Author Topic: EIA Reports Weekly - 151 Bcf Draw Natural Gas Storage  (Read 948 times)

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EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report Report Date: 1/12/17

Natural gas has been more of a head scratcher than normal lately, with weather-driven algorithm volatility and last week's 49-Bcf draw way below expectations. This seemed more than the south-central region. One of our favorites Gabe Harris of WoodMac was closest at -58 Bcf. "The large injection was driven by the largest salt dome injection to be recorded for a week ending in December of 19 Bcf.” Bentek offered.

Last week’s weather was 7 percent warmer than last year and 14 percent warmer than the five-year average. Since September, weather has been 7 percent colder than last year but 9 percent warmer than five-year average.

Actual -151 Bcf Prior -49 Bcf
Consensus Forecast  - 139 Bcf
Cons. Range: -127.8 to -160 Bcf
EIA swap: -135 to -136 @ CT 15.13

 




Bentek says that its Flow Model is at 138-Bcf draw this week and the SD Model at -133 Bcf.

Quote
“Inventories seem likely to continue bordering the five-year average line as current supply and demand daily
estimates show an estimated withdrawal of 242 Bcf for the week ending Jan. 12, 72 Bcf stronger than five-year average levels and a withdrawal of 133 Bcf for the next week out, 43 Bcf weaker than the five-year average withdrawal. A withdrawal of 138 Bcf for the current storage week would take reported inventories to 3,173
Bcf, 9 Bcf higher than five-year average levels and 345 Bcf below inventory levels at this time last year.

Week over week, the largest change in storage activity is estimated to have occurred in the EIA south-central region, where a withdrawal of 25 Bcf is expected, compared to a reported injection of 14 Bcf the week prior. “However, the salt dome sample remained at a net injection, measuring 4.6 Bcf of activity compared to 11.3 the week prior, when the EIA announced the facilities had injected 19 Bcf into storage. Non-salt sample activity increased from a net withdrawal of 6.4 Bcf the week prior to a net withdrawal of 13.6 Bcf this week.”

Analysts Forecasts
Tim Evans, CITI Futures: -160 Bcf
Raymond James: -152 Bcf
Donnie Shgarp, Huntsville Utils: -152 Bcf Bcf
Schneider Electric: -150 Bcf
Dow Jones Survey: -145 Bcf
SNL Survey: -145 Bcf
Bentek S/D Model: -133
Robry825: -132 Bcf
Genscape: -129 Bcf
Bloomberg Flow Model: -127.8 Bcf

Natgas storage draw to return to triple digits but to remain below average http://bit.ly/2jFpIML via @SNLEnergy ‏@PeterMarrin



Brynne Kelly @BrynneandRic
Natural Gas Storage Futures weekly EIA storage futures 1/10 (EIA Swap)



Current Storage Level vs. Last Year & 5-Yr

Current Storage Level: 3,311 Bcf
Storage 2015/same week: 3,675
(Delta: -364 Bcf or 9.9%)
Storage 5-Yr Avg/same week: 3,332
(Delta: -21 Bcf or 0.6%)

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Summary

Working gas in storage was 3,160 Bcf as of Friday, January 6, 2017, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 151 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 363 Bcf less than last year at this time and 4 Bcf below the five-year average of 3,164 Bcf. At 3,160 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.



Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2012 through 2016. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.
Markets Claws of Chaos

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Prompt Futures settled at 3.386 +162 with a high of 3.45 after the report
Markets Claws of Chaos

 


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