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1
Breaking News / EIA Reports Weekly -89 Bcf Draw Natural Gas Storage
« on: February 23, 2017, 06:44:14 AM »
EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report Report Date: 2/23/17
Release Time: Thursday 23 Feb 2017 - 16:30 GMT 10:30 ET

Same channel, Natural gas continued to sell all week to under 2.55 and March April to -.14 as demand collapsed.   Demand continues to suffer on warmer weather the saving grace is LNG exports hum along with Mexico exports steady.  Last week’s 114-Bcf draw from storage was the smallest draw in February, ever. The surprise again was in the the south-central region. At this pace flows will reverse to injection mode around mid-March, and not April the traditional end-of-season mark.

Market Expectations
Actual - 89 Bcf* Prior -114 Bcf*
Consensus Forecast  -84 Bcf
Cons. Range: -77 to -101 Bcf
EIA swap: -84 to -85 @ CT 15.13
Last Week's Report -87 Bcf #TCNG
 



Bentek
Quote
Bentek Flow Model settled at -84 Bcf and the S/D Model at 85 Bcf. It was warm last week folks. “The largest week-on-week changes in storage activity are estimated to have occurred in the Midwest and south-central storage regions. In the Midwest, sample withdrawal activity fell by 10.2 Bcf, compared to the previous week with over half of the decline coming from the ANR and NGPL systems, which withdrew 4.8 and 2.9 Bcf less than the previous week, respectively, as demand in the region fell significantly, by an average 3.4 Bcf/d in the midcon market cell region. In the south-central region, which surprised with a much smaller than anticipated withdrawal last week, sample withdrawal activity decreased by 11.6 Bcf with most of the decrease being accounted for by the nonsalt facility sample and the NNG and SSC systems in particular,”

Analysts Forecasts

Gabe Harris, WoodMac: -101 Bcf
Andy Weissman, EBW: -100 Bcf
GWDD Model: -96 Bcf
UBS: -95 Bcf
Bloomberg Flow Model: -92 Bcf
Robry825: -79 Bcf
Schneider Electric: -79 Bcf
Charlie Fenner,  Macquarie: -79 Bcf
Reza Haidari, TR Analytics: -77 Bcf

Brynne Kelly @BrynneandRic
Natural Gas Storage Futures weekly EIA storage futures 2/22 (EIA Swap)


Peter Marrin ‏@PeterMarrin 


Current Storage Level vs. Last Year & 5-Yr
Current Storage Level: 2,445 Bcf
Storage 2016/Same Week: 2,748

More Energy News

EIA Oil Inventories +9527K Crude Build +2846K Gasoline Build
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report February 2017
Devon Energy $DVN Earnings Beat on EPS and Revenue
Diamondback Energy $FANG Earnings Beat EPS, Revenue
Power Demand Losses see Heating and Cooling Company Watsco $WSO Miss Earnings
Permian Producer Pioneer Natural Resources PXD Gives us Look at Shale
BP Misses Earnings Targets, DeepWater Horizon Weighs
Diamond Offshore Drilling $DO Earnings Beat, Concern Over Oil Price
Atwood Oceanics $ATW Misses on Earnings, Slight Beat on Revenue
Phillips 66 PSX Misses Earnings on Falling Refinery Margins
Weatherford $WFT Reports Smaller Loss, Up 5% on Improved Liquidity
Valero $VLO Earnings Beat Estimates
Marathon Petroleum $MPC Beats on Earnings, Accelerates Speedway Review
Anadarko $APC Earnings Misses, Beats on Revenue
Positive Energy Correlation with Mexico, Texas and Canada
Australia LNG Exports Surge to Hit $1.9 Billion Record
Exxon Mobil $XOM Earnings Miss on Dry Gas Impairment Charge
Chevron $CVX Earnings Disappoint, Downstream down 65%
Aluminum Maker Alcoa $AA Miss on EPS But Higher Volume & Revenue
Halliburton $HAL Earnings Mixed as International Revenue Lower
Weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage -119 Bcf #TCNG
Shale Fracking Firm Keane Group's $FRAC First IPO in 2017
Japan Ties Up 25 Year Extension on Abu Dhabi Oil Concessions
CONSOL Energy $CNX Earnings Miss, Loses $237 million on Hedges Shares down 8.5%
Royal Dutch Shell $RDS.A Weaker Earnings on Refining Margins, Production Higher
ConocoPhillips $COP First Revenue Gain Since 2014, Increased CapEX
General Electric $GE Earnings Miss on Weak Oil & Gas Revenue
Schlumberger $SLB Earnings Show Strong MidEast & North America Activity
Commodities Position Limits Mandate Scrapped by US House
Another Milestone for Iran Oil, Vitol does $1 Bln Pre-Finance Deal
Which Company Will Russia Oil Production Cuts Come From?

Further Crude Oil Analysis
#OOTTNews .

From the Traders Community News Desk

2
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data for the week ended February 17, 2017

DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report Date: 2/17/17
Release Time: Thursday 23 Feb 2017 - 17:00 GMT 11:00 ET


Market Expectations
Crude +564K vs exp Build+3300k Prior +9527K API   -880k
Cushing vs exp Draw-1943k Prior -702k API -1730k
Gasoline -2628K vs exp Draw -1600k Prior  +2846K API -823k
Distillate -4924K vs exp Draw -1100k Prior-689K API -4230k
Refinery utilization  exp -1.1 exp -0.1
Weekly production +0.3%  to 9,001,000 bpd from 8,977,000
Imports -1390k
Note in bbls *exp = Reuters poll est except Cushing

View Prev Week Report & Analysis.
 


DOE Estimates via @EnergyBasis

NB: Based off of 11-Yr Avg Distillate stocks draw, then build through the beginning of January also "Historically" #Gasoline stocks build now through end of February

EnergyBasis @EnergyBasis
11-Yr Avg (in mbbls) for Week Ending February 17, 2017
Crude +1.72
Gasoline -1.59
Distillate -1.07

EIA Prep via @DigStic



API via Marketwatch

Ahead of API crude oil futures settle at $53.59/bbl⬇- $0.74. -1.36%. $CL_J7 volume: ~547k

Quote
The American Petroleum Institute late Wednesday reported a 884,000 barrel decline in U.S. crude supplies for the week ended Feb. 17, according to sources. Analysts and traders polled by The Wall Street Journal expected a consensus gain of 3.4 million barrels. API also reported a decline of 893,000 barrels of gasoline and a 4.3 million barrel decline in distillates. Analysts expected a decline in gasoline stockpiles of 1.2 million barrels and a decline of distillates of 400,000 barrels. The API report precedes the more closely watched Energy Information Administration report on Thursday. After the report, crude oil for April CLJ7, +1.44% delivery rose to $53.90 a barrel in electronic trading, following a day in which crude futures snapped a three-session winning streak to settle at $53.59 a barrel.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/api-reports-inventory-declines-in-crude-oil-gasoline-sources-2017-02-22


** Note with the unreliability of the API numbers highlighted by its constant debacles we offer you the bare bones of that report.


More Energy News

CONSOL Energy $CNX Earnings Miss, Loses $237 million on Hedges Shares down 8.5%
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO ) Q4 Earnings Above Estimates
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What to Expect From Anadarko $APC Earnings This Week   
Exxon Mobil $XOM Earnings Miss on Dry Gas Impairment Charge
Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) Earnings Preview
ConocoPhillips (COP) Earnings Preview
Chevron $CVX Earnings Disappoint, Downstream down 65%
Busy Aerospace and Defense Earnings Out; $LMT $BA $RTN $NOC $TXT $GD
Aluminum Maker Alcoa $AA Miss on EPS But Higher Volume & Revenue
Halliburton $HAL Earnings Mixed as International Revenue Lower
Weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage -119 Bcf #TCNG
What to Expect From ECB Meeting & Draghi Ahead of President Trump
Last FOMC Beige Book & Yellen Speech Before President Trump l
What to Expect From Schlumberger $SLB Earnings Friday
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report January 2017
Shale Fracking Firm Keane Group's $FRAC First IPO in 2017
Japan Ties Up 25 Year Extension on Abu Dhabi Oil Concessions
Commodities Position Limits Mandate Scrapped by US House
Another Milestone for Iran Oil, Vitol does $1 Bln Pre-Finance Deal
Which Company Will Russia Oil Production Cuts Come From?
Nigeria Awards 39 Oil Contracts
US Oil Rigs Continue to Rise Add 2 to 525 for 9th Week says Baker Hughes

Check out OOTTNews.com for the latest news and data on oil markets.

From TradersCommunity Research

3
Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari at a Q&A event, addressing market and banking risks

- Dodd Frank hasn't solved too big to fail
- If there was another crisis, tax payers would still have to bail out the banks
- Stock market crash wouldn't have the same effect as a housing market crash
- The fed's balance sheet will be reduced in the not too distant future
- Balance sheet will probably stay higher than previously due to nature of economy now

LiveStream: https://www.minneapolisfed.org/livestream-of-qa-with-neel-kashkari


 

Have a Plan
Back in November Kashkari unveiled a plan to prevent future government bailouts by forcing the largest U.S. banks to hold so much capital that they would probably decide to break up into smaller parts. Kashkari's plan would also penalize large asset managers, with the idea that so-called "shadow banks" can create systemic risks similar to that of big lenders.

Quote
"We expect that institutions whose size doesn't meaningfully benefit their customers will be forced to break themselves up," I believe the biggest banks are still TBTF and continue to pose a significant, ongoing risk to our economy," Kashkari said during a speech at the Economic Club of New York in November.

Kashkari has made "too big to fail" his signature issue since being appointed head of the Minneapolis Fed last January. He has held symposiums on the topic to get views from policymakers, academics and industry leaders about the best way to prevent future bailouts.

He is aformer Goldman Sachs  banker who administered the U.S. Treasury Department's bailout program during the financial crisis that erupted in 2008, Kashkari has positioned himself as a reformed Wall Street banker who knows best how to fix the problem. He also ran for governor in California in 2014, but has declined to comment on future political ambitions.

Dodd-Frank advocates have argued that existing regulations already prevent future bank bailouts. Capital and liquidity requirements are now much higher, leverage has come down, and big banks are required to undergo annual stress tests and maintain plans for how they would wind themselves down in the event of a failure. But the Minneapolis Fed proposal argues there is still a 67 percent chance of bailouts happening again over the next century. Kashkari's plan would reduce the likelihood to roughly 9 percent, according to the proposal.

A group of so-called "shadow banks," with more than $50 billion in assets, like Blackrock Inc (BLK.N) would face a tax of at least 1.2 percent on their debt.

The Treasury would play a role in implementing the rule. If a bank or fund is above the asset threshold but the Treasury Secretary does not certify that it is not "systemically important," it would face even tougher requirements.

However, banks with less than $10 billion in assets would see looser regulations, since they do not pose a threat to the U.S. economy, Kashkari said. Insurers would also escape the rule because their funding model is different.

Kashkari said he was "sympathetic" to the idea of loosening other regulations on banks if his plan is implemented.


Energy Earnings News

Permian Producer Pioneer Natural Resources PXD Gives us Look at Shale
BP Misses Earnings Targets, DeepWater Horizon Weighs
What to Expect From Diamond Offshore Drilling $DO Earnings This Week
Atwood Oceanics $ATW Misses on Earnings, Slight Beat on Revenue
Phillips 66 PSX Misses Earnings on Falling Refinery Margins
Weatherford $WFT Reports Smaller Loss, Up 5% on Improved Liquidity
Valero $VLO Earnings Beat Estimates
Marathon Petroleum $MPC Beats on Earnings, Accelerates Speedway Review
Anadarko $APC Earnings Misses, Beats on Revenue
CONSOL Energy $CNX Earnings Miss, Loses $237 million on Hedges Shares down 8.5%
Exxon Mobil $XOM Earnings Miss on Dry Gas Impairment Charge
Royal Dutch Shell $RDS.A Weaker Earnings on Refining Margins, Production Higher
ConocoPhillips $COP First Revenue Gain Since 2014, Increased CapEX
Chevron $CVX Earnings Disappoint, Downstream down 65%
Busy Aerospace and Defense Earnings Out; $LMT $BA $RTN $NOC $TXT $GD
Aluminum Maker Alcoa $AA Miss on EPS But Higher Volume & Revenue
Halliburton $HAL Earnings Mixed as International Revenue Lower
General Electric $GE Earnings Miss on Weak Oil & Gas Revenue
Schlumberger $SLB Earnings Show Strong MidEast & North America Activity
Union Pacific Railways Shares Rally On Earnings & Optimistic Guidance
Delta Airlines Upbeat on Outlook But Cautions on Rising Fuel Costs
MSC Industrial Direct $MSM Shares up 6% After Earnings Guidance
Iconic WD-40 $WDFC Earnings Miss Expectations, Shares Slip 6 percent 

Trade Smart

KnovaWave

4
Breaking News / EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage -114Bcf #TCNG
« on: February 15, 2017, 02:04:33 PM »
EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report Report Date: 2/16/17
Release Time: Thursday 16 Feb 2017 - 16:30 GMT 10:30 ET

Natural gas continued to sell all week to under 2.90 and March April to -.11 as demand collapsed. It appears the norm is EIA has been higher than market expectations all year.  Demand continues to suffer on warmer weather the saving grace is LNG exports hum along with Mexico exports steady.  Last week's draw of 147 increased storage deficit relative to last year by around 313 Bcf with a surplus relative to five-year average just under 50 Bcf. Week on week, demand dropped nearly 3 Bcf/d, the bulk of which was across residential, commercial and industrial sectors. Since September, weather has been in-line with last year’s unusually warm Winter and 10 percent warmer than the five-year average.

Market Expectations
Actual -114 Bcf* Prior -147 Bcf*
Consensus Forecast  -124 Bcf
Cons. Range: -116 to -133 Bcf
EIA swap: -124 to -125 @ CT 15.13
Last Week's Report -87 Bcf #TCNG
 

* Reclassifications from working gas to base gas resulted in decreased working gas stocks of approximately 5 Bcf in the Pacific region for the week ending February 3, 2017. The implied flow for the week is a decrease of 147 Bcf to working gas stocks. The reclassification from -152 happened in the Pacific region, where a shift of that size is significant indeed.



Bentek

Quote
Bentek S/D Model is 131-Bcf pull while the Flow Model is far lower at -121 Bcf. “Week on week, US demand is estimated to have dropped by approximately 2.7 Bcf/d. LNG feed gas also ticked higher on the week, totaling 2.4 Bcf higher compared to the Feb. 2 storage week. Overall, temperatures over most of the country, excluding the midcontinent, were warmer to significantly warmer than the previous week’s temperatures with the major rescomm
demand center of the Northeast cell region averaging 2.1 degrees Fahrenheit higher at 4.1 degrees F above normal.
The largest week on week change from last week’s EIA reported values, compared to this week’s Bentek forecasts, is expected to  have taken place in the East and Midwest regions due to the substantially lower demand.

However, if last week’s 5 Bcf reclassification from working gas to base gas is taken into consideration, as is done with
the EIA’s “net-change” measure, the Pacific region is expected to report a withdrawal 11 Bcf lower than last week, though only 8 Bcf was actually withdrawn from storage during the Feb. 3 storage week. Sample activity in every EIA region except for south-central region showed a smaller net withdrawal compared to the previous week.

Analysts Forecasts

Bloomberg S/D Model: -133 Bcf
TFS: -131 Bcf
Bentek S/D Model: -131 Bcf
UBS: -130 Bcf
Andy Weissman, EBW: -129 Bcf
Kilduff Report: -129 Bcf
Reza Haidari, TR Analytics: -119 Bcf
Robry825: -119 Bcf
Gabe Harris, WoodMac: -119 Bcf
Bloomberg Flow Model: -116 Bcf
Raymond James: -116 Bcf

Brynne Kelly @BrynneandRic
Natural Gas Storage Futures weekly EIA storage futures 2/14 (EIA Swap)


Peter Marrin ‏@PeterMarrin 

.@SNLEnergy survey points to 126-Bcf #natgas storage withdrawal, which could be the last triple-digit draw of season http://bit.ly/2lS91eM



Current Storage Level vs. Last Year & 5-Yr
Current Storage Level: 2,559 Bcf
Storage 2016/Same Week: 2,884

More Energy News

EIA Oil Inventories +9527K Crude Build +2846K Gasoline Build
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report February 2017
Devon Energy $DVN Earnings Beat on EPS and Revenue
Diamondback Energy $FANG Earnings Beat EPS, Revenue
Power Demand Losses see Heating and Cooling Company Watsco $WSO Miss Earnings
Permian Producer Pioneer Natural Resources PXD Gives us Look at Shale
BP Misses Earnings Targets, DeepWater Horizon Weighs
Diamond Offshore Drilling $DO Earnings Beat, Concern Over Oil Price
Atwood Oceanics $ATW Misses on Earnings, Slight Beat on Revenue
Phillips 66 PSX Misses Earnings on Falling Refinery Margins
Weatherford $WFT Reports Smaller Loss, Up 5% on Improved Liquidity
Valero $VLO Earnings Beat Estimates
Marathon Petroleum $MPC Beats on Earnings, Accelerates Speedway Review
Anadarko $APC Earnings Misses, Beats on Revenue
Positive Energy Correlation with Mexico, Texas and Canada
Australia LNG Exports Surge to Hit $1.9 Billion Record
Exxon Mobil $XOM Earnings Miss on Dry Gas Impairment Charge
Chevron $CVX Earnings Disappoint, Downstream down 65%
Aluminum Maker Alcoa $AA Miss on EPS But Higher Volume & Revenue
Halliburton $HAL Earnings Mixed as International Revenue Lower
Weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage -119 Bcf #TCNG
Shale Fracking Firm Keane Group's $FRAC First IPO in 2017
Japan Ties Up 25 Year Extension on Abu Dhabi Oil Concessions
CONSOL Energy $CNX Earnings Miss, Loses $237 million on Hedges Shares down 8.5%
Royal Dutch Shell $RDS.A Weaker Earnings on Refining Margins, Production Higher
ConocoPhillips $COP First Revenue Gain Since 2014, Increased CapEX
General Electric $GE Earnings Miss on Weak Oil & Gas Revenue
Schlumberger $SLB Earnings Show Strong MidEast & North America Activity
Commodities Position Limits Mandate Scrapped by US House
Another Milestone for Iran Oil, Vitol does $1 Bln Pre-Finance Deal
Which Company Will Russia Oil Production Cuts Come From?

Further Crude Oil Analysis
#OOTTNews .

From the Traders Community News Desk

5
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data for the week ended February 10, 2017

DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report Date: 2/10/17
Release Time: Wednesday 15 Feb 2017 - 16:30 GMT 10:30 ET


Market Expectations
Crude +9527K vs exp Build+3200k Prior 13830k API  +9900k
Cushing -702k vs exp Draw-571k Prior +1143k API -1270k
Gasoline +2846K vs exp Draw -1200k Prior -869k API +717k
Distillate  -689K vs exp Draw -1200k Prior29k API +1500k
Refinery utilization  vs exp - 0.3 Prior-0.5%
Weekly production  Prior 8.978m

Imports
Note in bbls *exp = Reuters poll est except Cushing

View Prev Week Report & Analysis.
 


DOE Estimates via @EnergyBasis

NB: Based off of 11-Yr Avg this is the last week Distillate stocks draw, then build through the beginning of January
also "Historically" #Gasoline stocks build now through end of February

EIA Prep via @DigStic


API via Marketwatch

Ahead of API crude oil futures settle at $53.20/bbl.⬆+ $0.27 +0.51% with volume: ~432k

Quote
The American Petroleum Institute late Tuesday reported a larger-than-expected climb of 9.9 million barrels in U.S. crude supplies for the week ended Feb. 10, according to sources. Analysts polled by S&P Global Platts forecast a rise of 3.25 million barrels. The API data also showed a climb of 717,000 barrels in gasoline supplies and an increase of 1.5 million barrels in distillates, sources said. Supply data from the Energy Information Administration will be released Wednesday morning. March crude CLH7, +0.17% was at $52.95 a barrel in electronic trading, down from the contract’s settlement of $53.20 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-down-as-api-data-show-us-crude-supplies-up-99-million-barrels-last-week-sources-2017-02-14

** Note with the unreliability of the API numbers highlighted by its constant debacles we offer you the bare bones of that report.


More Energy News

CONSOL Energy $CNX Earnings Miss, Loses $237 million on Hedges Shares down 8.5%
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO ) Q4 Earnings Above Estimates
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What to Expect From Anadarko $APC Earnings This Week   
Exxon Mobil $XOM Earnings Miss on Dry Gas Impairment Charge
Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) Earnings Preview
ConocoPhillips (COP) Earnings Preview
Chevron $CVX Earnings Disappoint, Downstream down 65%
Busy Aerospace and Defense Earnings Out; $LMT $BA $RTN $NOC $TXT $GD
Aluminum Maker Alcoa $AA Miss on EPS But Higher Volume & Revenue
Halliburton $HAL Earnings Mixed as International Revenue Lower
Weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage -119 Bcf #TCNG
What to Expect From ECB Meeting & Draghi Ahead of President Trump
Last FOMC Beige Book & Yellen Speech Before President Trump l
What to Expect From Schlumberger $SLB Earnings Friday
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report January 2017
Shale Fracking Firm Keane Group's $FRAC First IPO in 2017
Japan Ties Up 25 Year Extension on Abu Dhabi Oil Concessions
Commodities Position Limits Mandate Scrapped by US House
Another Milestone for Iran Oil, Vitol does $1 Bln Pre-Finance Deal
Which Company Will Russia Oil Production Cuts Come From?
Nigeria Awards 39 Oil Contracts
US Oil Rigs Continue to Rise Add 2 to 525 for 9th Week says Baker Hughes

Check out OOTTNews.com for the latest news and data on oil markets.

From TradersCommunity Research

6
Reuters is reporting that President Donald Trump will meet Wednesday with the chief executive officers of eight large retailers to discuss tax reform and infrastructure improvements.

The meeting will include:
Target (TGT) CEO Brian Cornell
Best Buy (BBY) CEO Hubert Joly
Gap Inc (GPS) CEO Art Peck
Autozone Inc (AZO) CEO William Rhodes
Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc (WBA) CEO Stefano Pessina
J.C. Penney (JCP) CEO Marvin Ellison
Jo-Ann Stores LLC [NEDLEJ.UL] CEO Jill Soltau
Tractor Supply Co (TSCO) CEO Gregory Sandfort
 

Retailers are in opposition to the border adjustment tax. The tax proposal would cut corporate income tax to 20 percent from 35 percent, exclude export revenue from taxable income and impose a 20 percent tax on imports.

More at Reuters: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-retail-ceos-exclusive-idUSKBN15T2OO

More News

EIA Oil Inventories 13.830M Crude Build -0.869M Gasoline Draw #TCOIL
Positive Energy Correlation with Mexico, Texas and Canada
US Oil Rigs Continue to Rise Add 2 to 525 for 9th Week says Baker Hughes

Check out OOTTNews.com for the latest news and data on oil markets.

From TradersCommunity Research

7
Economy / Canada House Prices Largest 12-month Increase Since 2007
« on: February 14, 2017, 07:56:58 AM »
January Teranet Canada house price index +13.0% y/y vs +12.3% prior

There has been much ado about Canadian house prices, from bubbles to overseas taxes in the past year what the Canadian housing data from Teranet and Banque Nationale the impact is outside the curve. The Canadian dollar clearly has had an impact.

Largest 12-month increase since 2007, +12.3% y/y Prior
Prices up 0.5% m/m vs 0.3% prior
 

The increase exceeded the countrywide average in:
Hamilton (1.1%),
Toronto (0.8%)
Montreal (0.8%).

It lagged the average in:
Vancouver (0.3%),
Victoria (0.2%),
Calgary (0.1%)
Quebec City (0.1%).

Halifax prices were flat.

Prices were down from the month before in:
Winnipeg (−0.7%),
Ottawa-Gatineau (−0.7%)
Edmonton (−0.1%).

http://www.housepriceindex.ca/default.aspx


More Canada News

EIA Oil Inventories 13.830M Crude Build -0.869M Gasoline Draw #TCOIL
Positive Energy Correlation with Mexico, Texas and Canada
US Oil Rigs Continue to Rise Add 2 to 525 for 9th Week says Baker Hughes

Check out OOTTNews.com for the latest news and data on oil markets.

From TradersCommunity Research

8
TASS reports Russian Minister of Energy Alexander Novak told reporters that Russia will decided in April or May whether an agreement on global oil output cuts between OPEC and non-OPEC producers, set to end on June 31.

Novak also said that he planned to meet his Saudi Arabia counterpart Khalid al-Falih during the CERAWeek energy conference in Houston in March.

Novak was speaking at an announcement that the next meeting of the OPEC countries and non-OPEC cartel countries that are party to production cut agreement is due in Kuwait on March 22-23.
 

The ministerial control committee was set up at the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to monitor implementation of the agreements on crude production cuts sealed by OPEC and non-OPEC countries.

More Energy News

OPEC Ministerial Oil Production Monitoring Meeting Set March 22-23 in Kuwait
What to Expect From Diamondback Energy $FANG Earnings (Rea
EIA Reports Weekly -152 Bcf Draw Natural Gas Storage #TCNG
EIA Oil Inventories 13.830M Crude Build -0.869M Gasoline Draw #TCOIL
National Oilwell Varco $NOV Reports Lower Loss, High Hopes For Permian
Permian Producer Pioneer Natural Resources PXD Gives us Look at Shale
BP Misses Earnings Targets, DeepWater Horizon Weighs
What to Expect From Diamond Offshore Drilling $DO Earnings This Week
Atwood Oceanics $ATW Misses on Earnings, Slight Beat on Revenue
Phillips 66 PSX Misses Earnings on Falling Refinery Margins
Weatherford $WFT Reports Smaller Loss, Up 5% on Improved Liquidity
Anadarko $APC Earnings Misses, Beats on Revenue
CONSOL Energy $CNX Earnings Miss, Loses $237 million on Hedges Shares down 8.5%
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO ) Q4 Earnings Above Estimates
Positive Energy Correlation with Mexico, Texas and Canada
Australia LNG Exports Surge to Hit $1.9 Billion Record
What to Expect From Anadarko $APC Earnings This Week   
Exxon Mobil $XOM Earnings Miss on Dry Gas Impairment Charge
CONSOL Energy $CNX Earnings Miss, Loses $237 million on Hedges Shares down 8.5%
Royal Dutch Shell $RDS.A Weaker Earnings on Refining Margins, Production Higher
ConocoPhillips $COP First Revenue Gain Since 2014, Increased CapEX
Chevron $CVX Earnings Disappoint, Downstream down 65%
Busy Aerospace and Defense Earnings Out; $LMT $BA $RTN $NOC $TXT $GD
Aluminum Maker Alcoa $AA Miss on EPS But Higher Volume & Revenue
Halliburton $HAL Earnings Mixed as International Revenue Lower
What to Expect From Schlumberger $SLB Earnings Friday
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report January 2017
Shale Fracking Firm Keane Group's $FRAC First IPO in 2017
Japan Ties Up 25 Year Extension on Abu Dhabi Oil Concessions
Commodities Position Limits Mandate Scrapped by US House
Another Milestone for Iran Oil, Vitol does $1 Bln Pre-Finance Deal
Which Company Will Russia Oil Production Cuts Come From?

Check out OOTTNews.com for the latest news and data on oil markets.

From TradersCommunity Research

9
The next meeting of the OPEC countries and non-OPEC cartel countries that are party to production cut agreement is due in Kuwait on March 22-23. Russia's Minister of Energy Alexander Novak announced the meeting on Saturday.

The Monitoring Committee
3 ministers from OPEC countries; Algeria, Kuwait and Venezuela
2 ministers from non-OPEC countries;Russia and Oman.

Quote
"The meeting will take place on March 22-23, a meeting of the technical council at the expert level will be in Vienna on February 21-22, the meeting of ministers - in Kuwait," he said.
 

The ministerial control committee was set up at the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to monitor implementation of the agreements on crude production cuts sealed by OPEC and non-OPEC countries.

More Energy News

EIA Oil Inventories 13.830M Crude Build -0.869M Gasoline Draw #TCOIL
National Oilwell Varco $NOV Reports Lower Loss, High Hopes For Permian
Permian Producer Pioneer Natural Resources PXD Gives us Look at Shale
BP Misses Earnings Targets, DeepWater Horizon Weighs
What to Expect From Diamond Offshore Drilling $DO Earnings This Week
Atwood Oceanics $ATW Misses on Earnings, Slight Beat on Revenue
Phillips 66 PSX Misses Earnings on Falling Refinery Margins
Weatherford $WFT Reports Smaller Loss, Up 5% on Improved Liquidity
Anadarko $APC Earnings Misses, Beats on Revenue
CONSOL Energy $CNX Earnings Miss, Loses $237 million on Hedges Shares down 8.5%
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO ) Q4 Earnings Above Estimates
Positive Energy Correlation with Mexico, Texas and Canada
Australia LNG Exports Surge to Hit $1.9 Billion Record
What to Expect From Anadarko $APC Earnings This Week   
Exxon Mobil $XOM Earnings Miss on Dry Gas Impairment Charge
CONSOL Energy $CNX Earnings Miss, Loses $237 million on Hedges Shares down 8.5%
Royal Dutch Shell $RDS.A Weaker Earnings on Refining Margins, Production Higher
ConocoPhillips $COP First Revenue Gain Since 2014, Increased CapEX
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Busy Aerospace and Defense Earnings Out; $LMT $BA $RTN $NOC $TXT $GD
Aluminum Maker Alcoa $AA Miss on EPS But Higher Volume & Revenue
Halliburton $HAL Earnings Mixed as International Revenue Lower
Weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage -119 Bcf #TCNG
What to Expect From ECB Meeting & Draghi Ahead of President Trump
Last FOMC Beige Book & Yellen Speech Before President Trump l
What to Expect From Schlumberger $SLB Earnings Friday
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report January 2017
Shale Fracking Firm Keane Group's $FRAC First IPO in 2017
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From TradersCommunity Research

10
Gas Storage / EIA Reports Weekly -152 Bcf Draw Natural Gas Storage
« on: February 09, 2017, 07:26:22 AM »
EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report Report Date: 2/9/17
Release Time: Thursday 9 Feb 2017 - 16:30 GMT 10:30 ET

Natural gas was sold off after the Superbowl to trade under $3.00 on ICE to consolidate all week ahead of this report. It appears the norm is EIA has been higher than market expectations all year.  EIA reported last week south-central region drew 10 Bcf while Bentek was at 4 Bcf. Last week’s weather was 20 percent colder than last year, but 1 percent warmer than the five-year average.

Demand continues to suffer on warmer weather, LNG exports hum along with Mexico exports steady.  A draw around 150 increases storage deficit relative to last year by around 320 Bcf with surplus relative to five-year average just under 50 Bcf.

Market Expectations
Actual  -152 Bcf* Prior -87 Bcf
Consensus Forecast  - 152Bcf
Cons. Range: -139 to -160 Bcf
EIA swap: -153 to -155 @ CT 15.13
* Reclassifications from working gas to base gas resulted in decreased working gas stocks of approximately 5 Bcf in the Pacific region for the week ending February 3, 2017. The implied flow for the week is a decrease of 147 Bcf to working gas stocks.
Last Week's Report -87 Bcf #TCNG
 




Bentek

Quote
Bentek Flow Model  -144 Bcf and the S/D Model was a hair stronger at -150 Bcf. The week-on-week change in residential-commercial demand was by far the largest driver of increased storage activity when compared to the previous week, up an average 8.3 Bcf/d at 44.6 Bcf/d, Bentek says. Much cooler temperatures than last week in the largest res-comm markets, the midcontinental Market and the Northeast, led to 3.5 and 4.3 Bcf/d gains in sector demand, respectively, as temperatures averaged a respective 11.7 and 9.1 degrees’ Fahrenheit cooler.

“In addition to the gains in res-comm, industrial demand, power demand and LNG feedgas demand combined averaged about 1 Bcf/d higher than the previous week,” Out of all the cell regions, only the Rockies and Southwest experienced warmer average temperatures than the week before.

Analysts Forecasts

Tim Evans, CITI Futures: -160 Bcf
Kilduff Report: -159 Bcf
The Woz, ICAP: -157 Bcf
Bloomberg S/D Model: -156 Bcf
Donnie Sharp, Huntsville Utils: -156 Bcf
Jared Hunter: -147 Bcf
The Desk Editor: -145 Bcf
UBS: -145 Bcf
Bloomberg Flow Model: -143 Bcf
Genscape: -139 Bcf

Brynne Kelly @BrynneandRic
Natural Gas Storage Futures weekly EIA storage futures 2/8 (EIA Swap)


Peter Marrin ‏@PeterMarrin 
.@SNLEnergy survey implies #natgas storage data will return to triple-digit withdrawals http://bit.ly/2luyURB



Current Storage Level vs. Last Year & 5-Yr

Current Storage Level: 2,711 Bcf
Storage 2016/Same Week: 2,977

More Energy News

EIA Oil Inventories 13.830M Crude Build -0.869M Gasoline Draw #TCOIL
National Oilwell Varco $NOV Reports Lower Loss, High Hopes For Permian
Permian Producer Pioneer Natural Resources PXD Gives us Look at Shale
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Atwood Oceanics $ATW Misses on Earnings, Slight Beat on Revenue
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ConocoPhillips $COP First Revenue Gain Since 2014, Increased CapEX
Chevron $CVX Earnings Disappoint, Downstream down 65%
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Aluminum Maker Alcoa $AA Miss on EPS But Higher Volume & Revenue
Halliburton $HAL Earnings Mixed as International Revenue Lower
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Check out OOTTNews.com for the latest news and data on oil markets.

From TradersCommunity Research

11
US companies have been rushing to export oil and refined products to China, however Reuters report that China’s 2016 oil demand grew at the slowest pace in at least three years despite a record pace of imports in 2016. Not a surprise given China's economy is growing at the slowest pace in 26 years, at just 6.7 percent in 2016.

- China’s implied oil demand growth slowed  to 2.5 percent in 2016, from 3.1 percent in 2015 and 3.8 percent in 2014.
- China diesel consumption falling to it's first annual drop in 2016
- China gasoline consumption eased from 9.1 percent in 2015, 13 percent gain in 2014 to just 3.6 percent higher in 2016.

Back in August China Refiners Ship Record Gasoline via Teapots & New Regulations.
 

Diesel consumption also was affected by flooding in Q216. Liquefied petroleum gas usage rose 24 percent and kerosene demand rose 9 percent from a year ago.

The expectation is that demand will resume in 2017 with a rebounding economy and a reviving mining industry.

Reuters implied oil demand is a sum of net imports of refined fuel and domestic crude throughput.

Source: Reuters

More Energy News

EIA Oil Inventories 13.830M Crude Build -0.869M Gasoline Draw #TCOIL
National Oilwell Varco $NOV Reports Lower Loss, High Hopes For Permian
Permian Producer Pioneer Natural Resources PXD Gives us Look at Shale
BP Misses Earnings Targets, DeepWater Horizon Weighs
What to Expect From Diamond Offshore Drilling $DO Earnings This Week
Atwood Oceanics $ATW Misses on Earnings, Slight Beat on Revenue
Phillips 66 PSX Misses Earnings on Falling Refinery Margins
Weatherford $WFT Reports Smaller Loss, Up 5% on Improved Liquidity
Anadarko $APC Earnings Misses, Beats on Revenue
CONSOL Energy $CNX Earnings Miss, Loses $237 million on Hedges Shares down 8.5%
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO ) Q4 Earnings Above Estimates
Positive Energy Correlation with Mexico, Texas and Canada
Australia LNG Exports Surge to Hit $1.9 Billion Record
What to Expect From Anadarko $APC Earnings This Week   
Exxon Mobil $XOM Earnings Miss on Dry Gas Impairment Charge
CONSOL Energy $CNX Earnings Miss, Loses $237 million on Hedges Shares down 8.5%
Royal Dutch Shell $RDS.A Weaker Earnings on Refining Margins, Production Higher
ConocoPhillips $COP First Revenue Gain Since 2014, Increased CapEX
Chevron $CVX Earnings Disappoint, Downstream down 65%
Busy Aerospace and Defense Earnings Out; $LMT $BA $RTN $NOC $TXT $GD
Aluminum Maker Alcoa $AA Miss on EPS But Higher Volume & Revenue
Halliburton $HAL Earnings Mixed as International Revenue Lower
Weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage -119 Bcf #TCNG
What to Expect From ECB Meeting & Draghi Ahead of President Trump
Last FOMC Beige Book & Yellen Speech Before President Trump l
What to Expect From Schlumberger $SLB Earnings Friday
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report January 2017
Shale Fracking Firm Keane Group's $FRAC First IPO in 2017
Japan Ties Up 25 Year Extension on Abu Dhabi Oil Concessions
Commodities Position Limits Mandate Scrapped by US House
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Check out OOTTNews.com for the latest news and data on oil markets.

From TradersCommunity Research

12
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data for the week ended February 3, 2017

DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report Date: 2/3/17
Release Time: Wednesday 7 Feb 2017 - 16:30 GMT 10:30 ET


Market Expectations
Crude 13830k vs exp Build+2500k Prior +6466k API  +14230k
Cushing +1143k vs exp Build+1099k Prior -1245 API +624k
Gasoline -869k vs exp Build+1500k Prior +3866k  API +2900k
Distillate 29k vs exp Build+500k Prior+1568k API +1370k
Refinery utilization -0.5% vs exp - 0.2 to 88% Prior -0.1%
Weekly production 8.978m vs Prior -0.046 mbpd to 8.915 mbpd currently -0.299 mbpd lower YOY.

Imports Prior +530k
Note in in bbls *exp = Reuters poll est except Cushing

View Prev Week Report & Analysis.
 


DOE Estimates via @EnergyBasis

NB: Based off of 11-Yr Avg this is the last week Distillate stocks draw, then build through the beginning of January
also "Historically" #Gasoline stocks build now through end of February







EIA Prep via @DigStic


API via Marketwatch

Ahead of API crude oil futures settle at $$52.17/bbl⬇-$0.84. -1.58%

Quote
The American Petroleum Institute late Tuesday reported a much bigger-than-expected increase of 14.2 million barrels in U.S. crude supplies for the week ended Feb. 3, according to sources. Analysts polled by S&P Global Platts forecast a climb of 2.5 million barrels. The API data also showed a rise of 2.9 million barrels in gasoline supplies and a climb of 1.4 million barrels in distillates, sources said. Supply data from the Energy Information Administration will be released Wednesday morning. March crude CLH7, -2.47% was at $51.69 a barrel in electronic trading, down from the contract’s settlement of $52.17 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-fall-as-api-data-show-us-crude-supplies-up-more-than-14-million-barrels-last-week-sources-2017-02-07

** Note with the unreliability of the API numbers highlighted by its constant debacles we offer you the bare bones of that report.


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Valero Energy Corporation (VLO ) Q4 Earnings Above Estimates
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What to Expect From Anadarko $APC Earnings This Week   
Exxon Mobil $XOM Earnings Miss on Dry Gas Impairment Charge
Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) Earnings Preview
ConocoPhillips (COP) Earnings Preview
Chevron $CVX Earnings Disappoint, Downstream down 65%
Busy Aerospace and Defense Earnings Out; $LMT $BA $RTN $NOC $TXT $GD
Aluminum Maker Alcoa $AA Miss on EPS But Higher Volume & Revenue
Halliburton $HAL Earnings Mixed as International Revenue Lower
Weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage -119 Bcf #TCNG
What to Expect From ECB Meeting & Draghi Ahead of President Trump
Last FOMC Beige Book & Yellen Speech Before President Trump l
What to Expect From Schlumberger $SLB Earnings Friday
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Commodities Position Limits Mandate Scrapped by US House
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Check out OOTTNews.com for the latest news and data on oil markets.

From TradersCommunity Research

13
Breaking News / Brent Oil Basis Matrix Under Review at ICE and Platts
« on: February 04, 2017, 10:17:11 AM »
The two largest oil contracts traded in the financial markets are Brent and WTI. The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil contract (WTI) is traded on NYMEX and based off the Cusihng, OK Hub. The other is Brent oil is traded on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) platform and based on a North Sea oil price matrix of four grades, Brent, Forties, Oseberg and Ekofisk. 

Brent has long been questioned on its validity given falling reserves on its bases and questions of financial manipulation thereto. It is vulnerable to major traders maniplulation given the limited number of cargoes each month.
 

After many years of questions ICE has hired Energex Partners to revamp how to recalculate that matrix or use another basis altogether. ICE has said the review is likely to mean broadening out to bring in crude produced outside the North Sea region.

In the past energy and commodity price publisher S&P Global Platts has led reviews given Platts daily price assessments used to benchmark oil prices.  This move shows ICE is heeding the requests of market participants and responding to the record futures and options volumes on its rival WTI products.



Quote
"The work we are doing with Energex Partners is forward looking and recognizes that the benchmark needs to continue to evolve.  Over time, this is likely to mean broadening out to bring in crude produced outside the North Sea region.” David Peniket, the president of ICE Futures Europe, said in an interview.

China

Another aspect to ICE's move is that China has been looking to a contract more relevant to Asia. The Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) has failed thus far with a new benchmark however there is an obvious opportunity here. The global benchmark futures contract on Brent crude clearly don't really reflect the reality of crude trading in Asia.  Concerns with yuan exposure and convertibility back to dollars and risks associated with regulation in China have held back a Chinese product.


The dark blue curve equals the sum of the three Hubbert cycles. 1) is best viewed as surge production from the Forties, Brent, Piper and Ninian Fields when they came on stream. Source: Stanford

Platts is also independently looking at changing its Brent benchmark given its aged basis. Platts opened a formal consultation last year on a proposal to add new grades to the Brent benchmark. Platts has said it is considering adding the Norwegian Troll crude grade.

The Dubai Mercantile Exchange (DME) operates a contract on Oman crude that has struggled to become a leading benchmark. The daily volume of contracts on the DME averaged just 8,762 lots in 2016, Brent futures on ICE averaged about 57,600 last year.

Energex Partners was founded by former Morgan Stanley oil traders.

Brent Market Specs

TRADING SCREEN PRODUCT NAME Brent Crude Futures
TRADING SCREEN HUB NAME North Sea
CONTRACT SYMBOL B
CONTRACT SIZE 1,000 barrels
UNITS OF TRADING  Any multiple of 1,000 barrels
CURRENCY US Dollars and cents
TRADING PRICE One cent ($0.01) per barrel

POSITION LIMITS

The Brent crude future is a cash-settled contract. The Exchange's daily position management regime requires that all positions in any contract month must be reported to the exchange on a daily basis. The Exchange has powers to prevent the development of excessive positions or unwarranted speculation or any other undesirable situation and may take any steps necessary to resolve such situations including the ability to mandate members to limit the size of such positions or to reduce positions where appropriate

DELIVERY/SETTLEMENT BASIS

The ICE Brent Crude futures contract is a deliverable contract based on EFP delivery with an option to cash settle against the ICE Brent Index price for the last trading day of the futures contract. The Exchange shall publish a cash settlement price (the ICE Brent Index price) on the next trading day following the last trading day for the contract month.

Ice Brent Infographic
https://www.theice.com/publicdocs/ICE_Brent_Infographic.pdf

Source: ICE, Platts, BBG

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CONSOL Energy $CNX Earnings Miss, Loses $237 million on Hedges Shares down 8.5%
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ConocoPhillips (COP) Earnings Preview
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Busy Aerospace and Defense Earnings Out; $LMT $BA $RTN $NOC $TXT $GD
Aluminum Maker Alcoa $AA Miss on EPS But Higher Volume & Revenue
Halliburton $HAL Earnings Mixed as International Revenue Lower
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Last FOMC Beige Book & Yellen Speech Before President Trump l
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Check out OOTTNews.com for the latest news and data on oil markets.

From TradersCommunity Research

14
Economy / What The January US Employment Report Tells Us
« on: February 02, 2017, 01:27:05 PM »
US Labor Department January Employment
Release Time: Friday 3 Feb 2017 - 14:30 GMT 8:30 ET
January's employment report is always a punt, it has seasonally adjustment guesstimates following the casual holiday jobs, new year hiring are traditionally slow, so use this report as it best can be as a a guesstimate. But the algorithms  won't see it like that. This was also a new Presidential inauguration month so there are guesses on hiring decisions there also.

NFP Betting line
Nonfarm payrolls: +175,000 (+156,000 prior)
Unemployment rate: 4.7% (4.7% prior)
Average hourly earnings month-on-month: +0.3% (0.4% prior)
Average hourly earnings year-on-year: +2.8% (2.8% prior)
Average weekly hours worked: 34.3 (34.3 prior)
Change in manufacturing payrolls: 5,000 (17,000 prior)
 

Then we got his, if Friday’s report is worse than expected, will the street buy because it’ll think the Federal Reserve raising interest rates will be put on hold or will a  strong number do the opposite and cause the stock market pain or simple good times ahead?

Last Month: First Look at 2017 Data, NFP Jobs, PMI, ISM, Trade & FOMC Minutes

Latest US Employment Related Reports

Released Thursday Feb 2, 2017

US Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (Jan) -45.934K (prev 33.627K)

US Initial Jobless Claims (WoW) 28-Jan: 246K (est 250K; prev 259K)
US Continuing Claims (WoW) 21-Jan: 2064K (est 2063K; rev prev 2103K)

US Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) Q4 P: 1.30% (est 1.00%; prev 3.10%)
US Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) Q4 P: 1.7% (est 1.90%; prev 0.70%)

ADP report
Released Wednesday Feb 1, 2017

Showed solid job growth. ADo said businesses added 246,000 jobs in January. Economists had expected ADP to record 168,000 new jobs, according to a Bloomberg survey.

In January, small businesses added 62,000 jobs, mid-size ones,102,000 and large companies, 83,000. Professional and business services led the job gains with 71,000. Trade, transportation and utilities added 63,000; education and health care, 47,000; leisure and hospitality, 17,000; and construction, 25,000. Manufacturers added 15,000 jobs.

Quote
“The U.S. labor market is hitting on all cylinders and we saw small and midsized businesses perform exceptionally well,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute.

Remember though ADP and Labor Dept use different measures. Think API and EIA Oil reports.

More Economic and  Energy News

EIA Oil Inventories Crude 6466k Build Gasoline 3866K Build #TCOIL
Marathon Petroleum $MPC Beats on Earnings, Accelerates Speedway Review
Anadarko $APC Earnings Misses, Beats on Revenue
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO ) Q4 Earnings Above Estimates
Positive Energy Correlation with Mexico, Texas and Canada
Australia LNG Exports Surge to Hit $1.9 Billion  
CONSOL Energy $CNX Earnings Miss, Loses $237 million on Hedges Shares down 8.5%
Exxon Mobil $XOM Earnings Miss on Dry Gas Impairment Charge
Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) Earnings Preview
ConocoPhillips (COP) Earnings Preview
Chevron $CVX Earnings Disappoint, Downstream down 65%
Aluminum Maker Alcoa $AA Miss on EPS But Higher Volume & Revenue
Halliburton $HAL Earnings Mixed as International Revenue Lower
General Electric $GE Earnings Miss on Weak Oil & Gas Revenue
Schlumberger $SLB Earnings Show Strong MidEast & North America Activity
Union Pacific Railways Shares Rally On Earnings & Optimistic Guidance
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report January 2017
Shale Fracking Firm Keane Group's $FRAC First IPO in 2017

Check out OOTTNews.com for the latest news and data on oil markets.

From TradersCommunity Research Desk

15
Gas Storage / EIA Reports Weekly -87 Bcf Draw Natural Gas Storage
« on: February 01, 2017, 05:26:58 PM »
EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report Report Date: 2/2/17
Release Time: Thursday 2 Feb 2017 - 16:30 GMT 10:30 ET

Natural gas has continued to batter bulls after weather forecast confuses in a saturated speculative long market. The medium and long range forecasts over the past quarter have been akin more to election pollsters. Weather wise we have a cooler north and warmer push south, not a demand burner. Last week’s weather was 28 percent warmer than last year and 32 percent warmer than the five-year average. Since September, weather has been about 10 percent warmer than the five-year average. We aren't going to speculate over here, other than planning our next fishing trip. Bentek says its Flow Model is at -84 and its S/D Model at -80 Bcf.

Market Expectations
Actual -87 Bcf Prior - 119 Bcf
Consensus Forecast  - 84Bcf
Cons. Range: -77 to -98 Bcf
EIA swap: -82 to -83 @ CT 15.13

Last Week's Report -119 Bcf #TCNG
 




Bentek

Quote
Bentek says its Flow Model is at -84 and its S/D Model at -80 Bcf. “The storage week was characterized by well-above-normal temperatures across much of the nation, with the large res-comm demand centers of the Northeast and Midcon Market cell regions averaging 13.4 and 14.8 degrees above normal, respectively. The Midcon producing, Southeast and Texas cell regions all averaged more than 7 degrees above normal while the Pacific Northwest, Southwest and Rockies region averaged slightly colder than normal. Total res-comm estimates on a US level averaged only 36.3 Bcf/d, a 5.1 Bcf/d decrease from the 41.4 Bcf/d averaged over the course of the previous week, while power burn estimates held nearly flat at 20.2 Bcf/d.

Meanwhile, industrial demand totaled about 3.3 Bcf lower over the course of the week compared to the previous week. Total demand from all sectors is estimated to have averaged 5.6 Bcf/d, or around 39.5 Bcf in total, lower than the previous week. Every EIA region is expected to post a withdrawal equal to or less than the previous week’s total. Week over week, the largest change in storage activity is forecast to have taken place in the EIA East region, where a withdrawal of 27 Bcf is forecast compared to an EIA-reported withdrawal of 43 Bcf the previous week.

Analysts Forecasts

Schneider Electric: -98 Bcf
GWDD Model: -95 Bcf
Gabe Harris, WoodMac: -90 Bcf
PointLogic Energy: -89 Bcf
Reuters Survey: -88 Bcf
Kilduff Report: -77 Bcf
Raymond James: -77 Bcf
Bloomberg Survey: -77 Bcf
Genscape: -74 Bcf
Andy WEissman, EBW: -74 Bcf
Bloomberg S/D Model: -67 Bcf

Brynne Kelly @BrynneandRic
Natural Gas Storage Futures weekly EIA storage futures 1/31 (EIA Swap)



Peter Marrin ‏@PeterMarrin 

Natgas storage data to show another step down in rate of erosion, according to @SNLEnergy survey http://bit.ly/2kiH4wd



Current Storage Level vs. Last Year & 5-Yr

Current Storage Level: 2,798 Bcf
Storage 2016/same week: 3,146
(Delta: -348 Bcf or 11.1%)
Storage 5-Yr Avg/same week: 2,818
(Delta: -20 Bcf or 0.7%)

More Energy News

EIA Oil Inventories Crude 6466k Build Gasoline 3866K Build #TCOIL
Marathon Petroleum $MPC Beats on Earnings, Accelerates Speedway Review
Anadarko $APC Earnings Misses, Beats on Revenue
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO ) Q4 Earnings Above Estimates
Positive Energy Correlation with Mexico, Texas and Canada
Australia LNG Exports Surge to Hit $1.9 Billion  
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Check out OOTTNews.com for the latest news and data on oil markets.

From TradersCommunity Research Desk

16
Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) released it's fourth-quarter earnings and revenue surged past expectations, the latest indication that the energy sector could be recovering. Marathon just last month announced plans to accelerate so-called drop-down deals and conduct a strategic review of its Speedway assets, ts brand of company-owned and operated convenience stores and gas stations.

Earnings: Quarterly profit of $227 million, or 43 EPS up from $187 million or 35 cents EPS a year earlier. Revenue was up 10.7% to $17.28 billion. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected a profit of 26 cents a share on revenue of $14.54 billion.

Reaction: Marathon Petroleum NYSE: MPC Pre-market: 49.10P +1.05 +2.19%

 


https://alphastreet.com/app#/company/MPC

4Q16 MPC Income Breakdown

Refining & Marketing segment income from operations was $219MM compared to $179MM in 4Q15.
Speedway segment income from operations of $165MM compared to $135MM in 4Q15.
Midstream segment income from operations was $245MM compared to $94MM in 4Q15.

Marathon said it would accelerate a drop-down of assets, to give a nearly $1.4 billion of annual earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization to MPLX LP, a master limited partnership formed by Marathon Petroleum to buy, develop and operate midstream assets.

The company also said a special committee of its board would conduct a review of Speedway.  This was seen as a response  to hedge fund Elliott Management Corp. raising concerns about the company.

Guidance:

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ConocoPhillips (COP) Earnings Preview
Chevron $CVX Earnings Disappoint, Downstream down 65%
Busy Aerospace and Defense Earnings Out; $LMT $BA $RTN $NOC $TXT $GD
Aluminum Maker Alcoa $AA Miss on EPS But Higher Volume & Revenue
Halliburton $HAL Earnings Mixed as International Revenue Lower
McDonald's Earnings Beat on Strong International Sales
General Electric $GE Earnings Miss on Weak Oil & Gas Revenue
Schlumberger $SLB Earnings Show Strong MidEast & North America Activity
IBM Earnings Give Strong Guidance But Global & Systems Segments Hurting
American Express AXP Misses CostCo as Earnings Fall But Talks Up 2017
Union Pacific Railways Shares Rally On Earnings & Optimistic Guidance
UnitedHealth $UNH Strong Optum Health Earnings, Less ObamaCare Exchange
Morgan Stanley $MS Earnings Beat on Revenue and Profit
What to Expect From Netflix $NFLX Earnings This Week 
JPMorgan Chase $JPM Earnings Beats on Trading Income Rise
Goldman Sachs $GS Earnings Jump On Mortgage Settlements & Trading
Bank of America $BAC Earnings Beats EPS, Misses Revenue
Wells Fargo $WFC Earnings Lower, Loan Growth Affected by Reverse Mortgages
Delta Airlines Upbeat on Outlook But Cautions on Rising Fuel Costs
Homebuilder KB Home $KBH Reports Strong Revenue and Orders
MSC Industrial Direct $MSM Shares up 6% After Earnings Guidance
Money in Spuds, ConAgra Potato Spinoff Lamb Weston $LW Earnings Beat
Iconic WD-40 $WDFC Earnings Miss Expectations, Shares Slip 6 percent 

Live From The Pit

17
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data for the week ended January 27, 2017

DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report Date: 2/1/17
Release Time: Wednesday 1 Feb 2017 - 16:30 GMT 10:30 ET


Market Expectations
Crude +6466k vs exp Build+3063k Prior 2840K API+5830K
Cushing -1245 vs exp Draw -1548k Prior -284k API -906k
Gasoline +3866k vs exp Build+940k Prior +6796K API +2860k
Distillate +1568k vs exp Draw -894k Prior +76K  API +2270k
Refinery utilization  vs exp -0.5% Prior -2.4%
Weekly production -0.046 mbpd to 8.915 mbpd currently -0.299 mbpd lower YOY.

Imports +530k prior -648k
Note in in bbls *exp = Reuters poll est except Cushing

View Prev Week Report & Analysis.
 


DOE Estimates via @EnergyBasis

NB: Based off of 11-Yr Avg this is the last week Distillate stocks draw, then build through the beginning of January
also "Historically" #Gasoline stocks build now through end of February





EIA Prep via @DigStic



API via Marketwatch

Quote
The American Petroleum Institute late Tuesday reported an increase of 5.8 million barrels in U.S. crude supplies for the week ended Jan. 27, according to sources. Analysts polled by S&P Global Platts forecast a climb of 2.2 million barrels. The API data also showed a rise of roughly 2.9 million barrels in gasoline supplies and a climb of 2.3 million barrels in distillates, sources said. Supply data from the Energy Information Administration will be released Wednesday morning. March crude CLH7, +0.40% was at $52.84 a barrel in electronic trading, nearly unchanged from the contract’s settlement of $52.81 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/api-data-show-weekly-rise-of-58-million-barrels-in-us-crude-supplies-sources-2017-01-31

Ahead of API crude oil futures settle at $52.81/bbl +$0.18 +0.34%

** Note with the unreliability of the API numbers highlighted by its constant debacles we offer you the bare bones of that report.


More Energy News

CONSOL Energy $CNX Earnings Miss, Loses $237 million on Hedges Shares down 8.5%
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO ) Q4 Earnings Above Estimates
Positive Energy Correlation with Mexico, Texas and Canada
Australia LNG Exports Surge to Hit $1.9 Billion Record
What to Expect From Anadarko $APC Earnings This Week   
Exxon Mobil $XOM Earnings Miss on Dry Gas Impairment Charge
Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) Earnings Preview
ConocoPhillips (COP) Earnings Preview
Chevron $CVX Earnings Disappoint, Downstream down 65%
Busy Aerospace and Defense Earnings Out; $LMT $BA $RTN $NOC $TXT $GD
Aluminum Maker Alcoa $AA Miss on EPS But Higher Volume & Revenue
Halliburton $HAL Earnings Mixed as International Revenue Lower
Weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage -119 Bcf #TCNG
What to Expect From ECB Meeting & Draghi Ahead of President Trump
Last FOMC Beige Book & Yellen Speech Before President Trump l
What to Expect From Schlumberger $SLB Earnings Friday
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report January 2017
Shale Fracking Firm Keane Group's $FRAC First IPO in 2017
Japan Ties Up 25 Year Extension on Abu Dhabi Oil Concessions
Commodities Position Limits Mandate Scrapped by US House
Another Milestone for Iran Oil, Vitol does $1 Bln Pre-Finance Deal
Which Company Will Russia Oil Production Cuts Come From?
Nigeria Awards 39 Oil Contracts
US Oil Rigs Continue to Rise Add 2 to 525 for 9th Week says Baker Hughes

Check out OOTTNews.com for the latest news and data on oil markets.

From TradersCommunity Research

18
Join Bloomberg for an in-depth view of  The Future of Cyber Security Spotlight on Oil and Gas. The event will conclude with a reception to meet the speakers and connect with colleagues.

Welcome to registration for The Future of Cyber Security: Spotlight on Oil and Gas.

Participation is by invitation only and invitations are not transferable. Please register below using the invitation code received with your invitation.
 
For further assistance or to request an invitation, please email blive@bloomberg.net.

Conference Registration
https://www.cvent.com/events/the-future-of-cyber-security-spotlight-on-oil-and-gas/registration-670ee813a69846d08deaa4d597c7efe7.aspx?r=4aa52b5e-7437-4f43-9673-2359c52a12b3&link=reg-topce
 

Use the following code when you register via Laura Blewitt @laurablewitt

The registration code is HOUSTONVIP

19
CONSOL Energy (CNX) reports Q4 results, missed estimates and announcing a $237 million unrealized loss on commodity derivative instruments used for hedging. The stock plummeted over 8.5% on the news. Highlights were Record Quarterly Production of 101.3 Bcfe, total Production Costs Fall to $2.27 per Mcfe and Total Liquidity Improves to $1.73 billion

Earnings: -$1.42 in Q4 vs. $0.18 same period last year, -$321.19 million in Q4 vs. $45.34 million same period last year.  Analysts projected $0.01 per share Revenue: $462.02 million in Q4 vs. $665.98 million in same period last year.

Reaction: CONSOL Energy NYSE: CNX Jan 31 16.70 -1.60 (-8.74%)
 

CNX Writeoffs

- Recorded a $237 million unrealized loss on commodity derivative instruments, related to changes in the fair market value of existing hedges on a mark-to-market basis;
- Recorded a $5 million loss related to pension settlement, caused by lump sum distributions from the plan, which increased due to the sale of the Buchanan Mine in the first quarter of 2016; and
- Recorded $4 million in transaction fees associated with the Marcellus Shale joint venture dissolution.

Guidance:

Nicholas J. DeIuliis, president and CEO.

Quote
"During the quarter, CONSOL further executed upon strategic goals with an additional ownership drop into CONE Midstream Partners LP and the dissolution of the Marcellus Shale joint venture. These successful transactions, in part, helped generate approximately $349 million in free cash flow [1 ] during the quarter, while bringing the full year 2016 free cash flow to approximately $957 million. During the quarter, organic free cash flow from continuing operations, along with proceeds from asset sales, helped to pay down our revolving credit facility and increase our liquidity position by over $300 million to $1.73 billion. Our even stronger liquidity position and balance sheet allow us to continue to focus on opportunistically allocating capital to prudently develop our tier one assets, while simultaneously providing us with the flexibility and optionality to divest assets in order to pull value forward."

E&P Division:

During the fourth quarter of 2016, CONSOL's E&P Division produced 101.3 Bcfe, or an increase of 6% from the 95.5 Bcfe produced in the year-earlier quarter. During the quarter, total production costs decreased to $2.27 per Mcfe, compared to the year-earlier quarter of $2.37 per Mcfe, driven primarily by reductions to transportation, gathering and compression and lease operating expense as a result of the overall increase in production.

E&P Division capital expenditures decreased in the fourth quarter to $30.1 million, compared to $48.7 million spent in the third quarter of 2016, primarily due to less completion activity.

Marcellus Shale production volumes, including liquids, in the 2016 fourth quarter were 56.5 Bcfe, approximately 14% higher than the 49.7 Bcfe produced in the 2015 fourth quarter. Marcellus Shale total production costs were $2.20 per Mcfe in the just-ended quarter, which is a $0.18 per Mcfe improvement from the fourth quarter of 2015 of $2.38 per Mcfe, driven primarily by a reduction to transportation, gathering and compression and lease operating expense.

CONSOL Energy's Utica Shale production volumes, including liquids, in the 2016 fourth quarter were 22.2 Bcfe, up approximately 7% from 20.7 Bcfe in the year-earlier quarter. Utica Shale total production costs were $1.86 per Mcfe in the just-ended quarter, which is a $0.02 per Mcfe improvement from the fourth quarter of 2015 total production costs of $1.88 per Mcfe. The cost improvement across the Utica Shale was driven, in part, by reductions to lease operating expenses, partially offset by an increase to transportation, gathering and compression expenses in the wet gas areas.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/consol-energy-reports-fourth-quarter-results-record-quarterly-production-of-1013-bcfe-total-production-costs-fall-to-227-per-mcfe-total-liquidity-improves-to-173-billion-2017-01-31

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Schlumberger $SLB Earnings Show Strong MidEast & North America Activity
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Goldman Sachs $GS Earnings Jump On Mortgage Settlements & Trading
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Wells Fargo $WFC Earnings Lower, Loan Growth Affected by Reverse Mortgages
Delta Airlines Upbeat on Outlook But Cautions on Rising Fuel Costs
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MSC Industrial Direct $MSM Shares up 6% After Earnings Guidance
Money in Spuds, ConAgra Potato Spinoff Lamb Weston $LW Earnings Beat
Iconic WD-40 $WDFC Earnings Miss Expectations, Shares Slip 6 percent 

Live From The Pit

20
LNG / Australia LNG Exports Surge to Hit $1.9 Billion Record
« on: January 30, 2017, 04:21:58 PM »
Australian liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports have risen at the backend of 2016. November saw record revenues of $1.9 billion. The significance is heightened by laggard oil prices, on which LNG contracts are based and a steady Australian dollar. Between July and November, monthly Australian LNG revenues grew from $1.39bn to $1.9bn, according to the Bureau of Statistics.

- Second of three Gorgon Western Australian LNG trains almost full capacity
- Exports from Gladstone as Origin Energy’s Australian Pacific LNG plant nears full production

Australia has seen a $200bn LNG infrastructure investment since the mining boom days pitching Australia towards being the world’s biggest LNG exporter. There will around 80 million tonnes of annual capacity by 2020.
 

This revenue surge does come in an environment low contract prices amid post crash economies and the US entering the LNG export game. BP believes the US will eventually overtake Australia as the world’s biggest LNG exporter.  Much to do with President Donald Trump and the new America First Energy policy to support more shale gas production.

Friday during Chevron's earnings conference call  CEO John Watson said the Gorgon Barrow Island plant's second train had accelerated by industry standards, after a trouble-plagued start-up of the first train.

Quote
“Learnings from train 1 were applied to train 2 and, consequently, train 2 ramped up over 90 per cent of capacity within a week and continues to exceed expectations,” “Train 3 is also expected to benefit — construction is complete and we’re well into start-up and commissioning and we expect first LNG early in the second quarter.”

On long-term LNG demand CEO Watson says it remained healthy.

Quote
“If you look at some of the ¬environmental objectives, particularly throughout Asia, it’s ¬actually some encouraging signs. I temper that with the understanding that we’ve got projects that are coming online, but the long-term trend for LNG demand is good because it’s -competitive on price in many locations and it certainly has desirable environmental characteristics.”



Chevron said Gorgon will produce 15 million tonnes of LNG a year from its three trains. Strong output from the APLNG plant at Gladstone is also expected tomorrow when Origin reports December quarter production.

The Australian reports that Gladstone Port statistics show LNG exports from the Queensland harbour jumped from 1.5 million tonnes in October to 1.75 million tonnes in December from the three big LNG plants now operating on Curtis Island. Australian Energy Market Operator data show that APLNG has nearly doubled its gas intake since September, just before the second of APLNG’s two trains started. APLNG is operated by a joint venture between ConocoPhillips and Origin.

The  huge exports is good news for Australia’s balance of trade and the LNG companies however there is some criticism. On the east coast of Australia, (where the majority of the population lies) domestic gas buyers have been clammering action on high prices as the mega plants are taking gas from Bass Strait and forcing  the local market to compete with the international buyers.

Concern Government Not Getting LNG Revenue

There is also concern that the government, and hence the people are not getting any significant revenue flow through from the LNG flows. This comes from the $200bn investment and it's  high construction costs, which the LNG projects write off. Indeed Minister Scott Morrison has announced a review of the tax by Treasury and to report back by April.

While a cold-weather driven boost in Asian LNG spot prices in recent months has benefited the small amount of uncontracted Australian cargoes it has also drawn cargoes from the US. The US just started exporting last year. This  underscores the real threat from low-cost shale gas on global prices.

BP’s released its global energy outlook last week and predicted the US would become the world’s biggest LNG producer, producing about 18 billion cubic feet of LNG per day by 2035 (144 million tonnes). This is up from a forecast of 14bcf/d in 2015 and compares to its forecast for Australia of 17bcf/d or 130 million tonnes a year.

No doubt this still represents huge LNG growth for Australia. BP thinks there will be another 50 million tonnes of capacity added in Australia before 2035.

More on Gorgon: https://www.chevron.com/projects/gorgon

Source: The Australian, Chevron conference Call, TreadersCommunity

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Check out OOTTNews.com for the latest news and data on oil markets.

From TradersCommunity Research

21
Valero VLO / What to Expect With Valero $VLO Earnings This Week
« on: January 30, 2017, 08:44:55 AM »
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) based in San Antonio, Texas reports fourth-quarter results on Jan 31, 2017 before the open. Valero is the largest independent refiner and marketer of petroleum products in the U.S., dominating the central and southwestern U.S. and eastern Canada with refined petroleum products. VLO is in a good position to take advantage of discounts on Gulf Coast crude oil, compared with more expensive Brent crude. Investors will look to see if the asphalt terminal leaks at one of Valero’s Corpus Christi refineries affects Valero’s fourth-quarter results.

Valero Consensus Forecast
Analysts expect EPS of 78 compared with 62 cents during the fourth quarter of 2015. Revenue is expected to fall from $18.8 billion in Q415 to $17.4 billion, a 7.2 percent year-over-year decline.
 

VLO reports with Andarko Petroleum (APC) after the market close following Exxon Mobil (XOM) that morning and ahead of ConocoPhillips (COP) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A).

Valero had to deal with dealt with the possible leaking of toxic materials from an asphalt terminal it leases to Ergon Asphalt & Emulsions at one of Valero’s Corpus Christi refineries in the fourth quarter.  Corpus Christi banned the drinking and use of city water to hundreds of thousands of residents for up to three days and spawned more than a dozen civil lawsuits against Valero by individuals and businesses. It is unclear how the incident may affect Valero’s fourth-quarter results.

Since the Non-OPEC Countries Joined OPEC in a Global Oil Production Cut followed by the Donald Trump Election victory there has been a  run higher on oil stocks. This in turn has helped fuel the run in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Index to Record highs.

The rally has been fueled by expectations for easier regulations including a possible repeal of DoddFrank and infrastructure spending. The Federal Reserve decision to raise rates has also helped banks.  The new surge in home prices has also buoyed optimism for the mortgage business and banks profits thereto.

Valero Earnings Report Last Quarter

In Q3 eported better-than-expected earnings mainly attributable to lower operating expenses.

Looking Back a Year ago

The story for oil majors a year ago wasn't pretty after the collapse of oil prices. These bottomed in February 2016 and we have seen a steady rise in both crude oil and natural gas prices.



What Analysts Think

Barclays’ analyst Paul Y. Cheng
Research note Thursday, rated as “overweight,”

Quote
“We think Valero is poised to benefit from the growing U.S. refiner cost and crude input advantage,” allowing refiners to capture additional share of the export market, 

Goldman Sachs
Valero rated as “buy-rated,”

Raymond James
Report Thursday that “relative expectations for the quarter appeared to be the most positive for Valero.”

Quote
Raymond James said in its report that the new administration and a freeze on new regulations by President Donald Trump has relieved some of the “burden of RINs” and that “lower costs will certainly be helpful from a competitive standpoint.”

However, if gasoline has to fill the gap left by less ethanol, the benefit to refiners may be muted.

Credit Suisse

Valero it as rating “neutral”

Quote
unplanned outages at Valero refineries in Corpus Christi, Texas City and Meraux, Louisiana, “might ding earnings.” The investment firm added that “rising crude prices should also take a small bite” out of profits.

A complaint by Valero has been the costs associated with ethanol blending mandated by the Environmental Protection Agency, which requires a 10 percent ethanol mix in gasoline. Executives have said Valero — which has to pay for Renewable Identification Numbers in lieu of blending ethanol into its finished gasoline products — could spend up to $850 million on RINs in 2016.

Raymond James said in its report that the new administration and a freeze on new regulations by President Donald Trump has relieved some of the “burden of RINs” and that “lower costs will certainly be helpful from a competitive standpoint.” However, if gasoline has to fill the gap left by less ethanol, the benefit to refiners may be muted.

Anadarko Petroleum Corporation NYSE (APC) shares closed Friday at  70.01-1.13 (-1.59%) The stock has a 52-week range of 33.85 - 73.33 on Avg. Volume of 4,395,340.  The company’s 50-day moving average price is $70.45 and its 200-day moving average price is $61.29.

Market Cap 39.13B
Beta   1.68
PE Ratio (TTM)   -6.83
EPS (TTM)   -10.25
Earnings Date   Jan 31, 2017
Dividend & Yield 0.20 (0.29%

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Busy Aerospace and Defense Earnings Out; $LMT $BA $RTN $NOC $TXT $GD
Aluminum Maker Alcoa $AA Miss on EPS But Higher Volume & Revenue
Halliburton $HAL Earnings Mixed as International Revenue Lower
McDonald's Earnings Beat on Strong International Sales
General Electric $GE Earnings Miss on Weak Oil & Gas Revenue
Schlumberger $SLB Earnings Show Strong MidEast & North America Activity
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Wells Fargo $WFC Earnings Lower, Loan Growth Affected by Reverse Mortgages
Delta Airlines Upbeat on Outlook But Cautions on Rising Fuel Costs
Homebuilder KB Home $KBH Reports Strong Revenue and Orders
MSC Industrial Direct $MSM Shares up 6% After Earnings Guidance
Money in Spuds, ConAgra Potato Spinoff Lamb Weston $LW Earnings Beat
Iconic WD-40 $WDFC Earnings Miss Expectations, Shares Slip 6 percent 

Live From The Pit

22
Just a reminder that this week's EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report Report Date: 1/26/17 was first with new measures of sampling variability. Here's the run down from the EIA:

Quote
Starting with the release of data for the week ending January 20, 2017, EIA’s Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR) now provides information about the statistical properties of published estimates of weekly working natural gas levels and their net changes.

The methodology for the storage data itself, however, is unchanged.
 

Quote
The WNGSR provides estimates of working gas in storage—the amount of natural gas that can be withdrawn to satisfy market demand—based on a sample of storage operators in the Lower 48 states. Like other sample surveys, the WNGSR is subject to sampling error. To help users better understand sampling variability in WNGSR values, a new table provides



- The standard error for estimates of weekly net changes in working gas levels.  Standard error is a measure of the sampling variability of an estimate based on all possible samples that could have been selected using the chosen sample design.

- The coefficient of variation for estimates of weekly working gas storage levels.  The coefficient of variation, or relative standard error, presents the standard error as a percentage of the published working gas storage estimate.



From the EIA

EIA has also estimated these measures of sampling variability for all weeks since April 2015. Since that time, the standard errors for estimates of weekly net change have averaged about 2 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the Lower 48 states and about 1 Bcf for each region. The coefficients of variation for stocks are typically about 1% for the Lower 48 states, and they range between 1% and 5% for the regions. For example, the larger coefficients of variation for the working gas estimates at the salt facilities in the South Central region likely resulted from the variable activity at these high-deliverability natural gas storage facilities. In contrast, the comparatively regular activity at aquifer storage sites in the Midwest contributes to the lower coefficients of variation for the Midwest region.

The standard error can be used to construct a confidence interval centered about the estimate. For example, the published weekly estimate of the net withdrawal for January 20, 2017, is 119 Bcf, and the standard error of the net withdrawal is 2.9 Bcf. The 95% confidence interval ranges from 113 Bcf to 125 Bcf.

For the Lower 48 states, the standard errors tend to be slightly larger during weeks when net changes in natural gas inventories are relatively large in absolute value, such as those weeks when changes exceeded 100 Bcf. For the 53 report weeks ending in 2016, none had net injections that exceeded 100 Bcf, but in 10 of those weeks, net withdrawals exceeded 100 Bcf. For those 10 weeks, the standard error ranged from 2.2 Bcf to 5.5 Bcf, while the standard error ranged from 1.0 Bcf to 3.2 Bcf for the other 43 weeks.

Estimates of working gas storage reported in the WNGSR for the last week of each month precede the estimates of working gas that are reported in the Natural Gas Monthly by roughly two months. Because the estimates reported in the Natural Gas Monthly come from a census of all known storage operators, the monthly values have no sampling errors. Since April 2015, all working gas levels reported in the Natural Gas Monthly did not deviate noticeably from the 95% confidence band constructed from the WNGSR weekly estimates and their standard errors.



From the EIA: http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=29712#

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From TradersCommunity Research Desk

23
Advance US Q416 GDP +1.9% vs +2.2% expected, Prior 3.5%

Inventories added 1.0% to growth. Housing investment big but trade dragged (timely in light of recent Trump moves). Note the big surge soybean exports in Q3 reversed in Q4.

Personal consumption 2.5% as expected 2.5%, prior 3.0%
Inflation GDP price index 2.1%  +1% q/q, prior +1.7%
Core PCE 1.3% expected +1.3% q/q, prior +1.7%

Highlights
Durables +10.9%
Housing investment +10.2%
Trade: Exports -4.3% Imports +8.3%
 

Business investment +2.4%
Investment in equipment +3.1%
Business investment in IP +6.4%
Business investment in structures -5.0%
Exports -4.3%
Imports +8.3%
Inventories +48.7B vs +7.1B in Q3
Government spending +1.2%


On the year, it looks like growth was 1.9%.


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From TradersCommunity Research Desk

24
Gas Storage / Weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage -119 Bcf #TCNG
« on: January 26, 2017, 07:50:46 AM »
EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report Report Date: 1/26/17
Release Time: Thursday 26 Jan 2017 - 16:30 GMT 10:30 ET

We said expect more weather-driven algorithm volatility and surprise and here we are again.  Again last week we had a surprise,  -243 with expectations around -235, this week the mean seams around -117.  Last week’s weather was 26 percent warmer than last year and 19 warmer than the 5year average. Since September, weather has been 2 percent colder than last year and 8 percent warmer than the 5-year average.

Weather wise models have been like Flic and Flac, so won't write too much on them. Know your technical levels and the optionality and  you will be at least aware if not ahead of the surprises.

Market Expectations
Actual - 119 Bcf Prior -243 Bcf
Consensus Forecast  - 117Bcf
Cons. Range: -107 to -129 Bcf
EIA swap: -115 to -116 @ CT 15.13

 




Bentek

Quote
Bentek’s Flow Model 115-Bcf draw this week and the SD Model -116 Bcf. “A dramatic swing intemperatures compared to the previous week moved storage activity significantly, with significant declines in withdrawals in the south-central, East and Midwest regions week over week. Res-comm demand declined an estimated 11.6 Bcf/d compared to the previous week, while power burn demand fell 4.4 Bcf/d week over week. Higher natural gas prices and declining total load are the major drivers for the drop in power burn demand.

On the supply side, US production rebounded slightly from recent declines and gained 0.5 Bcf/d week over week, mostly driven by increased output from the Northeast and Texas. “The large swing in storage activity week over week creates additional risk to this week’s forecast as historically large swings in storage activity have created volatility in forecasts, especially during holiday weeks … ”

Analysts Forecasts

Schneider Electric: -129 Bcf
Tim Evans, CITI Futures: -128 Bcf
TFS: -125 Bcf
Bloomberg Flow Model: -123 Bcf
Raymond James: -122 Bcf
Genscape: -112 Bcf
Pointlogic Energy: -111Bcf
Kilduff Report: -109 Bcf
Norse Gas Marketing: -108 Bcf
Robry825: -107 Bcf

Brynne Kelly @BrynneandRic
Natural Gas Storage Futures weekly EIA storage futures 1/25 (EIA Swap)



Current Storage Level vs. Last Year & 5-Yr

Current Storage Level: 2,917 Bcf
Storage 2016/same week: 3,348
(Delta: -431 Bcf or 12.9%)
Storage 5-Yr Avg/same week: 2,994
(Delta: -77 Bcf or 2.6%)

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From TradersCommunity Research Desk

25
Japan / Japan First Trade Surplus in 6 Years on Lower Oil & Weaker Yen
« on: January 25, 2017, 08:55:51 AM »
Japan on Wednesday reported it's first trade surplus in six years in 2016. The export boost came from rebound late in the year. The import ledger benefited from persisting low oil prices.

The 4.1 trillion yen surplus in 2016 compares with a 2.8 trillion yen deficit in 2015. Exports fell 7.4 per cent from a year earlier to 70.04 trillion yen while imports dropped double, 16 per cent to 66 trillion yen.

December's data showed a strong rebound in exports to China and other Asian countries. This  suggests the money printing upticking in growth in China is filtering through supply chains across Asia.
 

We have seen a further weakening in the Japanese yen against the US dollar (USDJPY) since Donald Trump was elected president, this increased the value of exports in yen terms. The USDJPY has rallied from 101 yen at the time of the November 8 election to over 114 yen.

US President Donald Trump's decision to drop out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact (TPP) and his comments on imposing "border taxes" on some imports adds to the sustainability of external demand and uncertainties over US trade policy.

President Donald Trump's voiced concerns are over Japan's auto exports and trade surplus with the US.

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