The U.S. continues to drain it’s SPR which have not alleviated product shortages and the headline risk around the EU phasing out Russian oil by year end. EIA reported US Crude last week drew -3394Kbbl (incl: -2403K Draw at Cushing). Gasoline stocks drew -4779kbbl. Utilization rose -1.80% to 89.4%. Production -100k to 11,800 kbpd.
East Coast diesel and heating oil inventories at fresh 32-year low (only data since 1990). The pricing hub of New York Harbor is virtually dry as oil prices continue to fluctuate with geopolitical elements and demand headwinds such as soaring interest rates, China’s COVID lockdowns, SPR releases consequences deepening all in the price matrix. SPR lowest in 20 years.
Around The Barrel Contents
Click on the links below to navigate to the relevant section.
- DOE & API Petroleum Storage Forecast Matrix
- Crude Oil Quick Summary
- Weekly DoE US Petroleum Storage Report Breakdown
- API Crude Inventories
- Cushing Oil Stocks
- Crude Imports
- Crude Exports
- Gasoline
- Rig Watch
- Crude Oil Production
- Weather
- WTI Crude Oil Futures Technical Analysis
- DCOT Report
- Option Volatility and Gamma
- Key EIA and CME Dates
DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report Forecast
- via TradersCommunity.com
- Report Date 5/11/21
- Release Time: Wednesday, May 18, 2022, at 9:30 A.M. (ET)
- Crude EIA -3394K Exp +1600k Prior +8487K API -2445k
- Cushing EIA -2403K Exp -2501k Prior -587K API -3071k
- Gasoline EIA -4779K Exp -4615k Prior-3607K API -5102k
- Distillate EIA +1235K Exp +606k Prior -913K API +1075k
- Refinery Utilization 1.80% to 89.40% Exp +0.3%
- Production UNCH 11,900kbpd (13.10 ATH)
Note in bbls *exp = Reuters poll est adjusted for API shift, except Cushing
Update: IEA Oil Reserve Release
US Crude Oil Quick Look
On a 4-week avg basis, @EIAgov continues to peg US oil demand at a record high for this time of the year. The latest data puts demand at 21.64m b/d, highest ever for late January, and the highest in absolute terms since Aug 2019 (Chart is 20 years of seasonal data) via @JavierBlas Bloomberg
via Giovanni Staunovo? @staunovo
via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen
Weekly DoE US Petroleum Storage Report Breakdown
Weekly Storage via DOE
with RonH Data @Ronh and The Fundamental Angle @BrynneKKelly
Via RonH at Ron H Public Tableau Link
The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly
API Crude Oil Inventories
US petroleum (Crude, SPR, oil products) inventories in million barrels (EIA)
Cushing Oil Stocks
Cushing, OK is the hub for the most heavily traded US oil Futures contract – West Intermediate Crude – WTI so for that reason we pay special attention to the storage there.
API Cushing Stocks
Weekly Update via RonH Data @Ronh999
Closer Look at Cushing with DigStic Data @DigStic
US Oil Import Export
Imports
US crude imports by origin in kbpd (incl w/w change)
- Canada +304 to 3588
- Mexico +139 to 832
- Saudi Arabia +114 to 420
- Colombia +89 to 365
- Iraq -84 to 242
- Ecuador -308 to 43
- Brazil +121 to 264
- Russia unchanged at 0
- Nigeria -9 to 127
- Trinidad and Tobago -128 to 0
Exports
US Gasoline Consumers
Input to Refineries
US consumers bought +379.1 million gallons of gasoline per day last week. That is -8.3 mil YoY.
US consumers spent $1,702.7 million dollars per day for gasoline last week. That is $+529.6 mil YoY.
US avg retail price for gasoline was $4.491 last week. That is +1.463 YoY.
US East coast diesel inventories 32 Year Lows
New York harbor, we have a problem: US East coast diesel inventories are now at the lowest **absolute** level in at least 32 years (not just seasonal), per EIA data released. The Eastern seaboard is running on diesel fumes via. Javier Blas@JavierBlas
Rig Watch
Baker Hughes Weekly North American Rigs Report
- US Baker Hughes Rig Count 20-May: 728 (prev 714)
- Rotary Gas Rigs: 150 (prev 149)
- Rotary Oil Rigs: 576 (est 565; prev 563)
US Oil Rigs w/w changes by key shale basins
- Permian +8 to 342
- Eagle Ford +3 to 56
- Williston unchanged at 37
- Cana Woodford unchanged at 27
- DJ Niobrara unchanged at 15
Canada Rigs
- Canada averaged 95 active drilling rigs this week according to data from the Canadian Association of Energy Contractors. Of those rigs, 39% are drilling for natural gas, 49% are drilling for oil, 2% for other (helium, hydrogen, geothermal, or potash), and 10% are moving.
- Drilling activity by province is 78% in Alberta, 9% in Saskatchewan, 7% in BC, and 6% elsewhere. Precision Drilling holds the majority of the Canadian market share with 34%, Ensign Drilling with 24%, Savanna Drilling with 12%, and Akita Drilling with 6% via Camtrader
US oil rigs and frac spread (Baker Hughes/Primary Vision)
International oil rigs ex North America
International oil rigs ex North America down 4 m/m to 644 in April (Baker Hughes)
- Abud Dhabi +5
- Norway, Argentina +3
- Egypt, Algeria, Brazil -3
- Libya -8
US Oil Production
US crude production changed benchmark May 11, 2022: Domestic crude oil production estimate incorporates a re-benchmarking that affected estimated volumes by less than 50,000 barrels per day, which is about 0.1% of this week’s estimated production total. via EIA
US Oil Field Production -100 kbpd to 11.80 mbpd (New Benchmark adj)
Weather Watch
Gulf of Mexico
WTI Crude Oil Futures Technical Analysis
via KnovaWave @KnovaWave
US Crude Oil (WTI)
Daily:
Another big week for oil, after hitting our initial 8/8 target completing either a iii of (5) or (v) of 5 as marked. From there we saw a sharp ABC higher and MM recalculation higher to almost +3/8. We are in a completive mode with this impulse, it’s a question of degree on the topside, use the Murrey math 240/60 grid. On the way up potent WTI price action indicative of 3rd wave energy highlighted by spits of the Tenkan to new highs. Recall prior to this move the completion in 5 waves (iii or i) saw heavy selling with eventual confluence kiss of death with 50dma at the top of the cloud. From there down in 3 waves, completing a C or IV? Support wasn’t found until 0-8. From there we have accelerated higher through the cloud twist. Support Kijun and Tenkan. Closed above 50dma with grid above
The key is crowd behavior to help tell the story which in energy is often around geopolitics. A great example of why we watch ABC corrections and from here we get the energy from the break being balanced. This move that was powered by 50 dma Tenkan spit of a spit – hence the fractal energies reverberations. Support is previous lows, Murrey Math levels and Fib cluster. Support is the 50dma, kijun, tenkan and prev high confluence.
Weekly: WTI crude Oil futures continued higher after corrected the sell off after it’s measured move reversed from 7-year highs and regained them right to the top of the weekly channel with the downside open. Support is the median and Tenkan/Kijun. Long term 61.8% target fueled the spit of a spit by ABC bull flag after rebalanced Chikou sated the 5 waves. Support previous high and Weekly Tenkan & Kijun which closed turning up under the 61.8% to give next impulse clue after holding above 50wma after regaining energy above Tenkan and Kijun. Resistance the Murrey Math levels and previous breaks (off monthly)
These are special times, recall “After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all-time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications.” Above we have Murrey Math time and price
What we broke…….
Crude Oil Futures Commitment of Traders
Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data:
CTFC and ICE open interest:
Money managers increased their net-length in Brent crude oil futures and options by 3,963 contracts to 245,964 in the week ending May 3 Long-only positions fell by 288 Short-only positions fell by 4,251 other reportables net-length fell by 17,861 – ICE
Money managers reduced their net-length in WTI crude oil futures and options by 5,431 contracts to 248,952 in the week ending May 10 Long-only positions fell by 1,607 Short-only positions rose by 3,824other reportables net-length fell by 9,313 – CFTC
Chart: Crude net-positioning of non-commercial accounts (=managed money and other reportables) in barrels and in US dollars (Brent and WTI futures and options combined) latest value is 22April 26
COT on energy in wk to Jan 25: Specs cut length in the WTI and Brent crudeoil contracts for the first time in six weeks ahead of $90/b Brent resistance and the FOMC meeting. Overall, the combined net long was cut by 19.5k lots to 540k lots
via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen
The combined net long across 24 major commodity futures has fallen to a four month low at 1.85m lots. From a recent pre-war and pre-China lockdown peak on Feb 22 at 2.23m lots, energy length is down 23%, metals down 67% while the agriculture sector is up 2% led by softs
Understanding DCOT Reports
Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports – COT, TFF and DCOT to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:
1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables
Crude Oil Option Volatility Watch
via commodityvol.com
NYMEX LO = Crude Oil Options First 3 Months (Live Link)
NYMEX LO & ICE North Sea Brent BRN Crude Oil Options (Live Link)
NYMEX LO NYMEX OH NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)
NYMEX LO NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)
Key EIA and CME Dates for WTI Crude Oil
Key EIA and CME Dates For WTI Crude Oil
From The TradersCommunity US Research Desk