Smaller Natural Gas Draw of 183Bcf After Last Week’s Record

Last week we saw the largest natural gas draw ever matching the coldest temperatures ever in some areas. We expect another huge draw this week from the EIA’s weekly natural gas storage report.

Last week we saw the largest natural gas draw ever matching the coldest all time temperatures in some areas. We expect another huge draw this week from the EIA’s weekly natural gas storage report.

Last week’s draw was a record 359 Bcf. With weather voaltility comes basis market natural gas volaltilty especially in the North East. From here weather models are key on the longevity of the cold. Hub prices collapsed to under $2.80 Bcf after the previous week’s smaller expected draw and have risen back to $3.25 Bcf after that rinse.

EIA’s Weekly Gas Storage Report Report Date: 1/11/18

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release TimeThursday January 18 2018 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual  – 183 Bcf  Prior  -359 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  -199 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: -185 to – 207 Bcf
  • EIA swap: 196 to -200 @ CT 15.13

Last Week’s Report -359 Bcf #TCNG

 EIA Storage Report

 

Weather

Commodity Wx Group @commoditywx

Jan 16 – Latest January demand estimate down to 974 national gas-weighted HDDs….still colder than normal, but on the lower end of the cold 2000s cases.

Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model: – 190  Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: – 190 Bcf

“Average population-weighted temperatures increased by double digits in every cell region other than the Pacific Northwest and Southwest, dampening the very large demand gains that had been made the week prior. Demand in the midcon market declined the most week-over -week, almost 9 Bcf/d. The Northeast, Texas and the midcon producing cell regions saw smaller drops of 5.3, 3, and 2.9 Bcf/d, respectively. Week over week, the largest sample decline came from the south-central region, with smaller but also significant declines in sample withdrawals spread across the Midwest, East and Pacific. -Bentek

Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey -202
  • DJ Survey -199
  • Reuters Survey -200
  • Platts Survey -189

Analysts

  • Gabe Harris -185
  • Kidduff Report -207
  • Shura Li – Pira -205
  • Peter Marrin – SNL -202
  • Norse -191
  • Point Logic -197
  • Schneider Electric -188
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville -200
  • Andy Wiessman -192

Banks/Brokers

  • Tim Evans Citigroup -207
  • Macquarie Bank -189
  • Raymond James -199
  • TFS -205

The Fundamental Edge with @BrynneKKelly

It’s never about a single Inventory report.  It’s the accumulation of Inventory reports that expose reality…. @BrynneKKelly

 RONH @Ronh999

Visit : https://public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8870#!/

– Natgasflow into Cheniere’s Sabine Pass facility for Dec 2017 averaged 2.97 Bcf/day. LNG exports out averaged 2.68 Bcf/day. That’s a 9.8% difference for possible inventory change, internal use and loss.

– Natgas feed to Sabine Pass LNG facility for Tue Jan 16 was 3.19 Bcf.

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 2,767 Bcf
  • Storage 2016/Same Week: 3182
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 3149 

Sources: TradersCommunity Research

From the Traders Community News Desk

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