Among the most traded option strikes in this week in WTI and Brent we find an increased demand for > $100 strikes via @Ole_S_Hansen

Key EIA and CME Dates for WTI Crude Oil

Key EIA and CME Dates For WTI Crude Oil

From The TradersCommunity US Research Desk