Around The Barrel – Large Crude Oil and Distillate Draws as Economies Respond

WTI Oil futures have rallied back from the recent dump. Last week EIA reporting a crude draw -4584Kbbl (incl +1294kbbl build at Cushing). Gasoline stocks drew -719kbbl. Utilization rose +.2% to 89.8%. Production Unchanged at 11,700 kbpd.

Cushing Storage Tanks
Cushing Storage Tanks

DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report

  • via TradersCommunity.com
  • Report Date 12/8/21
  • Release Time: Wednesday, December 15, 2021 at 10:30 A.M. (ET)

Note in bbls *exp = Reuters poll est  adjusted for API shift, except Cushing

 EIAExpPrior API
Crude-4584k-2677k -241k -815k
Cushing+1294k+1987k +2373k +2257k
Gasoline-719k+1803k+3882k+426k
Distillate-2852k-1968k +2733k -1016k
Weekly US Crude Oil Storage Report
  • Refinery Utilization +0.2% to 89.8% Exp +.5%
  • Production  UNCH at 11,700 kbpd (13.10 ATH)

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week (Live Link)

Rig Watch:

  • Total 569 (est 570; prev 563)
  • Rotary Oil Rigs: up 4 to 475 vs 263 a year ago
  • Rotary Gas Rigs: rigs down 1 to 104 vs 81

US Oil Rigs  w/w changes by key shale basins

  • Permian +2 to 288
  • Eagle Ford unchanged at 38
  • Williston unchanged at 27
  • Cana Woodford unchanged at 25
  • DJ Niobrara unchanged at 11

US oil rigs and frac spread (Baker Hughes/Primary Vision)

Image
Permian Basin Rigs

International oil rigs ex North America

+12 m/m to 599 in September

  • Saudi Arabia +4
  • Turkey, Brazil +3
  • Iraq, Algeria +2
  • Kuwait, Indonesia -2
Image

Baker Hughes

US Crude Oil Quick Look

via Giovanni Staunovo? @staunovo

Image

Weekly DOE Petroleum Report in Charts

via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen

Weather Watch

Gulf of Mexico

API Crude Inventories

API Crude Inventories
API Cushing

WTI Crude Oil Futures Technical Analysis via KnovaWave

US Crude Oil (WTI)

The backwardation structure of all crude prices steepened in October and the calendar spread between the nearest futures contracts moved into deeper backwardation. This reflected the market perception of stronger market fundamentals in the near-term and lower global crude oil inventory levels. The prospect of higher oil demand during the winter season due to gas to oil switching, amid soaring gas prices in the main trading hubs, and the forecast of slower non-OPEC oil supply growth, have pushed the near-month contract spreads higher compared to later month contracts.

4 Hour:: WTI oil stayed below the 240 cloud after testing the 50 ma (green). This is a market that is reflective of fear and greed, note the reaction when Kijun and Tenkan cross or touch and Murrey Math confluence. Sell off capitulated to -4/8

Daily: On the way up potent WTI price action indicative of 3rd wave energy highlighted by spits of the Tenkan to new highs. The completion in 5 waves saw heavy selling with eventual confluence kiss of death with 50dma at the top of the cloud. From there down in 3 waves, completing a C or iii? Support wasn’t found until 0-8. Resistance the Tenkan

The key is crowd behavior to help tell the story which in energy is often around geopolitics. A great example of why we watch ABC corrections and from here we get the energy from the break being balanced. This move that was powered by 50 dma Tenkan spit of a spit – hence the fractal energies reverberations. Support is previous lows, Murrey Math levels and Fib cluster. Support is the 50dma, kijun, tenkan and prev high confluence.

Weekly: WTI crude Oil futures continued with it’s measured move then reversed from 7-year highs. Long term 61.8% target fueled by ABC bull flag after rebalanced Chikou sated the 5 waves. Weekly Tenkan & Kijun closed touching to give next impulse clue after closing at 50wma. It must regain energy to complete correction

These are special times, recall “After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications.” Support is previous channels, Tenkan and Kijun. Above we have Murrey Math time and price

WTI D 11 5 2021 Perspective

WTI W 11 5 2021 Fibs


Crude Oil Futures Commitment of Traders

Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data:

CTFC and ICE open interest:

Money managers reduced their net-length in Brent crude oil futures and options by 44,654 contracts to 167,166 in the week ending November 30 Long-only positions fell by 49,454 Short-only positions fell by 4,800 other reportables net-length rose by 8,398 – ICE

Money managers reduced their net-length in WTI crude oil futures and options by 45,171 contracts to 257,631 in the week ending November 30 Long-only positions fell by 25,905 Short-only positions rose by 19,266 other reportables net-length rose by 20,190 – CFTC

Image

Chart: Crude net-positioning of non-commercial accounts (=managed money and other reportables) in barrels and in US dollars (Brent and WTI futures and options combined)latest value is November 30

COT on energy saw selling of #WTI and #Brent extend to to a 4th week. The comb length dropped by 27k lots to 573k, a two month low. With length in all fuel products also reduced, the total 50k lots reduction 819k was the biggest to hit the sector since August.

via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen

Image

Image
Image

Understanding DCOT Reports

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports – COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications: 1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables

Crude Oil Option Volatility Watch via commodityvol.com

Image

NYMEX LO = Crude Oil Options First 3 Months (Live Link)

Image

NYMEX LO & ICE North Sea Brent BRN Crude Oil Options (Live Link)

 

NYMEX LO NYMEX OH NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

Image

NYMEX LO NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

Image

The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

Image
Image

Cushing Oil Stocks

Cushing, OK is the hub for the most heavily traded US oil Futures contract – West Intermediate Crude – WTI so for that reason we pay special attention to the storage there.

Weekly Update via RonH Data ‏@Ronh999

Image
Cushing OK Crude Oil Storage Stocks

Closer Look at Cushing with DigStic Data @DigStic

Weekly DoE US Petroleum Storage Report Breakdown

Weekly Storage via DOE with RonH Data ‏@Ronh999

Image
Image

 NB: Check out Ron’s great work at Ron H Public Tableau Link

US Oil Import Export

Imports

Image

US crude imports by origin in kbpd (incl w/w change)

  • Canada +201 to 3773
  • Mexico +120 to 657
  • Saudi Arabia +51 to 475
  • Colombia +143 to 214
  • Iraq -24 to 221
  • Ecuador -172 to 112
  • Brazil -102 to 142
  • Russia +152 to 189
  • Nigeria -137 to 4
  • Trinidad and Tobago +72 to 72

Exports

Image

US Gasoline Consumers

Input to Refineries

Image

US consumers bought 397.8 million gallons of gasoline per day last week. That is +78.6 mil YoY.

Image

US consumers spent $1,318.8 million dollars per day for gasoline last week. That is +$630.6 mil YoY

Image

 US avg retail price for gasoline was $3.315 last week. That is +$1.157 YoY

Image

US Crude Oil Production

 US Oil Field Production  UNCH 11.700 mbpd Off ATH 13.10mpd

Image

Key EIA and CME Dates For WTI Crude Oil

From The TradersCommunity US Research Desk