Private payroll company ADP reported that US private sector jobs grew by 145,000 (consensus 205,000) following a revised increase of 261,000 in February (from 242,000). Weak sectors for employment included manufacturing (-30,000), financial activities (-51,000), professional/business services (-46,000), and information (-7,000). The fallout from the financial industry and technology layoffs pressured by rising interest rates and elevated inflation are the main catalysts for weakness. The US Labor Department will report its jobs report on Friday.
ADP US National Employment March 2023
- March ADP national employment plus 145K versus 200 K
- Prior month revised to 261K from 242K
- Small (less than 50 employees) +101K
- Medium firms (500 – 499) +33K
- Large (greater than 499 employees) +10K
- Job stayers 6.9% versus 7.2%
- Job changers 14.2% versus 14.3% last month
The services sector added 75K jobs, led by leisure and hospitality (98K); trade/transportations and utilities (56K); and education/health services (17K), while job losses occurred in financial activities (-51K); professional/business industry (-46K); and information (-7K). Meanwhile, the goods-producing industry added 70K jobs due to construction (53K) and mining (47K) while manufacturing shed 30K jobs.
“Our March payroll data is one of several signals that the economy is slowing,” said Nela Richardson,
chief economist, ADP. “Employers are pulling back from a year of strong hiring and pay growth, after a
three-month plateau, is inching down.”
Total U.S. Nonfarm Private Employment: 145,000
By Company Size
Small establishments: -75,000
o 1-19 employees -70,000
o 20-49 employees -5,000
Medium establishments: 64,000
o 50-249 employees 99,000
o 250-499 employees -35,000
Large establishments: +128,000
o 500+ employees 128,000
“In January, we saw the impact of weather-related disruptions on employment during our reference week. Hiring was stronger during other weeks of the month, in line with the strength we saw late last year.“
Nela Richardson Chief Economist, ADP
Change by Industry Sector
Goods-producing: 70,000
o Natural resources/mining 47,000
o Construction 53,000
o Manufacturing -30,000
Service-providing: 75,000
o Trade/transportation/utilities 56,000
o Information -7,000
o Financial activities -51,000
o Professional/business services -46,000
o Education/health services 17,000
o Leisure/hospitality 98,000
o Other services 8,00
PAY INSIGHTS
Pay gains fell faster in March
Pay growth decelerated for both job stayers and job changers. For job stayers, year-over-year gains fell
to 6.9 percent from 7.2 percent in February. Pay growth for job changers was 14.2 percent, down from
14.4 percent.
Median Change in Annual Pay (ADP matched person sample)
Job-Stayers 6.9%
Job-Changers 14.2%
The ADP count comes two days ahead of the government’s nonfarm payrolls report, which includes government jobs that ADP does not count.
The Fed Chair Powell came out with less hawkish tone as expected at the last FOMC with the banking crisis fallout. Federal Reserve President Powell and other Fed Governors have admitted they are unsure of the path for wages and inflation. The wages data gives us indications of the FOMC plans on rates into 2022.
Estimates for BLS report
The Labor Department is set to release its November jobs report Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here are the main metrics expected:
- Economists forecast the U.S. added jobs last month, down from
- Average hourly earnings gains are expected to hold at
- Headline unemployment rate is forecast to tick lower, to a multi-decade trough of around
About the ADP® National Employment Report™
The ADP® National Employment Report™ is a monthly measure of the change in total U.S. nonfarm private employment derived from actual, anonymous payroll data of client companies served by ADP®, a leading provider of human capital management solutions. The report, which measures nearly 26 million U.S. workers, is produced by the ADP Research Institute®, a specialized group within the company that provides insights around employment trends and workforce strategy, in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics, Inc.
Each month, ADP Research Institute issues the ADP National Employment Report as part of the company’s commitment to adding deeper insights into the U.S. labor market and providing businesses, governments and others with a source of credible and valuable information. The ADP National Employment Report is broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge.
The data for this report is collected for pay periods that can be interpolated to include the week of the 12th of each month and processed with statistical methodologies similar to those used by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to compute employment from its monthly survey of establishments. Due to this processing, this subset is modified to make it indicative of national employment levels; therefore, the resulting employment changes computed for the ADP National Employment Report are not representative of changes in ADP’s total base of U.S. business clients.
Source: ADP, TradersCommunity Data, BLS
From The TradersCommunity News Desk