US Oil prices have experienced extreme volatility, having traded between $93 and $129 in the last week as the Russian situation deepened and with new Chinese COVID lockdowns. There is added uncertainty with the Iran Nuclear Deal and supply and demand functionality all in the price matrix. Cushing oil inventory rose off the lowest since 2018. Distillates stocks at 8yr low as demand for jet fuel and diesel taking off. SPR lowest in 20 years. EIA reported US Crude last week crude grew +4345bbl (incl +1786kbbl build at Cushing). Gasoline stocks drew -3615kbbl. Utilization rose 1.10% to 90.43%. Production UNCH at 11,600 kbpd.
Around The Barrel Contents
Click on the links below to navigate to the relevant section.
- DOE & API Petroleum Storage Forecast Matrix
- Crude Oil Quick Summary
- Weekly DoE US Petroleum Storage Report Breakdown
- API Crude Inventories
- Cushing Oil Stocks
- Crude Imports
- Crude Exports
- Rig Watch
- Crude Oil Production
- WTI Crude Oil Futures Technical Analysis
- DCOT Report
- Option Volatility and Gamma
- Key EIA and CME Dates
DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report Forecast
- via TradersCommunity.com
- Report Date 3/9/21
- Release Time: Wednesday, March 16, 2022, at 9:30 A.M. (ET)
Note in bbls *exp = Reuters poll est adjusted for API shift, except Cushing
- Refinery Utilization +1.1% to 90.40% Exp +0.3%
- Production UNCH to 11,600kbpd (13.10 ATH)
Iran Nuclear Talks Update
The United States two week’s ago said they are waiving sanctions on Iran’s civil nuclear program in a desperate attempt for the Biden administration to secure a return to the 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran. The State Department notified Congress of the waiver Friday. The change in policy would allow other countries to cooperate on certain nonproliferation activities necessary to return to the international nuclear agreement.
“This is not a signal that we are about to reach an understanding on a mutual return to full implementation” of the JCPOA, the Obama-era Iran nuclear agreement, a State Department official told NBC News.
Nuclear talks between world powers are entering their final stretch, with negotiators in Vienna hoping to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA. Iran is said to be just weeks away from being able to produce enough weapons grade material for a nuclear bomb.
Iran’s foreign minister quickly rebuked the move. “The lifting of some sanctions can in itself translate into good faith,” Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said, according to Iranian state media. “But it’s not enough.”
“Iran’s legal right to continue research and development and maintain its peaceful nuclear capabilities and achievements, side by side with its security … cannot be curbed by any agreement,” Ali Shamkhani, Iran’s top security official, tweeted.
US Crude Oil Quick Look
On a 4-week avg basis, @EIAgov continues to peg US oil demand at a record high for this time of the year. The latest data puts demand at 21.64m b/d, highest ever for late January, and the highest in absolute terms since Aug 2019 (Chart is 20 years of seasonal data) via @JavierBlas Bloomberg
via Giovanni Staunovo? @staunovo
via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen
Weekly DoE US Petroleum Storage Report Breakdown
Weekly Storage via DOE
with RonH Data @Ronh and The Fundamental Angle @BrynneKKelly
Via RonH at Ron H Public Tableau Link
The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly
API Crude Oil Inventories
US petroleum (Crude, SPR, oil products) inventories in million barrels (EIA)
Cushing Oil Stocks
Cushing, OK is the hub for the most heavily traded US oil Futures contract – West Intermediate Crude – WTI so for that reason we pay special attention to the storage there.
API Cushing Stocks
Weekly Update via RonH Data @Ronh999
Closer Look at Cushing with DigStic Data @DigStic
US Oil Import Export
US crude imports by origin in kbpd (incl w/w change)
- Canada +527 to 3869
- Mexico +258 to 768
- Saudi Arabia +108 to 358
- Colombia +8 to 332
- Iraq +60 to 285
- Ecuador unchanged at 98 Brazil +68 to 273
- Russia +13 to 106
- Nigeria -157 to 25
- Trinidad and Tobago -71 to 0
US Gasoline Consumers
Input to Refineries
US consumers bought +375.60 million gallons of gasoline per day last week. That is +21.1 mil YoY.
US consumers spent $1,620.9 million dollars per day for gasoline last week. That is +$609.4 mil YoY
US avg retail price for gasoline was $4.315 last week. That is +1.462 YoY.
Baker Hughes Weekly North American Rigs Report
- US Baker Hughes Rig Count 04-Mar: 650 (est 656; prev 650)
- Rotary Gas Rigs: 130 (est 128; prev 127)
- Rotary Oil Rigs: 519 (est 527; prev 522)
US Oil Rigs w/w changes by key shale basins
- Permian +1 to 310
- Eagle Ford unchanged at 45
- Williston unchanged at 33
- Cana Woodford unchanged at 28
- DJ Niobrara unchanged at 14
- Canada averaged 223 active drilling rigs this week according to data from the Canadian Association of Energy Contractors. Of those rigs, 25% are drilling for natural gas, 60% are drilling for oil, 4% for other (helium, hydrogen, geothermal, or potash), and 11% are moving.
- Drilling activity by province is 77% in Alberta, 14% in Saskatchewan, 3% in BC, and 6% elsewhere. Precision Drilling holds the majority of the Canadian market share with 31%, Ensign Drilling with 23%, Savanna Drilling with 10%, and Horizon Drilling with 7%. View a full breakdown of Western Canada’s rig activity. via Camtrader
US oil rigs and frac spread (Baker Hughes/Primary Vision)
International oil rigs ex North America
International oil rigs ex North America remained unchanged at 642 in January
- Colombia +4
- Qatar +3
- Iraq, Brazil, Indonesia +2
- Turkey, Mexico-2
- Oman, Argentina -3 Abu Dhabi -4
US Oil Production
US Oil Field Production UNCH 11.600mbpd Off ATH 13.10mpd
Gulf of Mexico
WTI Crude Oil Futures Technical Analysis
via KnovaWave @KnovaWave
US Crude Oil (WTI)
The backwardation structure of all crude prices steepened in October and the calendar spread between the nearest futures contracts moved into deeper backwardation. This reflected the market perception of stronger market fundamentals in the near-term and lower global crude oil inventory levels. The prospect of higher oil demand during the winter season due to gas to oil switching, amid soaring gas prices in the main trading hubs, and the forecast of slower non-OPEC oil supply growth, have pushed the near-month contract spreads higher compared to later month contracts.
Another big week for oil, after hitting our initial 8/8 target completing either a iii of (5) or (v) of 5 as marked. From there we saw a sharp ABC higher and MM recalculation higher to almost +3/8. We are in a completive mode with this impulse, it’s a question of degree on the topside, use the Murrey math 240/60 grid. On the way up potent WTI price action indicative of 3rd wave energy highlighted by spits of the Tenkan to new highs. Recall prior to this move the completion in 5 waves (iii or i) saw heavy selling with eventual confluence kiss of death with 50dma at the top of the cloud. From there down in 3 waves, completing a C or IV? Support wasn’t found until 0-8. From there we have accelerated higher through the cloud twist. Support Kijun and Tenkan. Closed above 50dma with grid above
The key is crowd behavior to help tell the story which in energy is often around geopolitics. A great example of why we watch ABC corrections and from here we get the energy from the break being balanced. This move that was powered by 50 dma Tenkan spit of a spit – hence the fractal energies reverberations. Support is previous lows, Murrey Math levels and Fib cluster. Support is the 50dma, kijun, tenkan and prev high confluence.
Weekly: WTI crude Oil futures continued higher after corrected the sell off after it’s measured move reversed from 7-year highs and regained them right to the top of the weekly channel with the downside open. Support is the median and Tenkan/Kijun. Long term 61.8% target fueled the spit of a spit by ABC bull flag after rebalanced Chikou sated the 5 waves. Support previous high and Weekly Tenkan & Kijun which closed turning up under the 61.8% to give next impulse clue after holding above 50wma after regaining energy above Tenkan and Kijun. Resistance the Murrey Math levels and previous breaks (off monthly)
These are special times, recall “After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all-time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications.” Above we have Murrey Math time and price
What we broke…….
Crude Oil Futures Commitment of Traders
Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data:
CTFC and ICE open interest:
Money managers increased their net-length in Brent crude oil futures and options by 18,047 contracts to 254,794 in the week ending March 1 Long-only positions rose by 13,6788 Short-only positions fell by by 4,369 other reportables net-length fell by 12,545 – ICE
Money managers increased their net-length in WTI crude oil futures and options by 8,430 contracts to 280,790 in the week ending March 1 Long-only positions rose by 3,836 Short-only positions fell by 4,594 other reportables net-length rose by 20,048 – CFTC
Chart: Crude net-positioning of non-commercial accounts (=managed money and other reportables) in barrels and in US dollars (Brent and WTI futures and options combined) latest value is March 1
COT on energy in wk to Jan 25: Specs cut length in the WTI and Brent crudeoil contracts for the first time in six weeks ahead of $90/b Brent resistance and the FOMC meeting. Overall, the combined net long was cut by 19.5k lots to 540k lots
via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen
Understanding DCOT Reports
Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports – COT, TFF and DCOT to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:
1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables
Crude Oil Option Volatility Watch
Key EIA and CME Dates for WTI Crude Oil
Key EIA and CME Dates For WTI Crude Oil
From The TradersCommunity US Research Desk