Around The Barrel – Cushing Oil Inventory Lowest Since 2018, SPR Stocks at 20 Year Low

Oil prices continue to elevate with the Russian Ukraine potential conflict at the forefront, WTI trading near $95 Bbl. Cushing oil inventory at the lowest since 2018. Distillates stocks at 3yr low as demand for jet fuel and diesel taking off. SPR lowest in 20 years. EIA reported US Crude last week crude grew +1121Kbbl (incl -1900kbbl draw at Cushing). Gasoline stocks drew -1332kbbl. Utilization fell -2.90% to 85.3%. Production UNCH at 11,600 kbpd. EIA estimate for US oil demand running near all-time high, above the 2019 pre-pandemic seasonal levels

Cushing Storage Tanks
Cushing Storage Tanks

Around The Barrel Contents

Click on the links below to navigate to the relevant section.

  1. DOE & API Petroleum Storage Forecast Matrix
  2. Crude Oil Quick Summary
  3. Weekly DoE US Petroleum Storage Report Breakdown
  4. API Crude Inventories
  5. Cushing Oil Stocks
  6. Crude Imports
  7. Crude Exports
  8. Gasoline
  9. Rig Watch
  10. Crude Oil Production
  11. Weather
  12. WTI Crude Oil Futures Technical Analysis
  13. DCOT Report
  14. Option Volatility and Gamma
  15. Key EIA and CME Dates

DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report Forecast

  • via TradersCommunity.com
  • Report Date 2/9/21
  • Release Time: Wednesday, February 16, 2022, at 9:30 A.M. (ET)

Note in bbls *exp = Reuters poll est  adjusted for API shift, except Cushing

 EIAExpPrior API
Crude+2174k-420k-4756k -1076k
Cushing-1900k-2664k-2801k -2382k
Gasoline-1332k-1803k-1644k-923k
Distillate-1552k+168k-929k -2382k
Weekly US Crude Oil Storage Report
  • Refinery Utilization -2.90% to 85.30% Exp -.5%
  • Production  UNCH to 11,600 kbpd (13.10 ATH)

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week (Live Link)

Due to a public holiday on Monday, the US oil inventory report (weekly petroleum status report) will be released Thursday Feb 24 at 11am ET


Iran Nuclear Talks Update

The United States on Friday said they are waiving sanctions on Iran’s civil nuclear program in a desperate attempt for the Biden administration to secure a return to the 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran. The State Department notified Congress of the waiver Friday. The change in policy would allow other countries to cooperate on certain nonproliferation activities necessary to return to the international nuclear agreement.

“This is not a signal that we are about to reach an understanding on a mutual return to full implementation” of the JCPOA, the Obama-era Iran nuclear agreement, a State Department official told NBC News.

Nuclear talks between world powers are entering their final stretch, with negotiators in Vienna hoping to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA. Iran is said to be just weeks away from being able to produce enough weapons grade material for a nuclear bomb.

Iran’s foreign minister quickly rebuked the move. “The lifting of some sanctions can in itself translate into good faith,” Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said, according to Iranian state media. “But it’s not enough.”

“Iran’s legal right to continue research and development and maintain its peaceful nuclear capabilities and achievements, side by side with its security … cannot be curbed by any agreement,” Ali Shamkhani, Iran’s top security official, tweeted.


US Crude Oil Quick Look

On a 4-week avg basis, @EIAgov continues to peg US oil demand at a record high for this time of the year. The latest data puts demand at 21.64m b/d, highest ever for late January, and the highest in absolute terms since Aug 2019 (Chart is 20 years of seasonal data) via @JavierBlas Bloomberg

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US oil rigs and frac spread (Baker Hughes/Primary Vision)

via Giovanni Staunovo? @staunovo

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via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen

Weekly DoE US Petroleum Storage Report Breakdown

Weekly Storage via DOE

with RonH Data ‏@Ronh and The Fundamental Angle ‏@BrynneKKelly

  Via RonH at Ron H Public Tableau Link

The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

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API Crude Oil Inventories

API Crude Inventories

US petroleum (Crude, SPR, oil products) inventories in million barrels (EIA)

Cushing Oil Stocks

Cushing, OK is the hub for the most heavily traded US oil Futures contract – West Intermediate Crude – WTI so for that reason we pay special attention to the storage there.

API Cushing Stocks

API Cushing

Weekly Update via RonH Data ‏@Ronh999

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Cushing OK Crude Oil Storage Stocks

Closer Look at Cushing with DigStic Data @DigStic

US Oil Import Export

Imports

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US crude imports by origin in kbpd (incl w/w change)

  • Canada -289 to 3342
  • Mexico -448 to 510
  • Saudi Arabia -133 to 250
  • Colombia +66 to 324 Iraq -1 to 225
  • Ecuador -3 to 98 Brazil +134 to 205
  • Russia -45 to 93
  • Nigeria +38 to 182
  • Trinidad and Tobago +71 to 71

Exports

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US Gasoline Consumers

Input to Refineries

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US consumers bought +359.90 million gallons of gasoline per day last week. That is +6.8 mil YoY.

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US consumers spent $1,255.10 million dollars per day for gasoline last week. That is +$372.0 mil YoY

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US avg retail price for gasoline was $3.487 last week. That is +0.986 YoY.

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Rig Watch

Baker Hughes Weekly North American Rigs Report

  • US Baker Hughes Rig Count 11-Feb: 635 (est 617; prev 613)
  • Rotary Gas Rigs: 118 (est 116; prev 116)
  • Rotary Oil Rigs: 516 (est 501; prev 497)

US Oil Rigs  w/w changes by key shale basins

  • Permian +5 to 306
  • Eagle Ford -2 to 45
  • Williston unchanged at 33
  • Cana Woodford +1 to 26
  • DJ Niobrara +2 to 14
via @staunovo

Canada Rigs

  • Canadian up by 6 this week as post-Christmas break recovery continues.
  • 212 on the week ending this day for 2022 vs. 167 in 2021.

US oil rigs and frac spread (Baker Hughes/Primary Vision)

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Permian Basin Rigs

International oil rigs ex North America

International oil rigs ex North America remained unchanged at 642 in January

  • Colombia +4
  • Qatar +3
  • Iraq, Brazil, Indonesia +2
  • Turkey, Mexico-2
  • Oman, Argentina -3 Abu Dhabi -4
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US Oil Production

US Oil Field Production UNCH 11.600mbpd Off ATH 13.10mpd

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Weather Watch

Gulf of Mexico


WTI Crude Oil Futures Technical Analysis

via KnovaWave @KnovaWave

US Crude Oil (WTI)

The backwardation structure of all crude prices steepened in October and the calendar spread between the nearest futures contracts moved into deeper backwardation. This reflected the market perception of stronger market fundamentals in the near-term and lower global crude oil inventory levels. The prospect of higher oil demand during the winter season due to gas to oil switching, amid soaring gas prices in the main trading hubs, and the forecast of slower non-OPEC oil supply growth, have pushed the near-month contract spreads higher compared to later month contracts.

Daily:

Another big week for oil, after hitting our initial 8/8 target completing either a iii of (5) or (v) of 5 as marked. From there we saw a sharp ABC higher and MM recalculation higher. We are in a completive mode with this impulse, it’s a question of degree on the topside, use the Murrey math 240/60 grid. On the way up potent WTI price action indicative of 3rd wave energy highlighted by spits of the Tenkan to new highs. Recall prior to this move the completion in 5 waves (iii or i) saw heavy selling with eventual confluence kiss of death with 50dma at the top of the cloud. From there down in 3 waves, completing a C or IV? Support wasn’t found until 0-8. From there we have accelerated higher through the cloud twist. Support Kijun and Tenkan. Closed above 50dma with grid above

The key is crowd behavior to help tell the story which in energy is often around geopolitics. A great example of why we watch ABC corrections and from here we get the energy from the break being balanced. This move that was powered by 50 dma Tenkan spit of a spit – hence the fractal energies reverberations. Support is previous lows, Murrey Math levels and Fib cluster. Support is the 50dma, kijun, tenkan and prev high confluence.

Weekly: WTI crude Oil futures continued higher after corrected the sell off after it’s measured move reversed from 7-year highs and regained them right to the top of the weekly channel with the downside open. Support is the median and Tenkan/Kijun. Long term 61.8% target fueled the spit of a spit by ABC bull flag after rebalanced Chikou sated the 5 waves. Support previous high and Weekly Tenkan & Kijun which closed turning up under the 61.8% to give next impulse clue after holding above 50wma after regaining energy above Tenkan and Kijun. Resistance the Murrey Math levels and previous breaks (off monthly)

These are special times, recall “After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all-time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications.” Above we have Murrey Math time and price

What we broke…….

WTI W 11 5 2021 Fibs


Crude Oil Futures Commitment of Traders

Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data:

CTFC and ICE open interest:

Money managers reduced their net-length in Brent crude oil futures and options by 6,694 contracts to 222,897 in the week ending February 8

Long-only positions fell by 3,514
Short-only positions rose by 3,180
other reportables net-length rose by 9,475

– ICE

Money managers reduced their net-length in WTI crude oil futures and options by 7,723 contracts to 296,149 in the week ending February 8

Long-only positions fell by 3,900
Short-only positions rose by 3,823

other reportables net-length rose by 5,185

– CFTC

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Chart: Crude net-positioning of non-commercial accounts (=managed money and other reportables) in barrels and in US dollars (Brent and WTI futures and options combined) latest value is February 8

COT on energy in wk to Jan 25: Specs cut length in the WTI and Brent crudeoil contracts for the first time in six weeks ahead of $90/b Brent resistance and the FOMC meeting. Overall, the combined net long was cut by 19.5k lots to 540k lots

via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen

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Understanding DCOT Reports

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports – COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:

1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables


Crude Oil Option Volatility Watch

via commodityvol.com

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NYMEX LO = Crude Oil Options First 3 Months (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO & ICE North Sea Brent BRN Crude Oil Options (Live Link)

NYMEX LO NYMEX OH NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

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Among the most traded option strikes in this week in WTI and Brent we find an increased demand for > $100 strikes via @Ole_S_Hansen

Key EIA and CME Dates for WTI Crude Oil

Key EIA and CME Dates For WTI Crude Oil

From The TradersCommunity US Research Desk