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TradersCom
Today at 12:04:10 PM by TradersCom
Views: 365 | Comments: 2

After Fed Chair Janet Yellen's speech at Jackson Hole titled The Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Toolkit: Past, Present, and Future sent the news algorithms in turbo mode down then up and even fervent bears all bulled up on risk as they chose to ignore any thing that could mean rate hikes. Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer set the market straight on what she was (apparently trying to say in his candid speech at the Hole.

- Fischer says rate hike this year is possible
- Evidence is that the economy has strengthened
- Fed is not behind the curve on hikes
- We will not become Political forecasters

News algos hit the mind and the ES cratered as the dolalr revered (Euro from upo 70 to down 60). Incidentally that was also the initially reaction to Yellen speech, which should give you a hoit of the blind bull entitlement going in daytrading Disneyland. In saying that there is much to ignore and grasp either way in all these fed comments so stay agile and beware the rampant algos which have churned some serious losses today.
 
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TradersCom
August 25, 2016, 07:53:53 AM by TradersCom
Views: 548 | Comments: 4

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report Report Date: 8/25/16

With a 20 plus handle run up in futures prices by hurricane speculators and last week’s 5-Bcf surprise that none of the experts predicted analalts show a 2-28 Bcf range. All the whisper are at the low end (as one would expect with futures prices on a high #cynical). Medium is +18 and the ICE Swap settled at 12 last night.

Out of the big guys, Bentek’s Flow Model is  9 Bcf and Genscape is 13 Bcf.  No shock but the south-central region is the big question again this week.

Actual +11 Bcf
Consensus Forecast +18 Bcf
Cons. Range: +2-28 Bcf Bcf
EIA swap:  11-13 @ CT 7.13

 
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KnovaWave
August 24, 2016, 03:17:07 PM by KnovaWave
Views: 364 | Comments: 1

The Euro has been a slow grind for the most since Brexit, much to do with the cross currents of the British Pound and Japanese Yen as we see via the EURJPY GBPJPY & EURGBP cross rates.

Day traders tend to get caught up in the minutiae of what is going on. The rising wedge that has battled up to the breakdown level tells us a lot in the Futures market as this captures the later part of the European session and US session crossover.

Ahead of this week's Jackson Hole Symposium, where no doubt the hot air emanating from there will make any methane monitor go off the charts, it is worth noting the key levels. The play by play will they raise or not is nothing more than a distraction to feed the exchanges and bankers with fees. They last rose almost a year ago and have kept the churn going since, however in these days of instant news cycle reality is forgotten. Hence it is important to zoom out further at the charts.
 
 
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KnovaWave
August 24, 2016, 01:46:22 PM by KnovaWave
Views: 458 | Comments: 2

Natural gas futures after testing the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud and Fibonacci confluence have bounced to the top of our channel and Fibonacci confluence shown on both the 4 hour and daily time series.  The rationale has been the threat of tropical storm, some more deja vu for natty traders.

Ahead of tomorrow's inventory report from the EIA which the last few week's has been tighter than expected we sit at the top end of our channel in almost perfection Adams theory fractal rotation. The market continually stretches over 2016 with large vol and optionality plays addled by HFT algorithms. Until proven otherwise we note the channel, Fibs thereto and the monthly and weekly ichimoku settings as we have for the past year.

For shorter term stick to the 240 and 13 minute Murrey Math and Ichimoku confluences.
 
 
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TradersCom
August 24, 2016, 07:52:48 AM by TradersCom
Views: 593 | Comments: 2

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data for the week ended Aug 19

Crude  Build +2501K vs exp Draw -.455k  Prior Draw -2508k bbls API Build +4.5 mbbls
Cushing Build +375K vs -300K expvs. Prior  bbls API Build +0.417mb
Gasoline Build +36K vs exp  Draw -1166k Prior Draw -2724k  API Draw -2.2mb
Distillate  Distillates +122K vs vs exp  Build +400k Prior  Build 1939k API Draw -0.834mb
Refinery utilization   vs -0.6% exp. Prior 1.3%
Weekly production  vs 8.597m prior
Imports   Prior Crude - 211,000 bpd
*exp = Reuters poll est
 
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What’s ahead this week:
Aug 23      New Home Sales
Aug 24      MBA Mortgage Index
Aug 24      FHFA Housing Price Index
Aug 24      Existing Home Sales
Aug 24      Crude Inventories
Aug 25      Initial Claims
Aug 25      Continuing Claims
Aug 25      Durable Orders
Aug 25      Durable Orders, Ex-Transportation
Aug 25      Natural Gas Inventories
Aug 26      GDP - Second Estimate
Aug 26      GDP Deflator - Second Estimate
Aug 26      International Trade in Goods
Aug 26      Michigan Sentiment - Final



S&P 500: with 86% of companies reported, earnings up 3% YoY, on pace for first positive Q since Q3 2014.
via @MktOutperform

Macro hedge funds suddenly most optimistic on risky assets since mid-June - big & quick turn-around in positioning
via @enlundm

U.S. banks are lending to consumers at the fastest rate since 2007
via @TheBubbleBubble

$GBPUSD falls below $1.30
via @GotSanctuary