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1
Breaking News / Oil Exports Higher - EIA Oil Inventories Crude
« on: February 23, 2017, 12:02:24 PM »
Oil exports jump higher to 1,211/day via‏ @Ronh999


2
Breaking News / Refinery Utilization - EIA Oil Inventories
« on: February 23, 2017, 11:59:36 AM »
Refinery utilization for last week was below 4 prior years  via @Ronh999


3


Quote
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending February 17, 2017 
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged about 15.3 million barrels per day during the week ending February 17, 2017, 187,000 barrels per day less than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 84.3% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging over 9.4 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging about 4.5 million barrels per day. 
U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.3 million barrels per day last week, down by 1.2 million barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 8.4 million barrels per day, 7.5% above the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 367,000 barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 129,000 barrels per day last week.   U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 0.6 million barrels from the previous week. At 518.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 2.6 million barrels last week, but are at upper limit of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 4.9 million barrels last week but are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories fell 3.3 million barrels last week but are in the middle of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 11.0 million barrels last week.   
Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 19.8 million barrels per day, up by 0.7% from the same period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.6 million barrels per day, down by 5.2% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged about 4.0 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, up by 14.4% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied is up 2.5% compared to the same four-week period last year.


4
Continental Resources $CLR Earnings

Earnings: 7 cents EPS Loss on revenue of $549.7 million versus analysts expected a loss of 11 cents per share vs. a loss of 23 cents per share in the year ago quarter with revenue up 5.4% to $580.99 million.

Total production fell 6.7% to 209,861 barrels of oil equivalent per day.
STACK production increased 38% to approximately 24,400 barrels of oil equivalent per day, and the company currently has 12 operated rigs there.

Guidance: Continental plans to increase the number of completion crews operating in the Bakken shale formation to eight by mid-May from five now, while maintaining the number of drilling rigs at four through the end of the year.

Reaction: Continental Resources, Inc. NYSE: CLR  Feb 23, 12:13 PM EST 45.66 +0.12 (+0.26%)

Brian Scheid‏@BrianJScheid 

- Continental Resources will increase frack crews in Bakken from 5 to 8 by mid-May, but will keep Bakken rig count at 4 thru 2017
- More than 90% of Continental Resources' Bakken production now delivered by pipeline (~94,000 b/d)

5
Breaking News / EIA Reports Weekly -89 Bcf Draw Natural Gas Storage
« on: February 23, 2017, 06:44:14 AM »
EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report Report Date: 2/23/17
Release Time: Thursday 23 Feb 2017 - 16:30 GMT 10:30 ET

Same channel, Natural gas continued to sell all week to under 2.55 and March April to -.14 as demand collapsed.   Demand continues to suffer on warmer weather the saving grace is LNG exports hum along with Mexico exports steady.  Last week’s 114-Bcf draw from storage was the smallest draw in February, ever. The surprise again was in the the south-central region. At this pace flows will reverse to injection mode around mid-March, and not April the traditional end-of-season mark.

Market Expectations
Actual - 89 Bcf* Prior -114 Bcf*
Consensus Forecast  -84 Bcf
Cons. Range: -77 to -101 Bcf
EIA swap: -84 to -85 @ CT 15.13
Last Week's Report -87 Bcf #TCNG
 



Bentek
Quote
Bentek Flow Model settled at -84 Bcf and the S/D Model at 85 Bcf. It was warm last week folks. “The largest week-on-week changes in storage activity are estimated to have occurred in the Midwest and south-central storage regions. In the Midwest, sample withdrawal activity fell by 10.2 Bcf, compared to the previous week with over half of the decline coming from the ANR and NGPL systems, which withdrew 4.8 and 2.9 Bcf less than the previous week, respectively, as demand in the region fell significantly, by an average 3.4 Bcf/d in the midcon market cell region. In the south-central region, which surprised with a much smaller than anticipated withdrawal last week, sample withdrawal activity decreased by 11.6 Bcf with most of the decrease being accounted for by the nonsalt facility sample and the NNG and SSC systems in particular,”

Analysts Forecasts

Gabe Harris, WoodMac: -101 Bcf
Andy Weissman, EBW: -100 Bcf
GWDD Model: -96 Bcf
UBS: -95 Bcf
Bloomberg Flow Model: -92 Bcf
Robry825: -79 Bcf
Schneider Electric: -79 Bcf
Charlie Fenner,  Macquarie: -79 Bcf
Reza Haidari, TR Analytics: -77 Bcf

Brynne Kelly @BrynneandRic
Natural Gas Storage Futures weekly EIA storage futures 2/22 (EIA Swap)


Peter Marrin ‏@PeterMarrin 


Current Storage Level vs. Last Year & 5-Yr
Current Storage Level: 2,445 Bcf
Storage 2016/Same Week: 2,748

More Energy News

EIA Oil Inventories +9527K Crude Build +2846K Gasoline Build
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report February 2017
Devon Energy $DVN Earnings Beat on EPS and Revenue
Diamondback Energy $FANG Earnings Beat EPS, Revenue
Power Demand Losses see Heating and Cooling Company Watsco $WSO Miss Earnings
Permian Producer Pioneer Natural Resources PXD Gives us Look at Shale
BP Misses Earnings Targets, DeepWater Horizon Weighs
Diamond Offshore Drilling $DO Earnings Beat, Concern Over Oil Price
Atwood Oceanics $ATW Misses on Earnings, Slight Beat on Revenue
Phillips 66 PSX Misses Earnings on Falling Refinery Margins
Weatherford $WFT Reports Smaller Loss, Up 5% on Improved Liquidity
Valero $VLO Earnings Beat Estimates
Marathon Petroleum $MPC Beats on Earnings, Accelerates Speedway Review
Anadarko $APC Earnings Misses, Beats on Revenue
Positive Energy Correlation with Mexico, Texas and Canada
Australia LNG Exports Surge to Hit $1.9 Billion Record
Exxon Mobil $XOM Earnings Miss on Dry Gas Impairment Charge
Chevron $CVX Earnings Disappoint, Downstream down 65%
Aluminum Maker Alcoa $AA Miss on EPS But Higher Volume & Revenue
Halliburton $HAL Earnings Mixed as International Revenue Lower
Weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage -119 Bcf #TCNG
Shale Fracking Firm Keane Group's $FRAC First IPO in 2017
Japan Ties Up 25 Year Extension on Abu Dhabi Oil Concessions
CONSOL Energy $CNX Earnings Miss, Loses $237 million on Hedges Shares down 8.5%
Royal Dutch Shell $RDS.A Weaker Earnings on Refining Margins, Production Higher
ConocoPhillips $COP First Revenue Gain Since 2014, Increased CapEX
General Electric $GE Earnings Miss on Weak Oil & Gas Revenue
Schlumberger $SLB Earnings Show Strong MidEast & North America Activity
Commodities Position Limits Mandate Scrapped by US House
Another Milestone for Iran Oil, Vitol does $1 Bln Pre-Finance Deal
Which Company Will Russia Oil Production Cuts Come From?

Further Crude Oil Analysis
#OOTTNews .

From the Traders Community News Desk

6
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data for the week ended February 17, 2017

DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report Date: 2/17/17
Release Time: Thursday 23 Feb 2017 - 17:00 GMT 11:00 ET


Market Expectations
Crude +564K vs exp Build+3300k Prior +9527K API   -880k
Cushing vs exp Draw-1943k Prior -702k API -1730k
Gasoline -2628K vs exp Draw -1600k Prior  +2846K API -823k
Distillate -4924K vs exp Draw -1100k Prior-689K API -4230k
Refinery utilization  exp -1.1 exp -0.1
Weekly production +0.3%  to 9,001,000 bpd from 8,977,000
Imports -1390k
Note in bbls *exp = Reuters poll est except Cushing

View Prev Week Report & Analysis.
 


DOE Estimates via @EnergyBasis

NB: Based off of 11-Yr Avg Distillate stocks draw, then build through the beginning of January also "Historically" #Gasoline stocks build now through end of February

EnergyBasis @EnergyBasis
11-Yr Avg (in mbbls) for Week Ending February 17, 2017
Crude +1.72
Gasoline -1.59
Distillate -1.07

EIA Prep via @DigStic



API via Marketwatch

Ahead of API crude oil futures settle at $53.59/bbl⬇- $0.74. -1.36%. $CL_J7 volume: ~547k

Quote
The American Petroleum Institute late Wednesday reported a 884,000 barrel decline in U.S. crude supplies for the week ended Feb. 17, according to sources. Analysts and traders polled by The Wall Street Journal expected a consensus gain of 3.4 million barrels. API also reported a decline of 893,000 barrels of gasoline and a 4.3 million barrel decline in distillates. Analysts expected a decline in gasoline stockpiles of 1.2 million barrels and a decline of distillates of 400,000 barrels. The API report precedes the more closely watched Energy Information Administration report on Thursday. After the report, crude oil for April CLJ7, +1.44% delivery rose to $53.90 a barrel in electronic trading, following a day in which crude futures snapped a three-session winning streak to settle at $53.59 a barrel.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/api-reports-inventory-declines-in-crude-oil-gasoline-sources-2017-02-22


** Note with the unreliability of the API numbers highlighted by its constant debacles we offer you the bare bones of that report.


More Energy News

CONSOL Energy $CNX Earnings Miss, Loses $237 million on Hedges Shares down 8.5%
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO ) Q4 Earnings Above Estimates
Positive Energy Correlation with Mexico, Texas and Canada
Australia LNG Exports Surge to Hit $1.9 Billion Record
What to Expect From Anadarko $APC Earnings This Week   
Exxon Mobil $XOM Earnings Miss on Dry Gas Impairment Charge
Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) Earnings Preview
ConocoPhillips (COP) Earnings Preview
Chevron $CVX Earnings Disappoint, Downstream down 65%
Busy Aerospace and Defense Earnings Out; $LMT $BA $RTN $NOC $TXT $GD
Aluminum Maker Alcoa $AA Miss on EPS But Higher Volume & Revenue
Halliburton $HAL Earnings Mixed as International Revenue Lower
Weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage -119 Bcf #TCNG
What to Expect From ECB Meeting & Draghi Ahead of President Trump
Last FOMC Beige Book & Yellen Speech Before President Trump l
What to Expect From Schlumberger $SLB Earnings Friday
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report January 2017
Shale Fracking Firm Keane Group's $FRAC First IPO in 2017
Japan Ties Up 25 Year Extension on Abu Dhabi Oil Concessions
Commodities Position Limits Mandate Scrapped by US House
Another Milestone for Iran Oil, Vitol does $1 Bln Pre-Finance Deal
Which Company Will Russia Oil Production Cuts Come From?
Nigeria Awards 39 Oil Contracts
US Oil Rigs Continue to Rise Add 2 to 525 for 9th Week says Baker Hughes

Check out OOTTNews.com for the latest news and data on oil markets.

From TradersCommunity Research

7
Fed / FOMC Minutes From Jan 31 & Feb 1 Meeting
« on: February 22, 2017, 01:04:52 PM »
FOMC Minutes: Jan 31 & Feb 1 meeting which Fed left rates unchanged at the meeting after hiking in December

Highlights

Many Fed voters saw only a modest risk of significant inflation
Many participants thought a rate increase might be appropriate 'fairly soon'
Voters judged Fed would have 'ample time' to respond if inflation emerged
Generally agreed on need to begin discussions on balance sheet reinvestment
Several officials saw downside economic risks associated with possible appreciation of dollar
Officials saw increasing upside risks to economy
Voters agreed that even with uncertainty over govt policies, near-term risks roughly balanced

8
Breaking News / Federal Reserve Harker Economic Outlook
« on: February 21, 2017, 11:44:36 AM »
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick T. Harker at the The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania

An Economic Outlook
February 21, 2017, Philadelphia, PA
 
Strong consumer spending should lead to 2% GDP growth this year
Labor market is 'more or less' at full capacity
Starting to see inflation expectations near 2%
Still sees room for wages to move higher

Labor market

We started off the year with a strong labor market. We added 227,000 jobs in January, and the unemployment rate stands at 4.8 percent, which is at or below my estimate of the natural rate of unemployment. That’s a slight uptick from December, but it reflects more people coming off the sidelines and back into the labor force. So in this case, it’s a positive outcome.

U6 unemployment is 9.4 percent. While that’s still higher than I’d like, it’s a far cry from the bad old days of the recession and its aftermath when U6 reached a peak of about 17 percent.

Quits are still high, layoffs remain low, and job postings are near historical peaks. My business contacts continue to tell me that finding workers, especially in certain occupations, is getting more and more difficult.

Taking that all into account, the labor market continues to tighten. And I see it as more or less back to full health.

Whenever I talk about the labor market, I’m always careful to point out that just because things are good — or even healthy — doesn’t mean they’re perfect. There continue to be pockets in the country — both geographically and demographically — that aren’t feeling the relief. We have a lot of them in the Fed’s Third District: post-industrial towns, rural areas, and the urban landscape. Philadelphia is the poorest of the 10 biggest cities in America, and Camden has, at various times, been called the poorest city in America period. Among different segments of the population, the unemployment rate for African American men remains at 8.0 percent, significantly higher than the national average.

We need to pay special attention to the regions and demographic groups that have been left behind. The Fed can help to some extent through our community development work, which focuses on strengthening local economies. But for the most part, monetary policy doesn’t have the scope or tools to address these issues head on. That takes legislative action.

And while I’m relatively upbeat about employment, there’s still room for wage growth to move up. While the continued improvement in the labor market has moved the needle on wage growth — as of January, the year-over-year growth was about 2.5 percent — previous expansions have seen sustained growth of above 3 percent. That’s what we expect in a robust economy.

Inflation

Moving on to inflation, we’re seeing positive upward movement, although PCE remains below our 2 percent target. Headline and core PCE closed out last year at 1.6 and 1.7 percent, respectively. That’s a world of improvement over the end of 2015, when they were at 0.6 and 1.4 percent.

We do have January numbers for CPI inflation, with headline CPI rising a remarkable 0.6 percent, driven largely by an increase in gas prices. That brings the year-over-year change to 2.5 percent. Core CPI rose 0.3 percent, bringing that year-over-year change to above 2 percent.

I should note that inflation as measured by CPI is often higher than PCE. That said, it still indicates an overall upward movement, and I see us reaching our 2 percent target on PCE sometime this year or next.

Another positive indicator is that we’re starting to see inflation expectations rally around the 2 percent goal.

Growth

Turning to growth, real GDP increased 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016. A substantial drag from net exports slowed growth there. While real GDP growth was stronger in the second half of 2016 — after it grew by 3.5 percent in the third quarter — we’re really looking at moderate growth overall, averaging just under 2 percent. The Philadelphia Fed’s Survey of Professional Forecasters points to 2.2 percent growth in the current quarter.

Retail sales have been strong, rising 0.4 percent in January. In fact, we’ve seen a rapid acceleration in retail sales since the middle of last year. And consumer confidence has continued the upward trend it started in 2016, carrying into this year.

Overall, I see strong consumer spending driving growth of about 2 percent over the course of the year. And that 2 percent growth is more or less what we should consider normal for the medium term.

Monetary policy

So, what does all this mean for monetary policy? Given the state of the economy — more or less back to normal — I continue to see three modest rate hikes of 25 basis points each as appropriate for 2017, assuming things stay on track.

I’ve said it before and I don’t mind repeating myself: Monetary policy is a fairly limited tool that is fairly limited in its scope. A lot of people would like to see growth above our 2 percent projection, but that’s not really up to Fed officials. That’s the kind of policy that’s outside our purview.

If we really want to move the needle, we need to invest in physical and human capital.

Student loans

And that’s where I come to the subject of student loans.

I should mention that different Federal Reserve Banks have different areas of research focus. Dallas, as you might imagine, spends a lot of time looking at energy markets. In Philadelphia, we’re the System leaders in research on consumer credit and finance. So, we have a lot of expertise in this area.

There’s no question that investing in the education of our citizens is essential for growth and is the core of our economic future. We’re talking about the engine of the American economy: The men and women who will be creating the next miracle drug, inventing the next radical technological innovation, writing the next wave of legislation.

But there’s an all-too-familiar problem that can act as a barrier to people getting the education they need.

To steal a line from John Oliver, if you went to college in America, chances are you have two things: Bob Marley’s greatest hits and student debt.

The headlines you’ve heard before, and they’re fairly staggering:

The number of people with student debt doubled between 2000 and 2014, for a total of about 42 million. Aggregate student loan debt in the U.S. is currently nearly $1.3 trillion.1

The average student loan borrower has about $31,000 in outstanding balances, whereas the typical American borrower owes over $16,000.2

And 11 percent of balances are past due, compared with 8 percent 10 years ago. It should be noted, however, that the delinquencies have been coming down since the peak of 12 percent in 2012.3

That’s the data we’re used to hearing, and that’s what most of the conversation is about, for good reason.

But there are more data and some nuances to the numbers that bear investigating. Because if we’re going to reach policy conclusions — and for the record, I’m not going to reach any policy conclusions because that’s not my job — we should dig a little deeper.

First and foremost, defaults on smaller loans are actually more common than on big ones.

There are a number of factors that play into this, but there are some trends that emerge.

Larger loans tend be taken on by people attending four-year institutions, and those students tend to complete school at a higher rate. They may have more debt when they graduate, but graduating makes them more likely to find a job and a better paying one at that. So, those students tend to be in a better position to repay loans.

Students at for-profit colleges or two-year programs are generally in school for shorter periods of time, which is part of the reason the amounts are smaller. However, a significant portion of these students are unlikely to finish their degree or certificate. And people who don’t complete their programs are more likely to default.

This is largely because they struggle to find jobs that pay enough to both repay loans and cover the general cost of living. That was made exponentially worse by the recession and the attendant weak labor market.

In 2013, for instance, the unemployment rate for borrowers who were recent graduates of four-year, public, and nonprofit institutions was 7.7 — only a little higher than the overall average unemployment rate for that year.

By contrast, recent graduates of two-year colleges had an unemployment rate of 16.9 percent. More alarmingly, those who went to for-profit schools had an unemployment rate of 20.6 percent.4 To put that in perspective, we would literally have to go back to the Great Depression to get a national level of unemployment that high.

The recession was also marked by a dramatic increase in attendance at two-year and for-profit colleges. These schools accounted for roughly half of the increase in student debt between 2009 and 2011. This increase was part of a longer-term trend that highlights a lot of the data I’ve just talked about. From 2003 to 2013, over 30 percent of the increase in student debt was taken on by students from those institutions.5

What does this tell us, and why does this matter?

I’m not ignoring the issues facing students who graduated on time from four-year institutions and found good jobs when they left. Being in a better state than their counterparts doesn’t lessen the blow of a few decades of paying off loans. And it still has implications for the broader economy: Millennials are now technically a larger generation than the baby boomers, and owing money affects the way they live and participate in the economy. There’s a good amount of research that links student debt to younger adults being unable to move out on their own. Some of it finds a big enough effect to impact the housing market.

But we should also look at the way the segmentation of the student debt market impacts the way we view the issue, and, more broadly, how we approach policy.

Fundamentally, this is a question of how we look at skills, the labor force, and the ways in which we prepare people for professional success.

I’m always careful to avoid wading into debates about how elected officials should make policy. There are larger questions about the allocation of funds at the local, state, and federal levels that I’m going to sidestep.

What I can address is some of the data and research.

I’m frequently amazed at the simplicity of programs that have demonstrable effects. Case in point, there is evidence to suggest that by simply offering high school students more intensive, personalized information about college options, they make better, more successful choices.6

Likewise, a more flexible approach to repayment can keep people from winding up in a debt cycle that can permanently affect their credit.

At the moment, student debt holders have the option of programs that protect them from spending more than 10 percent of their income on repayment. But they have to reapply annually, filling out the kind of complex sets of forms that bureaucracy is famous for. And eligibility is based on the previous year’s income, which means if you lose your job, you won’t be off the hook for payments for quite a while. The complexity — and probably the frustration — of the process keeps a lot of people out of the process who could use the help.7

One possible solution can be found in our counterparts overseas. Repayments are automatically linked to income through the tax systems in countries like Australia, the UK, New Zealand, and others. In addition to the relief it gives people paying off student loans, it reduces the dreaded reams of paperwork.

Another issue altogether is thinking about how we address tertiary education on a societal level. When my parents were growing up, all you needed for a good job was a high school diploma. That was still true for some of my generation, but that necessity quickly turned to being a college degree. I bet a lot of you and your friends feel that you won’t be competitive in the marketplace without a master’s.

The thing is we don’t all need or want the same educational track. A traditional four-year degree is great for some people. Ditto a post-graduate degree.

For others, it’s not necessarily the right path. And we should stop making people feel as though they all need to fit into the same mold.

One of our research areas at the Philadelphia Fed is skills training and alternative routes to education and professional readiness.

The data show a skills gap. I hear it all the time from my business contacts: They have the jobs — they just don’t have the people to fill them because they don’t have the right training.

My staff recently conducted a study on what they call “opportunity occupations.” These are jobs that pay at or above the national median income but don’t require a traditional four-year degree. They make up close to 30 percent of the job market nationally.

If we reconsider the way we train people, especially for occupations that require special skills, we can start to maximize the potential of our workforce.

I saw this in action when I visited the Academies at Roxborough High School with my Community Development staff. This is a program that trains high school students to be career ready when they graduate, so they can make the move into jobs that will pay them a good wage. Some of them will go on to traditional four-year programs, some will get further technical or vocational training, some will start their career path right out of the gate. But they’ll all have the opportunity to make a living while they’re pursuing either more education or moving along their professional pathway or both.

If we approach education and the needs of the workforce from a different angle, we can save a lot of the heaviest-hit students a world of debt hurt.

Conclusion

I can’t formulate education policy, or allocate funds, or even make my own children study what I want them to — although, of course, I’m immensely proud of them and they’ve made excellent choices without listening to me.

But I can point to the research and what the data say. Changing our approach to how we invest in education and training won’t take care of the entire student debt issue, but it can help those who are disproportionately affected by it.

9
Highlights:

Europe doesn't seem to mind running too big to fail banks
They are happy to bail them out every 20 years or so
They are national champions at running too big to fail banks
The amount of workers returning to the workforce has been a big surprise
Is cautiously optimistic that there is still some more room in the labor market
Hope wages continue to climb           

10
Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari at a Q&A event, addressing market and banking risks

- Dodd Frank hasn't solved too big to fail
- If there was another crisis, tax payers would still have to bail out the banks
- Stock market crash wouldn't have the same effect as a housing market crash
- The fed's balance sheet will be reduced in the not too distant future
- Balance sheet will probably stay higher than previously due to nature of economy now

LiveStream: https://www.minneapolisfed.org/livestream-of-qa-with-neel-kashkari


 

Have a Plan
Back in November Kashkari unveiled a plan to prevent future government bailouts by forcing the largest U.S. banks to hold so much capital that they would probably decide to break up into smaller parts. Kashkari's plan would also penalize large asset managers, with the idea that so-called "shadow banks" can create systemic risks similar to that of big lenders.

Quote
"We expect that institutions whose size doesn't meaningfully benefit their customers will be forced to break themselves up," I believe the biggest banks are still TBTF and continue to pose a significant, ongoing risk to our economy," Kashkari said during a speech at the Economic Club of New York in November.

Kashkari has made "too big to fail" his signature issue since being appointed head of the Minneapolis Fed last January. He has held symposiums on the topic to get views from policymakers, academics and industry leaders about the best way to prevent future bailouts.

He is aformer Goldman Sachs  banker who administered the U.S. Treasury Department's bailout program during the financial crisis that erupted in 2008, Kashkari has positioned himself as a reformed Wall Street banker who knows best how to fix the problem. He also ran for governor in California in 2014, but has declined to comment on future political ambitions.

Dodd-Frank advocates have argued that existing regulations already prevent future bank bailouts. Capital and liquidity requirements are now much higher, leverage has come down, and big banks are required to undergo annual stress tests and maintain plans for how they would wind themselves down in the event of a failure. But the Minneapolis Fed proposal argues there is still a 67 percent chance of bailouts happening again over the next century. Kashkari's plan would reduce the likelihood to roughly 9 percent, according to the proposal.

A group of so-called "shadow banks," with more than $50 billion in assets, like Blackrock Inc (BLK.N) would face a tax of at least 1.2 percent on their debt.

The Treasury would play a role in implementing the rule. If a bank or fund is above the asset threshold but the Treasury Secretary does not certify that it is not "systemically important," it would face even tougher requirements.

However, banks with less than $10 billion in assets would see looser regulations, since they do not pose a threat to the U.S. economy, Kashkari said. Insurers would also escape the rule because their funding model is different.

Kashkari said he was "sympathetic" to the idea of loosening other regulations on banks if his plan is implemented.


Energy Earnings News

Permian Producer Pioneer Natural Resources PXD Gives us Look at Shale
BP Misses Earnings Targets, DeepWater Horizon Weighs
What to Expect From Diamond Offshore Drilling $DO Earnings This Week
Atwood Oceanics $ATW Misses on Earnings, Slight Beat on Revenue
Phillips 66 PSX Misses Earnings on Falling Refinery Margins
Weatherford $WFT Reports Smaller Loss, Up 5% on Improved Liquidity
Valero $VLO Earnings Beat Estimates
Marathon Petroleum $MPC Beats on Earnings, Accelerates Speedway Review
Anadarko $APC Earnings Misses, Beats on Revenue
CONSOL Energy $CNX Earnings Miss, Loses $237 million on Hedges Shares down 8.5%
Exxon Mobil $XOM Earnings Miss on Dry Gas Impairment Charge
Royal Dutch Shell $RDS.A Weaker Earnings on Refining Margins, Production Higher
ConocoPhillips $COP First Revenue Gain Since 2014, Increased CapEX
Chevron $CVX Earnings Disappoint, Downstream down 65%
Busy Aerospace and Defense Earnings Out; $LMT $BA $RTN $NOC $TXT $GD
Aluminum Maker Alcoa $AA Miss on EPS But Higher Volume & Revenue
Halliburton $HAL Earnings Mixed as International Revenue Lower
General Electric $GE Earnings Miss on Weak Oil & Gas Revenue
Schlumberger $SLB Earnings Show Strong MidEast & North America Activity
Union Pacific Railways Shares Rally On Earnings & Optimistic Guidance
Delta Airlines Upbeat on Outlook But Cautions on Rising Fuel Costs
MSC Industrial Direct $MSM Shares up 6% After Earnings Guidance
Iconic WD-40 $WDFC Earnings Miss Expectations, Shares Slip 6 percent 

Trade Smart

KnovaWave

11
WTI oil traded in a $1.27-a-barrel band this week -- the narrowest weekly range in 13 years via @GotSanctuary


12
S&P Global Platts said on Monday as expected it would add Norway's Troll to the basket of four British and Norwegian crude grades which it already uses to assess dated Brent from Jan 1. 2018. Troll will add about 200,000 barrels per day, or 20 percent, to the basket of crude supplies underpinning the benchmark, Platts said.

Troll will join Brent, Forties, Oseberg and Ekofisk, or BFOE as they are known.

Troll has a typical gravity of 35.9 API degrees, sulfur of 0.19% wt and a total acid number of 0.70 mgKOH/g)

This is the first major overhaul of its Brent oil price assessment in a decade. The last change to the dated Brent benchmark was in 2007 when Platts added Ekofisk, a light, sweet crude. Oseberg and Forties were added in 2002. The action is to address falling supplies of the crude oil grades underpinning the benchmark.



Quote
"Overall we have had significant support for the addition of a new grade to the basket. Far and away, Troll has received the most support."Jonty Rushforth, global editorial director for S&P Platts Global's oil and shipping price group.

Platts announced the decision at its conference held a day before the start of the Energy Institute's IP Week, an annual gathering of the oil trading industry in London.

Troll

Troll is a light, sweet crude, is operated by Norwegian state producer Statoil, which also contributes to the Oseberg, Statfjord, Gullfaks, Grane and Asgard streams. Statoil on Monday said it supported the move.

Quote
"We are pleased that Platts now has announced that Troll will be included," Statoil spokeswoman Elin Isaksen said in an email. "Troll will produce both oil and gas for a long time yet," she said in a separate email.

Quote
"There is of course interest from the market in the ownership structure of the basket," Rushforth said at a media briefing. "It does mean that Statoil has a larger share than Shell and Total. No single company would own more than a quarter of total production in the new basket"

Supply of the current four BFOE grades is normally around 1 million bpd, equal to just over 1 percent of world output.

In an earlier move to boost liquidity, Platts began to apply quality premiums to two better-quality crudes;  Oseberg and Ekofisk to encourage delivery of these into contracts. There are no plans yet to apply one to Troll, said Platts, which will be sticking with the BFOE name.

S&P GLOBAL PLATTS TO INCLUDE NORWAY'S TROLL IN DATED BRENT, BFOE ASSESSMENTS FROM 2018
http://www.platts.com/videos/2017/february/platts-dated-brent-troll-assessment-022017

Source; ICE, Platts, Thomson Reuters

13
Even though they're the highest on record, they're inline with seasonality & only 0.370 mbbls Y/Y for this week @EnergyBasis


14
Breaking News / Gasoline Stocks & Demand - EIA Oil Inventories #TCOIL
« on: February 17, 2017, 02:07:43 PM »
Gasoline demand fell by -0.508 mbpd to 8.433 mbpd, demand is currently -0.77 mbpd lower YOY. @EnergyBasis



Gasoline stocks rose by 2.846 mbbls to 259.06 mbbls, stocks are currently 0.370 mbbls higher YOY. @EnergyBasis


15
Breaking News / Re: EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage -114Bcf #TCNG
« on: February 16, 2017, 02:59:25 PM »
March settled  2.854 on the day - right under @knovawave median

16
Earnings Calendar Q4 2016 / AVOn $AVP Earnings To Watch Feb 16 2017
« on: February 16, 2017, 12:35:12 PM »
Avon Misses:

AVP posted narrower 4Q16 net loss of $10.7MM, or $0.04 per share, compared to $333.4MM, or $0.76 per share in 4Q15. Impact of the devaluation in Egypt on working capital balances had a negative $0.04 impact on EPS. Revenue declined 2% YoY to $1.6Bil. Excluding items, $AVP earned $0.01 per share.

During 4Q16, $AVP's revenue in Europe, Middle Easy & Africa dropped 3% in constant dollars, mainly hurt due to decline in Active Representatives and average order. South Latin America revenues was up 6% in constant dollars, helped by higher average order.

Ding Dong Avon Calling $AVP -16.72% @GotSanctuary


17
Breaking News / EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage -114Bcf #TCNG
« on: February 15, 2017, 02:04:33 PM »
EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report Report Date: 2/16/17
Release Time: Thursday 16 Feb 2017 - 16:30 GMT 10:30 ET

Natural gas continued to sell all week to under 2.90 and March April to -.11 as demand collapsed. It appears the norm is EIA has been higher than market expectations all year.  Demand continues to suffer on warmer weather the saving grace is LNG exports hum along with Mexico exports steady.  Last week's draw of 147 increased storage deficit relative to last year by around 313 Bcf with a surplus relative to five-year average just under 50 Bcf. Week on week, demand dropped nearly 3 Bcf/d, the bulk of which was across residential, commercial and industrial sectors. Since September, weather has been in-line with last year’s unusually warm Winter and 10 percent warmer than the five-year average.

Market Expectations
Actual -114 Bcf* Prior -147 Bcf*
Consensus Forecast  -124 Bcf
Cons. Range: -116 to -133 Bcf
EIA swap: -124 to -125 @ CT 15.13
Last Week's Report -87 Bcf #TCNG
 

* Reclassifications from working gas to base gas resulted in decreased working gas stocks of approximately 5 Bcf in the Pacific region for the week ending February 3, 2017. The implied flow for the week is a decrease of 147 Bcf to working gas stocks. The reclassification from -152 happened in the Pacific region, where a shift of that size is significant indeed.



Bentek

Quote
Bentek S/D Model is 131-Bcf pull while the Flow Model is far lower at -121 Bcf. “Week on week, US demand is estimated to have dropped by approximately 2.7 Bcf/d. LNG feed gas also ticked higher on the week, totaling 2.4 Bcf higher compared to the Feb. 2 storage week. Overall, temperatures over most of the country, excluding the midcontinent, were warmer to significantly warmer than the previous week’s temperatures with the major rescomm
demand center of the Northeast cell region averaging 2.1 degrees Fahrenheit higher at 4.1 degrees F above normal.
The largest week on week change from last week’s EIA reported values, compared to this week’s Bentek forecasts, is expected to  have taken place in the East and Midwest regions due to the substantially lower demand.

However, if last week’s 5 Bcf reclassification from working gas to base gas is taken into consideration, as is done with
the EIA’s “net-change” measure, the Pacific region is expected to report a withdrawal 11 Bcf lower than last week, though only 8 Bcf was actually withdrawn from storage during the Feb. 3 storage week. Sample activity in every EIA region except for south-central region showed a smaller net withdrawal compared to the previous week.

Analysts Forecasts

Bloomberg S/D Model: -133 Bcf
TFS: -131 Bcf
Bentek S/D Model: -131 Bcf
UBS: -130 Bcf
Andy Weissman, EBW: -129 Bcf
Kilduff Report: -129 Bcf
Reza Haidari, TR Analytics: -119 Bcf
Robry825: -119 Bcf
Gabe Harris, WoodMac: -119 Bcf
Bloomberg Flow Model: -116 Bcf
Raymond James: -116 Bcf

Brynne Kelly @BrynneandRic
Natural Gas Storage Futures weekly EIA storage futures 2/14 (EIA Swap)


Peter Marrin ‏@PeterMarrin 

.@SNLEnergy survey points to 126-Bcf #natgas storage withdrawal, which could be the last triple-digit draw of season http://bit.ly/2lS91eM



Current Storage Level vs. Last Year & 5-Yr
Current Storage Level: 2,559 Bcf
Storage 2016/Same Week: 2,884

More Energy News

EIA Oil Inventories +9527K Crude Build +2846K Gasoline Build
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report February 2017
Devon Energy $DVN Earnings Beat on EPS and Revenue
Diamondback Energy $FANG Earnings Beat EPS, Revenue
Power Demand Losses see Heating and Cooling Company Watsco $WSO Miss Earnings
Permian Producer Pioneer Natural Resources PXD Gives us Look at Shale
BP Misses Earnings Targets, DeepWater Horizon Weighs
Diamond Offshore Drilling $DO Earnings Beat, Concern Over Oil Price
Atwood Oceanics $ATW Misses on Earnings, Slight Beat on Revenue
Phillips 66 PSX Misses Earnings on Falling Refinery Margins
Weatherford $WFT Reports Smaller Loss, Up 5% on Improved Liquidity
Valero $VLO Earnings Beat Estimates
Marathon Petroleum $MPC Beats on Earnings, Accelerates Speedway Review
Anadarko $APC Earnings Misses, Beats on Revenue
Positive Energy Correlation with Mexico, Texas and Canada
Australia LNG Exports Surge to Hit $1.9 Billion Record
Exxon Mobil $XOM Earnings Miss on Dry Gas Impairment Charge
Chevron $CVX Earnings Disappoint, Downstream down 65%
Aluminum Maker Alcoa $AA Miss on EPS But Higher Volume & Revenue
Halliburton $HAL Earnings Mixed as International Revenue Lower
Weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage -119 Bcf #TCNG
Shale Fracking Firm Keane Group's $FRAC First IPO in 2017
Japan Ties Up 25 Year Extension on Abu Dhabi Oil Concessions
CONSOL Energy $CNX Earnings Miss, Loses $237 million on Hedges Shares down 8.5%
Royal Dutch Shell $RDS.A Weaker Earnings on Refining Margins, Production Higher
ConocoPhillips $COP First Revenue Gain Since 2014, Increased CapEX
General Electric $GE Earnings Miss on Weak Oil & Gas Revenue
Schlumberger $SLB Earnings Show Strong MidEast & North America Activity
Commodities Position Limits Mandate Scrapped by US House
Another Milestone for Iran Oil, Vitol does $1 Bln Pre-Finance Deal
Which Company Will Russia Oil Production Cuts Come From?

Further Crude Oil Analysis
#OOTTNews .

From the Traders Community News Desk

18
Fed / Federal Reserve Bullard Talking Fed and Admin
« on: February 15, 2017, 12:51:50 PM »
Fed's Bullard on Fox Business

Economy is doing well, helped by Fed policy
Thinks Fed and administration will get along
Bullard talking about another hike.

19
Fed / Federal Reserve Harker Comments on Inflation & Workforce
« on: February 15, 2017, 12:49:40 PM »
Fed's Harker:

Inflation hitting Fed goal late this year or in 2018
US economy more or less back to full health
Forecasts 2017 GDP 'a touch above 2%
Concerned that more 25-54 year old men out of workforce

20
Fed / Federal Reserve Rosengren Follows Yellen with Hawkish Comments
« on: February 15, 2017, 12:47:26 PM »
More Fed Speakers today after Yellen testifies:

Fed's Rosengren: 

May need to hike rates more aggressively.  Greater than 3 times per year is possible
Expects rate hikes at least as quickly as median Fed forecast
Expects more than 2% real GDP growth over the next 2 years
Very limited slack in labor market
Delaying tightenings risks overshooting employment/inflation goals
Signifcant risk including fiscal policy and overseas economies.

Remember he is a non-voting member in 2017.

21
Fed / Re: Federal Reserve Yellen Humphrey Hawkins Monetary Policy Day 2
« on: February 15, 2017, 11:52:50 AM »
Yellen speaks to the House Financial Services Committee in her second day of Humphrey Hawkins testimony

021517 -- “Monetary Policy and the State of the Economy” (EventID=105590)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YEl6pZwApWM

Yellen Comments:

Economic performance has been quite disappointing
We're quite close I would say to achieving our labor market objectives
Productivity growth has been very disappointing
We're quite close to achieving our goals
Expect to continue removing monetary policy accommodation by raising short term rates
Start of shrinking balance sheet will depend on economy
Fed will discuss reinvestment policy in greater detail
Labor market 'essentially' where it needs to be
I look forward to a strong working relationship with Mnuchin

Yellen testimony Q&A continues

We've created a lot of jobs but pay isn't rising rapidly
The jobs market is leaving particular classes of workers disadvantaged
In some sense, I think we have enough jobs

22
Fed / Re: Federal Reserve Yellen Humphrey Hawkins Monetary Policy Day 2
« on: February 15, 2017, 11:41:34 AM »
Yellen speaks to the House Financial Services Committee in her second day of Humphrey Hawkins testimony

021517 -- “Monetary Policy and the State of the Economy” (EventID=105590)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YEl6pZwApWM

Yellen Comments:

Economic performance has been quite disappointing
We're quite close I would say to achieving our labor market objectives
Productivity growth has been very disappointing
We're quite close to achieving our goals
Expect to continue removing monetary policy accommodation by raising short term rates
Start of shrinking balance sheet will depend on economy
Fed will discuss reinvestment policy in greater detail
Labor market 'essentially' where it needs to be
I look forward to a strong working relationship with Mnuchin

23
Breaking News / Distillate Stocks & Demand - EIA Oil Inventories #TCOIL
« on: February 15, 2017, 11:36:16 AM »
Distillate stocks fell by -0.689 mbbls to 170.06 mbbls, stocks are currently 7.682 mbbls higher YOY. @EnergyBasis



Distillate demand fell by -0.057 mbpd to 3.853 mbpd, demand is currently 0.371 mbpd higher YOY. @EnergyBasis


24
Trailing 4 wk averages @DigStic


25
Breaking News / Week Over Week Stock Change
« on: February 15, 2017, 11:30:35 AM »
Week Over Week Stock Change

The Table @DigStic


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