WTI Oil prices tumbled after July 4 over $10 and 8% to under $100 bbl and has steadied back over $102 after of storage reports. With all the noise around gasoline prices it was notable US exports of refined petroleum products surged last week to an all-time high of 6.96 million barrels per day. Last week the EIA reported refinery utilization was at its highest in over 2 years. EIA reported US Crude last week grew +8235Kbbl (incl: +69K build at Cushing). Gasoline stocks drew – 2497Kbbl. Factoring in SPR crude oil stocks rose +2.4 mil bbls including a -5.8 mil bbls SPR draw. Production held at 12.1 mil b/d the highest since April 2020.
The crude oil market came under pressure this week as uncertainty increased with risk assets as the threat of demand destruction with recession fears brought on by rising interest rates. In the past few weeks, the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, ECB, Swiss National Bank, Bank of Canada, RBNZ, RBA, South Korea, Brazil and Mexico Central Banks have all raised interest rates. Furthermore, Russia’s President Putin continues to threaten the world with rants over world energy and food supply as he continues his attack and bombardment of Ukraine. The headline risk around the EU phasing out Russian oil by year end overhangs.
Around The Barrel Contents
Click on the links below to navigate to the relevant section.
- DOE & API Petroleum Storage Forecast Matrix
- Crude Oil Quick Summary
- Weekly DoE US Petroleum Storage Report Breakdown
- API Crude Inventories
- Cushing Oil Stocks
- Crude Imports
- Crude Exports
- Gasoline
- Rig Watch
- Crude Oil Production
- Weather
- WTI Crude Oil Futures Technical Analysis
- DCOT Report
- Option Volatility and Gamma
- Key EIA and CME Dates
DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report Forecast
- via TradersCommunity.com
- Report Date 7/1/21
- Release Time: Thursday, July 7, 2022, at 11:00 A.M. (ET)
- Crude EIA +8235K Exp +1190k Prior -2762K API +3825k
- Cushing EIA +69K Exp +416k Prior -782K API +0.459k
- Gasoline EIA -2497K Exp +482k Prior +2645K API -1814k
- Distillate EIA +K Exp +1657k Prior +2559K API -635k
- Refinery Utilization -0.5% to 94.2% Exp -0.3%
- Refinery utilization in PADD3 (Gulf Coast) %
- Production UNH 12,100kbpd (13.10 ATH)
Note in bbls *exp = Reuters poll est adjusted for API shift, except Cushing
Update: PADD 3 Refinery Utilization
US Crude Oil Quick Look
Oil prices continue to be subject to geopolitical bifurcation dynamics with sudden changes that accompanies the onset of chaos. The unexpected knock-ons continue with imperfect bifurcation with political influence and personal vagaries from world leaders such as Putin, Scholz and Biden in addition to routine crude dynamics.
East Coast diesel and heating oil inventories at fresh 32-year low (only data since 1990). The pricing hub of New York Harbor is virtually dry as oil prices continue to fluctuate with geopolitical elements and demand headwinds such as soaring interest rates, China’s COVID lockdowns, SPR releases consequences deepening all in the price matrix.
via Giovanni Staunovo? @staunovo
Rising crude oil AND rising refinery margins have pushed gasoline to a record high price and diesel near the late April record
via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen
Weekly DoE US Petroleum Storage Report Breakdown
Weekly Storage via DOE
with RonH Data @Ronh and The Fundamental Angle @BrynneKKelly
Via RonH at Ron H Public Tableau Link
The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly
API Crude Oil Inventories
US petroleum (Crude, SPR, oil products) inventories in million barrels (EIA)
The US continues draining it’s SPR to its lowest level since January 1987. Over the last 2 weeks, the US gov has injected 13.7 million barrels from the SPR into the market. Commercial oil stockpiles still fell 3 million barrels over that period.
If Washington sticks to its current pace, the reserve will shrink to a 40-year low of 358 million barrels by the end of October, when the releases are due to stop Bloomberg reported.
Cushing Oil Stocks
Cushing, OK is the hub for the most heavily traded US oil Futures contract – West Intermediate Crude – WTI so for that reason we pay special attention to the storage there.
API Cushing Stocks
Weekly Update via RonH Data @Ronh999
Closer Look at Cushing with DigStic Data @DigStic
US Oil Import Export
Imports
US crude imports by origin in kbpd (incl w/w change)
- Canada -209 to 3394
- Mexico -103 to 608
- Saudi Arabia +332 to 681
- Colombia +149 to 292
- Iraq +359 to 555
- Ecuador -32 to 227
- Brazil +164 to 206
- Russia unchanged at 0
- Nigeria -13 to 181
Exports
“Oil exports from the US Gulf Coast are set to hit an all-time high of 3.3 million barrels per day Q2 2022, as refining capacity outages limit operators’ ability to meet demand and the US government’s SPR release boosts supply,” says @RystadEnergy
US Gasoline Consumers
Input to Refineries
US consumers bought +395.3 million gallons of gasoline per day last week. That is -26.5 mil YoY.
US consumers spent $1,886.2 million dollars per day for gasoline last week. That is $+569.3 mil YoY.
US avg retail price for gasoline was $4.771 last week. That is +1.649 YoY.
US East coast diesel inventories 32 Year Lows
New York harbor, we have a problem: US East coast diesel inventories are now at the lowest **absolute** level in at least 32 years (not just seasonal), per EIA data released. The Eastern seaboard is running on diesel fumes via. Javier Blas@JavierBlas
Rig Watch
Baker Hughes Weekly North American Rigs Report
- US Baker Hughes Rig Count 08-Jul: 752 (prev 750)
- Rotary Gas Rigs: 153 (prev 153)
- Rotary Oil Rigs: 597 (prev 595)
For the month, the oil rig count rose for a record 21 months in a row, while the gas rig count was up for a ninth month in a row, the most since May 2017.
US Oil Rigs w/w changes by key shale basins
- Permian +1 to 349
- Eagle Ford unchanged at 60
- Williston unchanged at 37
- Cana Woodford unchanged at 27
- DJ Niobrara unchanged at 16
Canada Rigs
- Canada averaged 95 active drilling rigs this week according to data from the Canadian Association of Energy Contractors. Of those rigs, 39% are drilling for natural gas, 49% are drilling for oil, 2% for other (helium, hydrogen, geothermal, or potash), and 10% are moving.
- Drilling activity by province is 78% in Alberta, 9% in Saskatchewan, 7% in BC, and 6% elsewhere. Precision Drilling holds the majority of the Canadian market share with 34%, Ensign Drilling with 24%, Savanna Drilling with 12%, and Akita Drilling with 6% via Camtrader
US oil rigs and frac spread (Baker Hughes/Primary Vision)
International oil rigs ex North America
International oil rigs ex North America down 4 m/m to 644 in April (Baker Hughes)
- Abud Dhabi +5
- Norway, Argentina +3
- Egypt, Algeria, Brazil -3
- Libya -8
US Oil Production
US crude production changed benchmark May 11, 2022: Domestic crude oil production estimate incorporates a re-benchmarking that affected estimated volumes by less than 50,000 barrels per day, which is about 0.1% of this week’s estimated production total. via EIA
US Oil Field Production UNCH kbpd to 12.10 mbpd (New Benchmark adj)
Weather Watch
Gulf of Mexico
WTI Crude Oil Futures Technical Analysis
via KnovaWave @KnovaWave
US Crude Oil (WTI)
Daily:
Another big week for oil, after hitting our initial 8/8 target retest completing either a iii of (5) or (v) of 5 as marked. From there we saw a grinding ABC or 1 of 3 higher and MM recalculation higher to almost +2/8 and 161.8% Fib retest. We are in a completive mode with this impulse, it’s a question of degree on the topside, use the Murrey math 240/60 grid.
On the way up potent WTI price action indicative of 3rd wave energy highlighted by spits of the Tenkan to new highs. Recall prior to this move the completion in 5 waves (iii or i) saw heavy selling with eventual confluence kiss of death with 50dma at the top of the cloud. From there down in 3 waves, completing a C or IV? Support wasn’t found until 0-8. From there we have accelerated higher through the cloud twist. Support Kijun and Tenkan. Closed above 50dma with grid above
The key is crowd behavior to help tell the story which in energy is often around geopolitics. A great example of why we watch ABC corrections and from here we get the energy from the break being balanced. This move that was powered by 50 dma Tenkan spit of a spit – hence the fractal energies reverberations. Support is previous lows, Murrey Math levels and Fib cluster. Support is the 50dma, kijun, tenkan and prev high confluence.
Weekly: WTI crude Oil futures continued higher after corrected the sell off to the Kijun. That was after it’s measured move reversed from 7-year highs and regained them right to the top of the weekly channel with the downside open. Risk support is the grid. Long term 61.8% target fueled the spit of a spit by ABC bull flag after rebalanced Chikou sated the 5 waves. Support previous high and Weekly Tenkan & Kijun which closed turning up under the 100% to give next impulse clue after holding above 50wma after regaining energy above Tenkan and Kijun. Resistance the Murrey Math levels and previous breaks (off monthly)
These are special times, recall “After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all-time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications.” Above we have Murrey Math time and price
What we broke…….
Crude Oil Futures Commitment of Traders
Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data:
CTFC and ICE open interest:
Money managers increased their net-length in Brent crude oil futures and options by 10,543 contracts to 239,336 in the week ending June 14
- Long-only positions rose by 6,890
- Short-only positions fell by 3,653
- other reportables net-length fell by 10,054
– ICE
Money managers reduced their net-length in WTI crude oil futures and options by 18,895 contracts to 265,984 in the week ending June 14
- Long-only positions fell by 12,913
- Short-only positions rose by 5,982
- other reportables net-length fell by 7,064
– CFTC
Chart: Crude net-positioning of non-commercial accounts (=managed money and other reportables) in barrels and in US dollars (Brent and WTI futures and options combined) latest value is May 31
via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen
Understanding DCOT Reports
Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports – COT, TFF and DCOT to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:
1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables
Crude Oil Option Volatility Watch
via commodityvol.com
NYMEX LO = Crude Oil Options First 3 Months (Live Link)
NYMEX LO & ICE North Sea Brent BRN Crude Oil Options (Live Link)
NYMEX LO NYMEX OH NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)
NYMEX LO NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)
Key EIA and CME Dates for WTI Crude Oil
Key EIA and CME Dates For WTI Crude Oil
From The TradersCommunity US Research Desk